# UN hails end of poisonous leaded gas use in cars worldwide

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#### Pops

##### Well-Known Member
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It will take at least 30 years to build the generating capacity for 100% EV if we started now with today's use of the automobile. So without the generating capacity, the travel with EV will be rationed or a total ration of all electric usage. Those smart meters will be used.

#### Vigilant1

##### Well-Known Member
Gas offers far more utility.
Tomorrow morning, my wife and I will load up our 10 year old Honda CR-V with lots of stuff and drive 777 miles to our home. It won't be fun, but we'll get there in 13 hours. We will burn about 95 dollars in fuel. I won't have to find special Supercharger sites for a "fast" 30 minute fill up, won't have to hope they have slots available, we can vary our route if needed to avoid traffic, we could make the same trip with the same range in freezing temperatures or blazing heat while enjoying comfortable temps in the car. There's no electric car in the world that could make this trip today.

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#### Topaz

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So we've established what everyone thinks about electric cars. Have we exhausted the topic of electric airplanes? Has this thread run its course?

#### akwrencher

##### Well-Known Member
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Yep, that's the part that often gets forgotten. We need to roughly double our electrical generation capacity to transition to 100% EV's, and that also includes upgrading the electrical grid to handle that extra capacity.

Sorry Topaz, cross posting. But, airplanes are a type of EV

#### JMyers1

##### Well-Known Member
As I mentioned, I think my stepdaughter (she's 24) will live to see that day, when EV's constitute more than 50% of the cars on the highway. I don't think I will. I'm 56.

33% of new sales by 2030? We're at 2% right now. That's a really big change in consumer behavior in 18 years. Perhaps it'll happen, but we're not talking smartphone prices here. There are literally millions of ICE cars on the road, most of them less than 10 years old at this point, and it's going to take a long time for that "tail" of ICE cars to go away, replaced by EV's. Only a very small percentage (single-digit, no doubt) of all the cars currently on the road are replaced every year.

The optimism about rapid adoption of EV's is just that - optimism. Even with many manufacturers going all-EV "soon" (and I suspect most of them will find reasons to stretch out their timeframe as their deadlines approach), it will take a very long time to replace all those ICE vehicles currently on the road, and still being sold for the next few years.
It’s not consumer behavior it’s the availability of the product. Most cars in the showroom floor will be electric, that is a dramatic change from today and already announced. Almost no automakers are developing new IC engines.

The 33% is new car sales, it’ll take much longer for a third of all cars to get there. I’m not sure how far it lags but I’d imagine many years.

#### tspear

##### Well-Known Member
As I mentioned, I think my stepdaughter (she's 24) will live to see that day, when EV's constitute more than 50% of the cars on the highway. I don't think I will. I'm 56.

33% of new sales by 2030? We're at 2% right now. That's a really big change in consumer behavior in 18 years. Perhaps it'll happen, but we're not talking smartphone prices here. There are literally millions of ICE cars on the road, most of them less than 10 years old at this point, and it's going to take a long time for that "tail" of ICE cars to go away, replaced by EV's. Only a very small percentage (single-digit, no doubt) of all the cars currently on the road are replaced every year.

The optimism about rapid adoption of EV's is just that - optimism. Even with many manufacturers going all-EV "soon" (and I suspect most of them will find reasons to stretch out their timeframe as their deadlines approach), it will take a very long time to replace all those ICE behavior,ehicles currently on the road, and still being sold for the next few years.
Topaz you are mixing new car sales with cars on the road. I have not seen any predictions on the timeline for when gas vehicles will not be on the road anymore, except an old scifi movie from 80s.
With pretty much anything new, consumers have a tendency to have some level of Fear Uncertainty and Doubt (FUD). By far the largest impediment is a lack of a "trusted" advisor. EVs have been around 2% of sales for a number of years now, to the point that very likely a majority of the country now knows someone who has one. This is the early adopter crowd, they effectively become the trusted advisor to address issues like range anxiety.

