# UN hails end of poisonous leaded gas use in cars worldwide

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#### akwrencher

##### Well-Known Member
HBA Supporter
Tesla had swap able, and ended the program when uptake was very low. Especially with the focus on how good fast charges have become.

Tim
Interesting. I'm going to ask for details, since swappable has been brought up for training aircraft a number of times. Did they use multiple small packs?

#### tspear

##### Well-Known Member
It was run out in CA, I never paid much attention to it since that is 3000 miles away

But yah, the original Model S was designed to swap the batteries.

#### trimtab

##### Well-Known Member
@tspear

Just a small selection of some of the challenges. There are rosier pictures out there, as rosy as one wants in the futurology of a-plane-in-every-garage-by-1960 crowd. Most people invested in the subject seem confident that this will simply all happen one way or another, or are even confident about it. I remain skeptical that a transition supported by Li ion storage will be possible without massive strains and consequences on political and environmental fronts.

Significant tech breakthroughs need to occur to prevent geopolitical and fundamental resource strains on present Li ion technologies to grow at rates that will support even the lowest rates of decarbonization that the IPCC consensus seems prudent. "Significant breakthroughs" are not "incremental improvements".

And battery prices are low. Perhaps they will get lower, but raw material prices are rising rapidly to meet demand (lithium carbonate spot prices, cobalt spot prices), although they are still not above historic highs. The transition means a truly massive effort and even 20 years is a fast racetrack. The impacts on things like stainless steel, copper, and all the other industries will reshuffle a lot of progress in a lot of regions.

At the moment, China is winning the game with its Belt and Road initiatives in the resource rich areas of the world. The State Department is only now beginning to try and scrap together a response after decades of neglect, and there is no way they can get in front of the issue at this late date. As the transition becomes more important in the next decade, this sort of positioning will determine the relative economic success or failure of large swaths of the American economy.

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#### trimtab

##### Well-Known Member
There's always looking back at MTBE. The toxicity in humans has not been well established at low levels. The toxicity to a broad range of aquatic life is pretty substantial, and it not broken down by natural mineralogical, biological, or environmental exposure...and there lies the problem.

Promises to keep the stuff from getting into waterways and groundwater has failed significantly, and created long standing problems. People simply cannot take the care necessary to ensure it isn't going to be a problem in someone's back yard. Distribution practices and procedures are just paper until the measurements are taken, and they have failed despite a lot of pointing at all the precautions that are taken.

Nonetheless, you can buy the stuff in a lot of places. It works well.

#### Dana

##### Super Moderator
Staff member
...politics run the world in spite of the math.
That's because very few politicians are capable of understanding the math. And the few who DO understand the math are counting on their constituents not understanding it.

#### Martin W

##### Well-Known Member
.

I am a retired auto tech and give this a lot of thought.

The most practical way to do it is have battery stations at the gas stations where your car battery could be popped out and a fully charged one installed in a few minutes.

I operated industrial electric forklifts for years and as soon as power was low we rolled one battery out of the machine and a fresh one in .... took about 3 minutes ... these were several thousand pound batteries.

To work in the car industry it would require standardization of battery sizes and connections .... small car would use a standardized battery .... larger cars same battery but two or three or 4 of them side by side etc.

Would require good planning , cars would have to be designed for quick battery changes , we standardized gasoline delivery worldwide so electrics could be too.

Much better to have a fresh battery available down the road than have to hope for a charger and then park for hours to get topped up.

Would also take pressure off the electrical grid ... the batteries could be charged at a lower rate and overnight etc.

Drive car into an open ended building .... attendant in a pit removes floor pan and dead battery ... installs fresh one ... floor pan back on ... customer drives out the other end.

You could drive across the country worry free.

.

#### trimtab

##### Well-Known Member
.

I am a retired auto tech and give this a lot of thought.

The most practical way to do it is have battery stations at the gas stations where your car battery could be popped out and a fully charged one installed in a few minutes.

I operated industrial electric forklifts for years and as soon as power was low we rolled one battery out of the machine and a fresh one in .... took about 3 minutes ... these were several thousand pound batteries.

To work in the car industry it would require standardization of battery sizes and connections .... small car would use a standardized battery .... larger cars same battery but two or three or 4 of them side by side etc.

Would require good planning , cars would have to be designed for quick battery changes , we standardized gasoline delivery worldwide so electrics could be too.

Much better to have a fresh battery available down the road than have to hope for a charger and then park for hours to get topped up.

Would also take pressure off the electrical grid ... the batteries could be charged at a lower rate and overnight etc.

