The Annual Registration Summary

Discussion in 'Hangar Flying' started by Wanttaja, Jan 1, 2019.

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  1. Jan 1, 2019 #1

    Wanttaja

    Wanttaja

    Wanttaja

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    Every year, I give myself a New Year's present and download the FAA registration database. The following is a summary of homebuilt aircraft fleet sizes, based on the results from the last ten years of downloads.

    Note that the overall homebuilt fleet decreased by almost 2,000 airplanes last year, so most of these types took their share of the hit.

    This data includes only aircraft listed in the FAA registry as Experimental Amateur-Built. It includes (of course) only US-registered aircraft, and does not include:
    - Aircraft with homebuilt-like names that are registered in some other category or do not list a certification category in their listing
    - Aircraft that have been removed from the FAA registry, either by not renewing their registration at the scheduled time or having been manually removed by the owner or insurance company.
    - Kits that have been built and registered in other countries, or completed aircraft that have been exported to other countries.

    Type
    2009​
    2010​
    2011​
    2012​
    2013​
    2014​
    2015​
    2016​
    2017​
    2018​
    Air Command
    56​
    56​
    56​
    54​
    36​
    35​
    31​
    31​
    25​
    19​
    Aventura
    78​
    81​
    79​
    77​
    71​
    68​
    63​
    65​
    57​
    50​
    Avid
    477​
    477​
    474​
    453​
    359​
    359​
    343​
    352​
    342​
    296​
    Baby/Junior Ace
    278​
    281​
    279​
    275​
    230​
    228​
    228​
    230​
    225​
    204​
    Bede BD-4
    155​
    153​
    151​
    134​
    98​
    91​
    93​
    92​
    90​
    78​
    Bede BD-5
    77​
    77​
    78​
    70​
    49​
    43​
    40​
    41​
    38​
    34​
    Benson Gyro
    720​
    717​
    689​
    518​
    271​
    218​
    200​
    198​
    158​
    105​
    Bowers Fly Baby
    269​
    272​
    270​
    244​
    183​
    168​
    167​
    167​
    160​
    160​
    Challenger
    628​
    659​
    670​
    657​
    584​
    594​
    586​
    593​
    578​
    491​
    Christen Eagle
    245​
    240​
    238​
    238​
    214​
    207​
    206​
    205​
    204​
    194​
    Glasair
    647​
    651​
    650​
    651​
    601​
    606​
    596​
    603​
    599​
    571​
    GlaStar/Sportsman
    333​
    346​
    355​
    358​
    374​
    386​
    396​
    407​
    424​
    410​
    Harmon Rocket
    78​
    79​
    83​
    84​
    88​
    85​
    87​
    85​
    85​
    80​
    Hatz
    104​
    106​
    106​
    109​
    105​
    107​
    110​
    111​
    110​
    112​
    Kitfox
    994​
    1009​
    1024​
    1027​
    905​
    918​
    936​
    950​
    946​
    875​
    Kolb (Ex-AB)
    298​
    304​
    301​
    296​
    248​
    241​
    236​
    235​
    227​
    205​
    Lancair (All Models)
    785​
    814​
    830​
    850​
    835​
    847​
    855​
    875​
    866​
    824​
    Lancair IV
    236​
    245​
    245​
    246​
    246​
    244​
    259​
    260​
    249​
    236​
    Midget Mustang
    295​
    301​
    294​
    282​
    241​
    240​
    236​
    238​
    233​
    207​
    Murphy
    183​
    186​
    187​
    182​
    173​
    171​
    171​
    176​
    174​
    156​
    Pietenpol
    358​
    362​
    363​
    351​
    307​
    313​
    311​
    321​
    319​
    296​
    Pitts (EX-AB)
    813​
    806​
    800​
    743​
    639​
    613​
    617​
    625​
    608​
    548​
    Pulsar/KIS
    153​
    155​
    153​
    150​
    130​
    126​
    124​
    125​
    122​
    107​
    Quickie/Q2/Q200
    305​
    303​
    297​
    277​
    168​
    148​
    140​
    143​
    130​
    109​
    Quicksilver EX-AB
    345​
    348​
    335​
    296​
    170​
    163​
    156​
    162​
    154​
    134​
    RAF-2000 Gyro
    123​
    123​
    126​
    124​
    113​
    114​
    110​
    111​
    90​
    69​
    Rand KR-2
    349​
    350​
    346​
    314​
    194​
    175​
    167​
    167​
    154​
    132​
    RANS
    625​
    656​
    682​
    684​
    627​
    638​
    659​
    677​
    673​
    636​
    Rotorway
    489​
    502​
    500​
    495​
    404​
    392​
    374​
    380​
    350​
    296​
    Rutan Long-EZ
    492​
    495​
    491​
    482​
    428​
    418​
    416​
    417​
    406​
    379​
    Rutan Varieze
    476​
    473​
    467​
    423​
    323​
    297​
    286​
    286​
    272​
    243​
    SeaRey
    213​
    219​
    229​
    237​
    231​
    242​
    242​
    249​
    255​
    241​
    Sonerai
    309​
    309​
    307​
    287​
    215​
    199​
    194​
    194​
    184​
    156​
    Sonex
    232​
    265​
    310​
    346​
    383​
    420​
    451​
    484​
    497​
    486​
    Steen Skybolt
    305​
    301​
    292​
    284​
    250​
    246​
    247​
    248​
    235​
    215​
    Stolp
    505​
    509​
    495​
    458​
    404​
    396​
    399​
    402​
    385​
    358​
    Stolp Starduster
    441​
    446​
    435​
    404​
    357​
    349​
    351​
    352​
    337​
    310​
    Thorp T-18
    313​
    311​
    305​
    290​
    261​
    259​
    259​
    262​
    257​
    239​
    Vans RV-3
    183​
    183​
    179​
    172​
    155​
    154​
    158​
    160​
    152​
    149​
    Vans RV-4
    965​
    976​
    982​
    987​
    952​
    956​
    955​
    965​
    958​
    921​
    Vans RV-6
    1739​
    1767​
    1781​
    1786​
    1763​
    1783​
    1775​
    1795​
    1796​
    1731​
    Vans RV-7
    700​
    788​
    874​
    946​
    1000​
    1066​
    1118​
    1170​
    1220​
    1244​
    Vans RV-8
    840​
    913​
    959​
    1012​
    1038​
    1082​
    1123​
    1161​
    1198​
    1215​
    Vans RV-9
    371​
    419​
    452​
    484​
    522​
    552​
    588​
    611​
    630​
    638​
    Vans RV-10
    177​
    221​
    253​
    281​
    304​
    340​
    366​
    394​
    419​
    434​
    Vans RV-12 (EX-AB)
    0​
    8​
    19​
    28​
    36​
    49​
    53​
    63​
    68​
    74​
    Velocity
    234​
    236​
    237​
    245​
    232​
    237​
    235​
    240​
    236​
    222​
    Volksplane
    222​
    222​
    220​
    176​
    104​
    95​
    85​
    86​
    76​
    48​
    Zenair EX-AB
    649​
    726​
    789​
    841​
    862​
    920​
    965​
    1013​
    1028​
    992​
    Ron Wanttaja
     