The next barrier is cost, humans have a wonderful way of rationalizing the costs and issues they already deal with, and magnifying the ones they do not. The best example is range anxiety; a fried on mine is the perfect example. She commutes about 20 miles a day in a Civic; and says she will never buy an EV that can go less 1000 miles with A/C running and a single ten minute stop. Her reason, she wants to drive to her parents in FL, and normally does a single ten minute stop for gas (her claim). I ask how many times has she done this in her Civic with all three kids, never she rents a Suburban from a local car service that has extended range tanks installed. lmao. This kind of thinking is rather typical.

The point is, money talks and so does fear. Fear is by far the greater of the two, and it will quickly dissipate. The money is the larger issue. If you compare a Chevy Bolt and Chevy Cruse both about the same size, both with similar features/trim levels, both great commuter cars. There is an initial price difference of 13K without any tax incentives right now. Five years ago, the price delta comparing an EV to an ICE was over 30K. And for an average driver, they spend over $3K a year in ICE specific maintenance based on many reports. This means that over five years, EV to ICE is betting very close in total cost. Longer than 5 years, EV wins in almost all cases. The battery is driving the price more than anything for an EV, and look at how the price per kwh keeps going down. Depending on the vehicle and pundit, EV battery costs will actually dip below the cost of labor on a vehicle somewhere between 2025 and 2030. ANd EVs take aproximately 30% less labor to make than an ICE vehcile (fewer parts, battery packs tend to be largely built by robot since much simpler). What the automakers and pundits are counting on is consumer on is consumer behavior, and that EVs up front costs will be within 5K by 2025, and lower by 2030, will cause many people to switch. I have done the math already, and know my next vehicle will be an EV. Now because we drive so little, it will be a number of years away. But at this point, I do not see my ever buying a new ICE vehicle again. Tim #### tspear ##### Well-Known Member . I predict a lull in electric car sales fairly soon . Electrics have been around just about long enough to require new batteries .... impossible to replace in some and expensive in others. Most people are fairly cautious when choosing a car ... they want to hear good stuff ... bad news travels quickly and electrics are about to get some . The big looming problem with old EVs: It’s really, really hard to change the battery (msn.com) . Yeah, that is a nothing burger. EV battery costs were a problem from day one, and actively talked about by anyone buying an EV. Maybe if you bury you head in the sand it might be a surprise. But otherwise, no. Before I bought my daughter a 2013 Nissan Leaf a few weeks ago, I did scope out the battery situation. And yes, it is expensive, but it can be done. Tim #### tspear ##### Well-Known Member It will take at least 30 years to build the generating capacity for 100% EV if we started now with today's use of the automobile. So without the generating capacity, the travel with EV will be rationed or a total ration of all electric usage. Those smart meters will be used. Not at all. EVs can almost all charge at night, and it is actually better for the battery anyways. Our day time power consumption is significantly more than twice our night power consumption, even in hot places like FL or TX where the A/C runs all night most of the year. Tim #### aeromomentum ##### Well-Known Member My Dad's Tesla has been in the shop once (to fix a squeak) in the 3 years that he has owned it. His previous Lexus was in the shop 2 times a year for oil change, filters, etc and always seemed to have an$800+ invoice for the work.
My RAM 1500 EcoDiesel has been in the shop over 10 times in the first 3 years and even today it is waiting on a part for an emissions recall.

I make engines for a living but if I can not wait until I get an electric pickup. Too bad the Tesla cyber pickup is so ugly.

But to bring this back to aircraft for a moment, the power density of batteries is still too low for the practical replacement of the IC in GA aircraft. At the current rate of improvement in power density it will be over 20 years and even then retro fitting in certified GA aircraft will not be practical for maybe another 20 years. So we really need a viable replacement for 100LL.

I assume everyone has seen this:

“To date, EPA has failed to regulate this significant source of lead exposures, even though emissions from these aircraft collectively represent the single largest source of air emissions of lead in the United States, accounting for 70 percent of lead released domestically into the environment.”

If we (the GA industry) does not get rid of lead very soon we are all screwed.

#### Pops

##### Well-Known Member
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Not at all. EVs can almost all charge at night, and it is actually better for the battery anyways. Our day time power consumption is significantly more than twice our night power consumption, even in hot places like FL or TX where the A/C runs all night most of the year.