Drive car into an open ended building .... attendant in a pit removes floor pan and dead battery ... installs fresh one ... floor pan back on ... customer drives out the other end.

You could drive across the country worry free.

.
This is essentially the system that would launch the EV revolution. Fixed battery cars would become obsolete when swappables became available. Parts lots full of old useless Teslas with fixed batteries. Range of 200 miles? Not a problem for most people if that came to be. And having a second battery that was charging up all day at home on renewables would load balance the grid.

A long trip means filling a tank several times, like swapping batteries.

Imagine simply driving over a ramp that automated the swap in 15 seconds, and a similar pit in a garage that did the same thing at home.

#### mm4440

##### Well-Known Member
The electric cool-aid is off topic and is in other threads. Getting the lead out of av-gas is the topic.

#### Martin W

##### Well-Known Member
The battery supply issue is very real. At present, the production is resource limited. It's not fabrication limited. That limit shows no signs of changing radically in the next several years. The possible growth, limited by present resource availability, cannot meet more than a small growth increment each year at present. The issue needs a magic wand to fix, and that's before examining the far more pressing EROEI issues that have not only failed to budge but gotten worse in recent years. The economic thresholds for EROEI on batteries as a whole are easily 2-3 times what they presently offer. The reality of the battery trap ensures an economic reversal.
(snip)
Hi trimtab .... my comment is not directed at you ... I simply quoted the part where you said ... "the production is resource limited" .... and you are correct. thanks.

But I want to point out a recent profoundly important happening ....... the USA has evacuated Afghanistan of course ... the Taliban have few friends in the world .... but have now wholeheartedly aligned with the Communist Chinese government. .... talk about a powerful partnership . Never happened before.

The Chinese of course have a smart and strategic benefit .... Afghanistan has large lithium reserves they will need for batteries.

.

#### Martin W

##### Well-Known Member
The electric cool-aid is off topic and is in other threads. Getting the lead out of av-gas is the topic.
Yes of course , but the lead issue has been beaten to death for years .... and the UN wants everything electric in the future so the two topics are somewhat related .

I am like you and prefer staying on topic ... but if we were purists this thread would have died off after just a few posts .... as it is , it will likely go on and on and on ..... personally I find some of the off topic info very interesting and educational . thanks.

#### Vigilant1

##### Well-Known Member
This is essentially the system that would launch the EV revolution.
As it is now, the buyer of an electric car can ignore the price of the battery wear and tear (depletion) for years as it only becomes a (very expensive) issue when the battery can no longer hold a sufficient charge.
An interesting aspect of swappable batteries is that the battery replacement cost must be incorporated into the price of every "fill up." To stay in business, the folks in the service stations who are selling/renting out the batteries will need to price the battery depletion into every swap. Whether the per-mile cost is better than gasoline may depend on the price of the batteries, how long they are lasting, the cost of the swapping procedure, and how much overhead and profit there is in this battery swapping service. Regardless, drivers of EVs with swappable batteries will get a more complete and tangible reminder of the costs of operating an EV.

Also, when you go to a service station on a trip and get a swap, you might get a great battery or one that is nearer it's end of life (just like you might get a rusty propane tank or a new one when you swap out a tank at the hardware store). So any trips would need to be planned around the lowest guaranteed capacity of the batteries being swapped

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#### mm4440

##### Well-Known Member
Speculating on future technologies is fun. It is called Science Fiction. Getting the lead out is now. Are you going to junk the the existing fleet? Re-engine all the aircraft? With what? Wait for the charging infrastructure? It is important to start the change over as soon as possible. The regulatory hammer may fall any day. The supply pipe line might take a couple of years to fill.

#### JMyers1

##### Well-Known Member
This is essentially the system that would launch the EV revolution. Fixed battery cars would become obsolete when swappables became available. Parts lots full of old useless Teslas with fixed batteries. Range of 200 miles? Not a problem for most people if that came to be. And having a second battery that was charging up all day at home on renewables would load balance the grid.

A long trip means filling a tank several times, like swapping batteries.

Imagine simply driving over a ramp that automated the swap in 15 seconds, and a similar pit in a garage that did the same thing at home.
Believe it or not this has been tried before, the Tesla model S was designed with a swappable battery. There are many reasons it doesn’t make sense, and to start with EV owners use chargers far less than gas cars use gas stations, because we all have a gas station in our garage and leave home with a full charge whenever we want.

