# The GA Market

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#### Hephaestus

##### Well-Known Member
Must be renting something expensive like a Cessna 400/ttX. Getting hosed otherwise.
Diamond whatever's and Cessna 172.

The offshore students have made the rates soar of late.

#### 12notes

##### Well-Known Member
Log Member
Median salary in 1968 was $7,700, median salary in 2018 was$46,800, a factor of 6.08.
Median house price in 1968 was $24,700, median in 2019 was$204,300, a factor of 8.27.
Minimum wage in 1968 was $1.60 per hour, minimum wage in 2019 is$11.10, a factor of 6.94.
Gasoline cost $0.34/ gallon in 1968, current average is$2.64, a factor of 7.79.
Difficult to find numbers on Avgas, and there were 3 grades back then and only one now.
Inflation 1968 to 2019 is a factor of 7.37.

Median rent in 1970 was $108, median rent in 2018 was$1,405, a factor of 13.01.
In 1970 median rent was 17% of median salary, in 2018, median rent was 36% of median salary. This makes it harder to get started out in life for young people, and that doesn't factor in the huge increase in tuition for those that go to college, and loan repayments for those that get them.

##### Well-Known Member
Log Member
bmcj.......yeah I know,I tend to be outspoken and think a little differently than most.......its a blessing and / or curse.
So I will say You're Welcome or I'm Sorry...whichever applies this time....lol

I just think the current system is broken and those in charge of making the decisions are dead set not to fix it,for whatever reason.
Aviation should be fun,serve a purpose to society,be accessible by anyone interested.....etc.
But it seems that the FAA does their best to discourage individuals from getting into aviation and I will give an example.

Ultralights are unregulated as long as they abide by FAR103.....dont do stupid stuff and you will never hear from the FAA.
Everything was going great.......there were instructors available,people were having fun,planes were being bought & built and you almost never heard of an ultralight incident/accident....ever.
So why the change to throw a wrench in the works ????
Now,you can still build and fly an ultralight but you are very hard pressed to find anyone that can give you the instruction to learn to fly the plane and be safe doing so.
Why did the FAA make changes that pretty much ruined a recreatinal industry for everyone in the country ?

That's just one viewpoint.....I could be right or I could be wrong....could go either way really.

I will say this....I am grateful for aviation.
On the way home tonight I came upon a wreck a few miles from my house.
Never saw the actual wreck but there were "3" medivacs on the ground at the same time and then dusted off heading to Louisville.
I have NEVER seen more than 1 on the scene.....EVER....I was a Paramedic and worked many scenes.
Thanks go out to those men and women that have devoted their careers to save others.

Kevin

#### bmcj

##### Well-Known Member
HBA Supporter
bmcj.......yeah I know,I tend to be outspoken and think a little differently than most.......its a blessing and / or curse.
So I will say You're Welcome or I'm Sorry...whichever applies this time....lol
LOL, don’t sweat it... I did put a wink smilie at the end.

#### Pops

##### Well-Known Member
HBA Supporter
Log Member
Yes, the cost of employing a new graduate today is so expensive that the companies do everything that they can to ensure that the new hire meets their standards. The Facebook thing is a parenting issue.
Seems to me that it always has been that way. Today, though, thanks to an apparent need by the young to document and share on the www every stupid thing that they do, it is harder for that stupid behavior to be forgotten and, therefore, easier to disqualify themselves.

Edit: I'm really glad that my youth was not documented on the www.
No, not by society; by their own decisions.

BJC
Lets face it, people that share every thing in their lives on Facebook is stupid is correct. We all did stupid things when we were young and didn't know better and I'm sure glad it wasn't common knowledge. Its a choice, be on Facebook, etc or not, controlled by the pop culture or not, etc. Today the youth are taught to conform so everyone is just a clone of everyone else from day one in the Gov schools. Not taught to question and and think for themselves. Not only not taught, but highly discouraged.
You are correct, the Facebook thing is a parenting issue.
We had 3 children born in 1961, 1962 and 1964. They went to a gov schools, but was home schooled every night for several hours. The teachers knew this, they would ask our children were they were at in different subjects in their home schooling. They grew up great and they also schooled their children the same way and we have 8 grandchildren and they all are great people and people to be proud of in every way.