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  2. Jan 2, 2019 #2

    BBerson

    BBerson

    BBerson

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    Do you have the total for all EA-B each year? It doesn't look good for anything other than the top marketed kits.
     
  3. Jan 2, 2019 #3

    Wanttaja

    Wanttaja

    Wanttaja

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    There are 49 aircraft listed, they total about 2/3rds of the full homebuilt fleet. It's simple enough to add other types to the list, but the filters have to be separately run against each year's registration list. The filters have to be generated and polished manually, so I don't tend to add more aircraft to the list very often.

    2018 saw another big decrease in the US registry. About a quarter of the US registry has been removed in the past ten years. Here's an overall look:

    Year
    All Aircraft​
    All A/C Net​
    All A/C New​
    EAB​
    EAB Net​
    EAB New​
    2009
    374373​
    -1751​
    5267​
    31914​
    672​
    1136​
    2010
    373896​
    -477​
    4945​
    32682​
    768​
    1077​
    2011
    367857​
    -6039​
    5185​
    33038​
    356​
    1022​
    2012
    352198​
    -15659​
    5326​
    32041​
    -997​
    954​
    2013
    317993​
    -34205​
    5983​
    27946​
    -4095​
    918​
    2014
    312586​
    -5407​
    7181​
    27909​
    -37​
    1047​
    2015
    314404​
    1818​
    10058​
    28078​
    169​
    950​
    2016
    320683​
    6279​
    10533​
    28830​
    752​
    977​
    2017
    312344​
    -8339​
    6622​
    28451​
    -379​
    917​
    2018
    294221​
    -18123​
    6857​
    26572​
    -1879​
    888​
    "All" is the total number of registrations
    "Net" is the change in the number of registrations vs. the previous year
    "New" is the total number of new aircraft registrations. This is based on the "Net" value, corrected by the number of aircraft that had been de-registered that year.