Tim
Even charging the EV's at night, without a huge increase in electric production the power will have to be rationed unless a huge increase in building increased capacity starting NOW.
But, that increase is not planed for a reason. UN's Agenda 30 is that reason. Better not say anymore. Finished.

#### tspear

##### Well-Known Member
Even charging the EV's at night, without a huge increase in electric production the power will have to be rationed unless a huge increase in building increased capacity starting NOW.
But, that increase is not planed for a reason. UN's Agenda 30 is that reason. Better not say anymore. Finished.
Stick to the math, not the politics. What new capacity is needed at night? When doing the math, look at miles driven daily, and how much energy those EVs consume doing the miles, do NOT look at the BBL consumed in transportation. Looking at oil consumed will give you an invalid answer.

Tim

#### Hephaestus

##### Well-Known Member
Yeah the UN announcement definitely made the fringes perk up and realize they can attack.

My next vehicle will be an PHEV, those HOV lanes are always ok for electrics even if you don't have passengers, just need a sticker! That way I can bypass traffic like the rest of these tesla owners (I'm leaning to an older prius hybrid)

#### tspear

##### Well-Known Member
My parents have been buying only Subaru Outbacks for almost 25 years. They buy a new one every five years, and sell the other at ten years (they maintain two cars); and put about 30K miles a year total on the cars.
My dad has a reservation on the Ford Lighting. He is really looking forward to it; and has already started some prep work to insall the charger; and even have the charger hooked up to his emergency generator.

Tim

#### Pops

##### Well-Known Member
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Stick to the math, not the politics. What new capacity is needed at night? When doing the math, look at miles driven daily, and how much energy those EVs consume doing the miles, do NOT look at the BBL consumed in transportation. Looking at oil consumed will give you an invalid answer.

Tim
That is why I believe what I believe. And politics run the world in spite of the math.

#### trimtab

##### Well-Known Member
The battery supply issue is very real. At present, the production is resource limited. It's not fabrication limited. That limit shows no signs of changing radically in the next several years. The possible growth, limited by present resource availability, cannot meet more than a small growth increment each year at present. The issue needs a magic wand to fix, and that's before examining the far more pressing EROEI issues that have not only failed to budge but gotten worse in recent years. The economic thresholds for EROEI on batteries as a whole are easily 2-3 times what they presently offer. The reality of the battery trap ensures an economic reversal.

Not that there is any real choice at the moment.

The electrical distribution issue is very real. Even a single short commute is equivalent in grid energy use to an entire day of household energy use for a large part of the western world. Doubling actual electrical production and distribution to support that need is another EROEI hit of course, and in question as to whether even it could grow more than modestly every year compared to what it needs to grow to supplant ICE's.

Aircraft applications will be competing for the same resources with a different set of needs...a conflict that won't likely be won in any great favor by aviation. And if the mere struggle to get rid of lead causes gnashing of teeth and wails, it's unlikely that more substantive change is going to be any more successful.

#### trimtab

##### Well-Known Member
If charging happens at night, during the lowest renewable energy production, then the energy must be supplied with more fossil fuel or nuclear energy.

Or perhaps the paradigm for permanent batteries needs to be changed to ones that are swapped every day for batteries that were charged during the previous day.

#### akwrencher

##### Well-Known Member
HBA Supporter
[/QUOTE]
Or perhaps the paradigm for permanent batteries needs to be changed to ones that are swapped every day for batteries that were charged during the previous day.
[/QUOTE]

Tesla bat weighs 1000 plus pounds. And most ev bats are extremely integrated to save volume use in the vehicle. May be a while for swappables.

#### tspear

##### Well-Known Member
@trimtab

Show some numbers and sources please. The stuff I have been keeping track of, shows that each generation of batteries using Lithium and Cobalt have reduced the raw material requirements. As a result, demand has been fairly flat even though number of batteries produced has dramatically increased.

At the same time, I think some new battery tech will replace Li fairly soon; and some old school solutions will replace Li in ground situations (such as in buildings as local backup).

Tim

#### tspear

##### Well-Known Member
Tesla bat weighs 1000 plus pounds. And most ev bats are extremely integrated to save volume use in the vehicle. May be a while for swappables.
Tesla had swap able, and ended the program when uptake was very low. Especially with the focus on how good fast charges have become.

Tim