#### Kyle Boatright

##### Well-Known Member
HBA Supporter
In 1970 median rent was 17% of median salary, in 2018, median rent was 36% of median salary. This makes it harder to get started out in life for young people, and that doesn't factor in the huge increase in tuition for those that go to college, and loan repayments for those that get them.
Lots of good information there and I don't quibble with a bit of it.

But I will suggest that the increase in rent, both in dollars and as a percentage of median income, is substantially driven by the improved accommodations the market demands today. "Then" it was much more likely to be bare bones than today, and more/better almost always costs more...

#### Pops

##### Well-Known Member
HBA Supporter
Log Member
I think is was a lot easier for me when I was first starting out in the world than for my Grand kids now.

#### Kyle Boatright

##### Well-Known Member
HBA Supporter
I think is was a lot easier for me when I was first starting out in the world than for my Grand kids now.
Simpler then, easier now. I'm guessing you occasionally worried about where the next meal or utility payment might come from. Your grandchildren (or at least their peers) worry about when to upgrade to the iPhone 14 and which streaming service to cancel...

#### Pops

##### Well-Known Member
HBA Supporter
Log Member
Simpler then, easier now. I'm guessing you occasionally worried about where the next meal or utility payment might come from. Your grandchildren (or at least their peers) worry about when to upgrade to the iPhone 14 and which streaming service to cancel...
No, if the grandchildren worry about when to upgrade to the iPhone 14 then someone else is still taking care of them.
I have been on my own since I was 17 years old and finding a job where I had enough money for the necessities like food, rent and utility bills was easy to get compared to today. I was expected to leave home the day I finished High School and I did.
There again, I live in one of the poorest county in one of the poorest states, in a flyover state of flyover states. Lots of people in this area are living with no electric and no plumbing. Forgotten people.

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#### Hephaestus

##### Well-Known Member
We saw it at work.

#### aeromomentum

##### Well-Known Member
Two things: I think your 1968(?) AA1 would now be north of $100K new. Gasoline costs ten times what it did in 1973 when I was learning to fly. A 172 costs 20 times as much as then. Houses cost 20 times as much as then. The minimum wage is ten times as high as it was then. A PPL costs a lot more than ten times what it did then, though it's now 45 hours instead of 35. The 172's rise is inflation PLUS all the fancy gadgetry PLUS the liability insurance Cessna has to fund for the 18-year liability frame for that airplane, which comes to around a third of the purchase price. Engine makers are faced with the same nonsense. Anybody that makes anything in that airplane... And an$100K AA1 would be a pipe dream. The FAA has constantly beefed up the standards over the years, making construction more expensive and the airplane heavier, requiring more power. A classic example are the FAR23 occupant seat standards that now require 23G seats in the front and 19 G seats elsewhere. A 172's seats now weigh three or four times what they did in 1973. Other places on the airframe were beefed up to eliminate the problem spots. The G1000 stuff adds up to more weight than the steam gauges did. So now it needs 180 HP to pull it around, which burns more gas, which requires more fuel capacity, which requires a 250-lb higher gross weight, and the airplane still has a useful load 50 pounds less than it did in '73.

Canadians and Americans nearly priced themselves out of the manufacturing sector in the '80s. Union demands for massive pay and benefits drove manufacturers offshore and toward automation. Stuff still made in the US and cnada has a hard time competing with imported items, and that includes airplanes. Automating the construction of an airplane that sells 100 units a year isn't feasible.
Yes a $50K or$100K AA1 is currently a pipe dream. BUT it should not be if you look at inflation, wages, technology, etc.

Don't blame "Unions" and labor. Actually wages have not kept pace with inflation. productivity has increased and there is less union membership now. So if we base it on wages then GA aircraft should be less expensive today. Automation today is actually less expensive and more applicable to 100 units a year. We do many CNC parts in about that quantity and it is much more applicable and affordable than casting and other methods more used 40-50 years ago.

It is my understanding that Piper no longer has product liability insurance.