    Ron Wanttaja
     
  4. Jan 2, 2019 #4

    mcrae0104

    mcrae0104

    mcrae0104

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    It would be interesting to run an analysis of the factors that influence the rise, staying power, and decline of these types.

    It is interesting, for instance, that Sonex stands out for rate of growth (along with the RV-10 & -12, although that's to be expected as they were new or nearly-new over this sample period), but have we seen "peak Sonex"? The staying power of the Hatz and SeaRey are also notable among older designs.
     
  5. Jan 2, 2019 #5

    BBerson

    BBerson

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    I think the "active" aircraft number is about half of the "registered" number. I have one inactive but still registered aircraft.
     
  6. Jan 2, 2019 #6

    Aerowerx

    Aerowerx

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    I see that Rans has remained pretty much constant, or increased.

    How do your numbers relate to the age of the aircraft?

    And what about the average age of homebuilt pilots? It could be the numbers have dropped because the owner/builder/pilots are getting older and no longer active.
     
  7. Jan 2, 2019 #7

    Wanttaja

    Wanttaja

    Wanttaja

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    Annual FAA surveys say about 58% of homebuilts are active. About the same as two-seat GA aircraft.

    Ron Wanttaja
     
  8. Jan 2, 2019 #8

    Wanttaja

    Wanttaja

    Wanttaja

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    That's the problem when I rely on memory.

    In the 2010 Survey, the FAA GA Survey said 59.6% of registered homebuilts were active, and 61.5% of all GA aircraft with three seats or less.

    In the 2016 Survey (the latest I could find), the active homebuilt percentage had risen to 66.7%, passing the 1-3 seat value at 63.5%

    Between those two surveys, about 30% of the homebuilt fleet was deregistered. Yet the percentage of active homebuilts rose by only seven percentage points.

    The GA survey folks do fine work, but their processes weren't designed to work in an environment when massive numbers of aircraft are being removed from the rolls.

    Ron Wanttaja
     
  9. Jan 2, 2019 #9

    pictsidhe

    pictsidhe

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    What happened in 2013? Some of the older designs took a particularly big hit there.
     
  10. Jan 2, 2019 #10

    Tiger Tim

    Tiger Tim

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    Amazing that the RV-7 fleet nearly doubled in that time. On the other hand, look what happened to the poor Volksplane.
     
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  11. Jan 2, 2019 #11

    Tiger Tim

    Tiger Tim

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    Was that the year that the FAA started cleaning up their records?
     
  12. Jan 2, 2019 #12

    Wanttaja

    Wanttaja

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    In 2010, the FAA started to require aircraft owners to renew their aircraft registrations every three years. If the registration was not renewed, the FAA would cancel it. 2013 was just past the end of the three-year cycle, and saw the biggest number of de-registrations. Over 40,000 airplanes were removed from the registry in 2013, including over 5,000 homebuilts. About a quarter of the registered homebuilts were gone by the end of the first three-year cycle.

    A lot of the older homebuilt designs took a big hit in this period. I don't think these represented actual completed airplanes; I suspect a lot of builders ordered their N-numbers at the time construction started and never bothered to cancel when the project was abandoned.

    The first time I looked at the FAA registry was in 1998. The most common homebuilt at that time was the Benson Gyrocopter, with over 1,000 examples. It's down to about 160, now. I've always suspected that the first line in the Benson construction manual was, "Obtain an N-Number from the FAA...."

    For some reason, 2018 was also a big year for the FAA deregistration process. We're in the middle of a second three-year cycle after the completion of the first process in 2013. If so, 2019 should be another massive hit.

    Ron Wanttaja
     
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  13. Jan 2, 2019 #13

    recmob

    recmob

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    Could be Ron, but considering how little assembly there is its quite conceivable one could have the entire thing ready before you got the paperwork back from the registry.
     
