Raptor Composite Aircraft

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poormansairforce

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Mar 28, 2017
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Just an Ohioan
the entire design process becomes very very Start. Stop. Start. Stop, redo, redo, redo. Second guess. Triple check. Go back. Skip it. Skip it. Bop it. Twist it. Going once. Going twice. Insufficient Funds. Our base is under attack. Engineering!? Affirmative! Yeah? Let's Rock! Start. Stop. Redo, redo...
I'm confused....I thought those events were happening as it is now!?🤔
 

Marc Zeitlin

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Dec 11, 2015
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642
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Tehachapi, CA
There is a problem with seeking out constant advice which is even if there are knowledgeable experts, they can often have their mind made up, or will quickly arrive at a preferred solution and those are not always aligned with the direction of the project envisioned.
This is true. Ran into this a LOT with the SS2/RM2 project - every rocket motor consultant had their own view of how the universe worked and what we should do. As with Jews (the Jew says), get 5 rocket experts in a room and you'll get 17 opinions. Made for interesting meetings.

One must be enough of an expert on what they want to be able to know whether the advice is going to help or not.
And here lies the crux of the matter, and the basis for Dunning-Krueger. The less you know, the more you think you know. And the less you know, the less you know who to ask and whom to trust, UNLESS you recognize your ignorance on a subject.

...In any case that whole process does turn what seems like it should be a quick project into a 5-year project. I can see why some would build a mental barrier where they prefer to avoid asking the experts and just choose their path, right or wrong. Sometimes it works out.
Yep - true again. But not often. And the problem is, THIS project is not just "what's the optimum way to make my grass in the yard shorter", which, if you get wrong, you just have long grass - it's hard to kill yourself or your neighbor with a crappy lawnmower.

This is a safety issue, and making inappropriate decisions could kill someone, so when you just throw your hands up in the air because you made the inappropriate decision to move forward with a project that you had no business doing in the first place, the downstream decision to keep going even though you STILL don't know what you don't know after 5 years of work is just as inappropriate. Particularly if the justifications for doing so are "I don't have enough $$$ to do it right" and the sunk cost fallacy.
 

cheapracer

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Sep 8, 2013
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Australian
I can see why some would build a mental barrier where they prefer to avoid asking the experts and just choose their path, right or wrong. Sometimes it works out.
I can only see that working out when you already have a practical experience in an area and decide to go on a non-ventured path, but not for your first time.
 

pictsidhe

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Jul 15, 2014
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7,421
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North Carolina
Peter's big problem is taking the easy way of doing something. Take the turbos. He doesn't understand thermodynamics or have any aircraft turbo experience. So, he found a website to calculate his turbos for him. But, it was for ground vehicles and doesn't have a compound turbo feature. Because Peter doesn't know what he"s doing, he doesn't know how to fudge the calculator to work for his aircraft compound turbo. He has utterly wrong turbos and is completely unaware of it.

I am on my own learning curve. When I need to design something new, I learn the theory. Without the theory, I would would just be throwing stuff at the wall, with the lights off.
 

cblink.007

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Jul 7, 2014
Messages
207
Location
Texas, USA
Just the cash raised in the last month via Go Fund Me would finance the tooling to put my AV-36 into kit production
Screenshot_20200628-143515.jpg

Yeap. It would finance the production of my prototype in its entirety and get it flying. God Bless America.

So the question would have to be, is if he has already spent an undisclosed amount of money, and this $40-plus thousand fund still cannot get it in the air, will there be any expectation of a profit, selling this aircraft for just $130k? Not my business at all, but I am curious. But, with his apparent one-man show, it might be possible!

Also curious about the legal dynamics of crowdfunding. I know the terms of receiving raised funds varies across the community of crowdfunding sites. Some have serious strings attached...some do not!

#curious
 

rbarnes

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Aug 28, 2015
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82
Location
Texas
Also curious about the legal dynamics of crowdfunding. I know the terms of receiving raised funds varies across the community of crowdfunding sites. Some have serious strings attached...some do not!