Yes flashy glass cockpits are expensive but not if they are kept more simple. Just plain old radios are actually much less expensive, do more and work better. Even a transponder with ADSb out is a lot less expensive than a mode c transponder 40 years ago.

So the real question is with inflation about 7 times since 1969 why have aircraft gone up 20++ times? We know it is not labor. We know it is not automation costs. At least for Piper it is not insurance costs. We know it is not certification costs for aircraft that have been certified for many years. We know it is not radios. So what is it?

#### Vigilant1

##### Well-Known Member
One factor: tort costs don't go away if a business drops insurance against them. Claims need to be paid, and investors/banks will demand more interest for capital if a company is "going bare."

The number of cheap old planes pretty much takes the profit out of building more certified acft at the low end. So, they build a fewer number for folks who are willing to pay a lot for a new plane. That market is small, and we see the result.

#### jedi

##### Well-Known Member
.......

So the real question is with inflation about 7 times since 1969 why have aircraft gone up 20++ times? We know it is not labor. We know it is not automation costs. At least for Piper it is not insurance costs. We know it is not certification costs for aircraft that have been certified for many years. We know it is not radios. So what is it?
Government regulations. They have increased 200 fold! Not just the FAA. Do manufacturers paint those newer airplanes. Bring in the EPA, OSHA, city government, etc. Just one example.

When I started flying in 1960 the entire list of FAA publications for study was one book with about 70 pages. It replaced the former CAA three publications Path of Flight, Realm of Flight and the most basic one I do not recall the title of. Each were about 20 pages with nice colored illustrations. I wish I still had them. I did see one in a museum once.

BJC

#### Hephaestus

##### Well-Known Member
Yah, it was a struggle - getting one of those jobs. If you didn't have the right connections you had to go home every day at 5 too.
What an inefficient use of time.
Lol, getting the job isn't hard. Swear to God at times it's breathing and heartbeat? Check! Pee test! Passed? Here's a bus ticket!

Our site... 83% of new hires didn't make it 3 months. First winter claims all but 1-2 of the remainder. (-50 sucks no matter what scale you're using).

#### Hephaestus

##### Well-Known Member
It is my understanding that Piper no longer has product liability insurance.
?
https://app.ntsb.gov/pdfgenerator/ReportGeneratorFile.ashx?EventID=20180404X13226&AKey=1&RType=Final&IType=FA

Embry riddle crash.
The National Transportation Safety Board determines the probable cause(s) of this accident to be:
Extensive fatigue cracking in the left-wing main spar lower cap and doublers, which resulted in the in-flight separation of the left wing. The fatigue cracks initiated and grew to a critical size due to flight and ground loads associated with flight-training involving flight-training maneuvers, significant operation at low altitudes and frequent landing cycles. Previously established inspection criteria were insufficient to detect the fatigue crack before it grew to a critical size.
How many pa28/32's are out there now?

#### BBerson

##### Light Plane Philosopher
HBA Supporter
The Vashon Ranger and Van's RV-12 are about \$100k ready to fly.

#### Himat

##### Well-Known Member
I'm going to guess they're missing out on volume and subsidies.

How many VW Golfs are made per year?
Then a Caterham Super 7 should have followed the C172 in price. It has not, it looks like the price of a Caterham Super 7 follow the VW Golf and other cars. Some hundreds Caterham cars are made annually, high volume is obvious not required to keep costs down.

#### Dan Thomas

##### Well-Known Member
So the real question is with inflation about 7 times since 1969 why have aircraft gone up 20++ times? We know it is not labor. We know it is not automation costs. At least for Piper it is not insurance costs. We know it is not certification costs for aircraft that have been certified for many years. We know it is not radios. So what is it?
Cessna stopped building their piston singles in 1986 due to lawsuits against them for accidents in airplanes that had left the factory 40 years before. Even if they won the court case they still had the legal costs. They had to, and still have to, retain legal counsel. What's the root of that? Society's tendency to teach kids so much self-esteem that an accident must be someone else's fault. And greed. And the perceived deep pockets of the industry. A lot of workers were laid off when they stopped production.