Other problems are those stations cost far more than a DC fast charger (or the same as many DC chargers), and you’re swapping out the most valuable single part of the car, which has wear, so this is economically more complicated. It also creates a design constraint. Given all cars use significantly different battery design, there would be no way to standardize this, so you’d need car swap stations for each type of battery pack. It was hard enough to standardize on a simple connector.

I drove my Model 3 from Denver to Omaha. We stopped to charge where the most convenient charger was (there were a few on the way), ate lunch, and were on our way. We have a gas car and didnt consider which to take in terms of electric vs gas, it was just which car do we want to take in general.

Battery swap is in practice an expensive solution looking for a problem, for the most part. I’m sure there are some niche cases it makes sense but for most people most of the time it is not useful. The practical considerations likely make it untenable as well.

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#### gtae07

##### Well-Known Member
I predict a lull in electric car sales fairly soon .

Electrics have been around just about long enough to require new batteries .... impossible to replace in some and expensive in others.

Most people are fairly cautious when choosing a car ... they want to hear good stuff ... bad news travels quickly and electrics are about to get some .

The big looming problem with old EVs: It’s really, really hard to change the battery (msn.com)
They picked a particularly bad example with the Leaf, which for the first several years had (a) limited capacity, and (b) a tendency to degrade significantly mostly because Nissan didn't bother putting in much of a system to actively manage battery health.

Now that EVs are starting to cross into the "practical" range for a lot more people, and we're moving to substantial battery packs over the puny things on hybrids, manufacturers are looking a lot more at technologies to actively keep the battery happy and extend the life. Many EVs will now get the battery "warmed up" and prepared before you head out for the day or connect to a rapid charger (Teslas will even start doing this on your way to the supercharger, not sure about others), and a great deal of effort is being put into proper battery cooling as well. I expect that the vast majority of EVs coming off the line today will still be quite usable in 10 years and they won't just brick themselves on day 3653. Yes, there will be some range degredation but I think the older cars will find plenty of use in less-demanding roles. Perhaps by owner #3 they may be down to 150 miles usable range... but that's plenty for a high school kid or a family's second car.

I'm also wondering where they got the $113k price for a Model 3--full disclosure time, I'm seriously looking at buying one in the next 6-10 months (been doing a lot of research and spreadsheet calcs) and they run$40-55k or so depending on which sub-model you get, not over a hundred grand. Still sounds expensive to me but that's what a lot of new vehicles run for these days. Thanks, inflation. I think the \$100k plus price in that article may be for the Model S Plaid (Tesla's top-line option, purportedly the "fastest production car available", and for those wondering "plaid" is a Spaceballs reference). Assuming my wife doesn't wreck the car like she did the last new one we got, I intend to drive it into the ground and pass it off to my son in 11 years.

I'm not worried about "sitting for hours to charge". At home that may happen but I won't care because I'm sleeping as it charges overnight, and I'll no longer have to stop for gas on a normal day. On road trips the charging stops take minutes, not hours, and even though they'd be more frequent than gas stops, my family apparently has the combined bladder capacity of about a teacup. We would be stopping anyway. If you're curious, there are websites out there that help you optimize charging stops and see what your travel times would probably be for various EV models; A Better Routeplanner for example lets you choose a vehicle, charge state, figure of merit (time vs. stops vs. leg distance) and so on. For us, a standard-range Model 3 adds two stops totaling about 40 min of charging time above the theoretical no-stops time for our most common Savannah-to-Atlanta suburbs trip (3:30 to 4:10), and I can cut that charging and trip time down if I'm willing to get closer to "empty" before stopping. But in reality we rarely make that trip in under 3:50 or so due to bathroom stops and meals (which usually happen at the same exits as Tesla's Superchargers).

Battery swapping was also a dead idea because people didn't like the idea of swapping out "their" new good-condition battery for some other one of unknown lineage. It's like people who buy gas tanks (e.g. CO2 tanks for beer kegs) not wanting to exchange their brand-new clean shiny bottle for some rusted one--as I did not want to do when I was kegging homebrews years ago. Battery swapping is an option that would work for an industrial setting (or perhaps even a flight school with electric trainers) where you own all the vehicles and the batteries, and perhaps if you had a shared-ownership rental model, but for individually-owned vehicles people aren't going to want to go exchange with five-digit battery packs.

Unfortunately, as with so many other things today, US public opinion on EVs seems to be all-or-nothing; either you're "ban ICE tomorrow" or "an EV isn't practical for every conceivable use therefore there's no point".

#### tspear

##### Well-Known Member
.

I am a retired auto tech and give this a lot of thought.