#curious
GoFundMe is not crowd funding. It's internet panhandling. KickStarter is crowd funding on the promise of a future product.
And in Peter's defense he did not set it up or request it to be set up. One of his YouTube followers set it up and listed Peter as the beneficiary
 

bmcj

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Apr 10, 2007
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13,347
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Fresno, California
THIS project is not just "what's the optimum way to make my grass in the yard shorter", which, if you get wrong, you just have long grass - it's hard to kill yourself or your neighbor with a crappy lawnmower.
So, what you’re saying is that you don’t see this project ever becoming anything but an expensive lawnmower that never gets off the ground?

:popcorn:
 

cblink.007

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Jul 7, 2014
Messages
207
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Texas, USA
GoFundMe is not crowd funding. It's internet panhandling. KickStarter is crowd funding on the promise of a future product.
And in Peter's defense he did not set it up or request it to be set up. One of his YouTube followers set it up and listed Peter as the beneficiary
I assumed as such.
 

cheapracer

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Elon Musk was not rocket veteran. Didn’t stop him....
Umm, besides not actually getting his hands dirty, i.e. he manages and directs other people, are you aware of his resume?



And in Peter's defense he did not set it up or request it to be set up.
Absolutely true, it however doesn't change that it merely adds to the total monetary sum absorbed by this project. I figure that must be getting close to $5 million now, certainly over 4 mil.

That's a lot of planes that are going to have to be sold, I figure loosely 100 per year for 4 years to break even, allowing for $2 mil per year production costs.

That's if he started now with what he's got, that's not going to happen, and still leaves the question: Are 500 of these craft going to sell? I can't see it.

Velocity have sold 700 kits in the last 35 years (1985), at generally half the price, and at half the price the customer base for Velocity is exponentially far larger .
 
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Pilot-34

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Joined
Apr 7, 2020
Messages
354
And the problem is, THIS project is not just "what's the optimum way to make my grass in the yard shorter", which, if you get wrong, you just have long grass - it's hard to kill yourself or your neighbor with a crappy lawnmower.
I would beg to differ it’s very easy to kill yourself or a neighbor with a crappy lawnmower.

Keep that in mind when thinking about something like this that is infinitely more complicated and easier to kill yourself with.
 
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ScaleBirdsScott

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Feb 10, 2015
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1,222
Location
Uncasville, CT
I will concur: My friends have made quite the hobby out of taking old lawnmowers and making them into crappy lawnmowers that happen to be wicked fast on the dirt track. Even without the whirling spinny death blades these steel beasts seem mightly eager to send someone home in a mulch bag.

But for sure one has to spend extra careful times with something that flies. Which makes for rather tedious work at times. Not all should apply.
 

pictsidhe

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Jul 15, 2014
Messages
7,421
Location
North Carolina
I was cutting my grass a month ago when my crappy old mower developed massive vibration. A quick look underneath revealed 3" of the blade missing. Cutting grass on sandy soil had worn it thin and I was too cheap to do anything but keep sharpening it. I found the missing piece a week later. Stuck in a tree at neck height. Mmmm.

10" radius at 3600rpm is 315 ft/s

This is why I like to mow in a hat, shorts and steel toe boots...
 

SuperSpinach

Member
Joined
Apr 20, 2020
Messages
14
Location
France
The fix?: Add a thicker washer and use a wider nut, bahahaha! You couldn't write this stuff ...
I haven't seen the video yet but this could be so bad... How come does this guy follow the advice of people talking about stuff they don't know anything about.
Just to think that the rest of the aircraft could be designed and modified with the feedback of random people is so frightening. When I look at everything that he has done so far, I really wonder how he even got there in the first place (coming from someone who started following the build a few months ago).
Even the side stick is a mechanical nightmare. That thing (and the previous one) really shows how little he knows about mechanical tolerances and materials stress and strain.

And why is there SO much stuff to fix so late into the build of the aircraft ? Did he not get the whole model reviewed before entering the production of the prototype ? Is there no organization you have to go through in America to get your plane approved ?
 
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