  14. Mar 29, 2019 #14

    Wanttaja

    Wanttaja

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    Re-Done table using Xenforo-compatible coding:
    [TABLE]Number of Registered Examples (includes only aircraft recorded as Experimental Amateur-Built)Type20082009201020112012201320142015201620172018Air Command5456565654363531312519Aventura7678817977716863655750Avid479477477474453359359343352342296Baby/Junior Ace281278281279275230228228230225204Bede BD-4158155153151134989193929078Bede BD-57877777870494340413834Benson Gyro750720717689518271218200198158105Bowers Fly Baby270269272270244183168167167160140Challenger593628659670657584594586593578491Christen Eagle245245240238238214207206205204194Cozy155159164165164158160164165163151Glasair631647651650651601606596603599571GlaStar/Sportsman271333346355358374386396407424410Harmon Rocket7778798384888587858580Hatz99104106106109105107110111110112Kitfox992994100910241027905918936950946875Kolb (Ex-AB)293298304301296248241236235227205Lancair (All Models)713785814830850835847855875866824Lancair IV218236245245246246244259260249236Midget Mustang193295301294282241240236238233207Murphy176183186187182173171171176174156Pietenpol346358362363351307313311321319296Pitts (EX-AB)823813806800743639613617625608548Pulsar/KIS148153155153150130126124125122107Quickie/Q2/Q200306305303297277168148140143130109Quicksilver EX-AB343345348335296170163156162154134RAF-2000 Gyro1211231231261241131141101119069Rand KR-2347349350346314194175167167154132RANS929625656682684627638659677673636RANS S-12164164165165161130129128128121107RANS S-6185195205216216200201208213211204RANS S-7139153167176178180189202206209202Rotorway483489502500495404392374380350296Rutan Long-EZ491492495491482428418416417406379Rutan Varieze480476473467423323297286286272243SeaRey197213219229237231242242249255241Sonerai315309309307287215199194194184156Sonex197232265310346383420451484497486Steen Skybolt305305301292284250246247248235215Stolp508505509495458404396399402385358Stolp Starduster442441446435404357349351352337310Thorp T-18312313311305290261259259262257239Vans46754956525454775674574559566110629364146447Vans RV-3184183183179172155154158160152149Vans RV-4968965976982987952956955965958921Vans RV-617071739176717811786176317831775179517961731Vans RV-7603700788874946100010661118117012201244Vans RV-87778409139591012103810821123116111981215Vans RV-9322371419452484522552588611630638Vans RV-10128177221253281304340366394419434Vans RV-12 (EX-AB)0081928364953636874Velocity230234236237245232237235240236222Volksplane2242222222201761049585867648Zenair49264972678984186292096510131028992Zenair CH-601262292311326344340348353367367339Zenair CH-701229249290309316323326341344340310Overall3124231914326823303832041279462790928078288302845126572[/TABLE]
    Ron Wanttaja
     
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2019
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  15. Mar 29, 2019 #15

    BJC

    BJC

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    Any way to validate the RANS numbers?


    BJC
     
  16. Mar 29, 2019 #16

    Wanttaja

    Wanttaja

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    Looking at the above table, I see the RANS (overall) value was incorrect for 2018, and have fixed it. Was 1043, corrected number 636.

    Ron Wanttaja
     
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  17. Mar 29, 2019 #17

    Wanttaja

    Wanttaja

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    Just as a reminder, the data in the above table includes only aircraft listed in the FAA registry as Experimental Amateur-Built. It includes (of course) only US-registered aircraft, and does not include:
    - Aircraft with homebuilt-like names that are registered in some other category or do not list a certification category in their listing
    - Aircraft that have been removed from the FAA registry, either by not renewing their registration at the scheduled time or having been manually removed by the owner or insurance company.
    - Kits that have been built and registered in other countries, or completed aircraft that have been exported to other countries.

    Homebuilts end up with a variety of make and model entries, and I make an effort to develop filters for the database to catch all the variations. So the "Vans RV-6" line searches for entries that contain "RV-6", "RV6", or "RV 6". There are always a few airplanes with unusual designations for common types, these may not be caught by my filters.

    There are also a large number of homebuilts that are NOT recorded as such by the FAA records. These are also not included in the above table.

    Ron Wanttaja
     

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