The most practical way to do it is have battery stations at the gas stations where your car battery could be popped out and a fully charged one installed in a few minutes.

I operated industrial electric forklifts for years and as soon as power was low we rolled one battery out of the machine and a fresh one in .... took about 3 minutes ... these were several thousand pound batteries.

To work in the car industry it would require standardization of battery sizes and connections .... small car would use a standardized battery .... larger cars same battery but two or three or 4 of them side by side etc.

Would require good planning , cars would have to be designed for quick battery changes , we standardized gasoline delivery worldwide so electrics could be too.

Much better to have a fresh battery available down the road than have to hope for a charger and then park for hours to get topped up.

Would also take pressure off the electrical grid ... the batteries could be charged at a lower rate and overnight etc.

Drive car into an open ended building .... attendant in a pit removes floor pan and dead battery ... installs fresh one ... floor pan back on ... customer drives out the other end.

You could drive across the country worry free.

.
I have seen a pic of a quick charge station which had a flow battery next to it. Drew constant power and powered the quick charger.
Also, it is no longer hours, most EVs at a quick charge are there less than twenty minutes. Now this is normally about to 80% charge, but that is enough.

Tim

#### tspear

##### Well-Known Member
Believe it or not this has been tried before, the Tesla model S was designed with a swappable battery. There are many reasons it doesn’t make sense, and to start with EV owners use chargers far less than gas cars use gas stations, because we all have a gas station in our garage and leave home with a full charge whenever we want.

Other problems are those stations cost far more than a DC fast charger (or the same as many DC chargers), and you’re swapping out the most valuable single part of the car, which has wear, so this is economically more complicated. It also creates a design constraint. Given all cars use significantly different battery design, there would be no way to standardize this, so you’d need car swap stations for each type of battery pack. It was hard enough to standardize on a simple connector.

I drove my Model 3 from Denver to Omaha. We stopped to charge where the most convenient charger was (there were a few on the way), ate lunch, and were on our way. We have a gas car and didnt consider which to take in terms of electric vs gas, it was just which car do we want to take in general.

Battery swap is in practice an expensive solution looking for a problem, for the most part. I’m sure there are some niche cases it makes sense but for most people most of the time it is not useful. The practical considerations likely make it untenable as well.
Also battery tech is changing pretty fast. The Nissan Leaf has been in production for almost a decade, and is now on the fifth generation of battery with each one having an increase in capacity, and the third generation of chargers in the car.

Tim

#### tspear

##### Well-Known Member
Unfortunately, as with so many other things today, US public opinion on EVs seems to be all-or-nothing; either you're "ban ICE tomorrow" or "an EV isn't practical for every conceivable use therefore there's no point".
Actually I think there a small but growing group of us who are in the we will likely go EV for the next car but it does not make financial sense yet to replace what I have. Combined with a second group I am reading about in the midwest that is more interested in going pure biofuls (ethanol mostly). Will make the next decade or two interesting.

Tim

#### TFF

##### Well-Known Member
Clearly the swapping batteries capabilities that Tesla was for government grants to keep the business a float. Good at applying for grants for just about any free money.
Also with this new technology, there is plenty of lobbying that the auto makers are doing to prevent any one other than them to do maintenance. They want to hold the keys. Plenty of YouTube videos of packs being fixed on technical totals because of battery cost. There is a slow aftermarket coming around to try and address it. But what the auto makers want is for it to be like medical equipment. X-Ray machine was the first big purchase a doc would make. In 20 years, after it was payed off he was making money on it. Today you can’t own a new one. Or MRI or Lasix. Count the uses and you are billed for them by the equipment companies. That is what auto makers want. Lease only. That way no one can Hi Jack technology. Electric airplanes will be easier to lock down.
EVs make sense it in town and for old people. We don’t have the infrastructure for it really to go all the way without a big tax to get everything up to speed. Be prepared for that to catch up with your pocket. Right now EV is like the early internet where they could not figure out how to monetize it. It will catch up with EV sooner than later. Old people who go to church on Sunday and drive to the grocery and bridge game once a week, it’s perfect as long as they don’t forget to plug it in. They don’t want to gas up. They don’t go far. Old people s not a specific age, it’s when you get to that point.

#### Hot Wings

##### Grumpy Cynic
HBA Supporter
Log Member
Someone needs to start a thread discussing the alternatives, both existing and near term, for replacing 100LL with a liquid fuel that is practical and cost effective for the average general aviation owner.

Leaving for work now, wishing I had an electric motorcycle with a side car for the trip..............