Raptor Composite Aircraft

Discussion in 'Aircraft Design / Aerodynamics / New Technology' started by Dexacare, Mar 28, 2016.

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  1. Jun 10, 2019 #641

    rv6ejguy

    rv6ejguy

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    I really was going to use the word infamous vs. fame but that wouldn't have been so sarcastic. I've crossed swords with John on this forum years ago about his non-proven ideas and projected performance specs on Synergy. I found it ironic that John would be giving Peter advice here since both have relied on scale model testing but have yet to show the world that their designs will best designs which are already out there flying like Velocity and Lancair IVP.
     
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  2. Jun 10, 2019 #642

    rv6ejguy

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    Peter put out a 45 minute video tonight on the test pilot's evaluation of the Raptor. Sticking points were the engine, single ECU, elevator layout and control system and winglet and fence design. So Peter has his first real reality check from an outsider. The project will be delayed for sometime now he admits though he plans to fast taxi test it himself. Glad he has at least listened. His justifications for some of the design decisions just don't make sense. He's tired and needs a break as he says himself.

    Anyway, the guy is transparent, I'll give him that, but totally unrealistic in the scope and timetable of this project.
     
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  3. Jun 10, 2019 #643

    cheapracer

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    Not looking good for anybody.

    Now we find out in the video he discloses where the money comes from, the buyers, 124 of them at $20,000 each. That's $2.5 million.

    Now that it is confirmed it's actually the Public's money, I will call it a scam. Oh it may be the most honest project on the planet, but that doesn't change that this guy took money for a project completely out of his depth, and that he has completely honest intentions or not isn't relevant, it doesn't alter the current situation or financial losses,

    .... and he hasn't even the faintest clue of how much harder, and expensive, actual production is going to be - if it ever flies and gets to that stage at all.



    And why does he even need to get to Oshkosh except to waste more money, time and boost his ego when he has, obviously, 124 definite orders to deal with first.
     
  4. Jun 10, 2019 #644

    Andy_RR

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    It's unfair to call it a scam because Peter didn't elaborate what each $20k actually bought, if anything at all. Unless Peter has actually run away with the cash and done something else than what he promised to do, it's really a best endeavors effort which hasn't quite made the grade yet and probably needs more cash than first expected, which is not an uncommon problem for projects like this.

    I kind of feel sorry for the situation that he has found himself in, although it was to some extent foreseeable. The issue will be how to move it forward or dissolve what's been generated and redistribute the proceeds to the backers.
     
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  5. Jun 10, 2019 #645

    BJC

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    It certainly looks to be on the path toward not doing what was promised in the performance specs. And yes, ignorance is expensive, as is arrogance.

    Yup, classic lose-lose, because neither the promoter nor his investors knew (know?) what they don’t know.

    There are proceeds beyond the sales from a few shirts? Any idea of the cost to get the project to where it is?


    BJC
     
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  6. Jun 10, 2019 #646

    rv6ejguy

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    I think $2.7M was mentioned to date.
     
  7. Jun 10, 2019 #647

    BJC

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    Right, but I was asking about income from actually selling something, not from deposits or gifts.


    BJC
     
  8. Jun 10, 2019 #648

    rv6ejguy

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    As far as I've seen, nothing has traded hands other than some promotional items so I don't think he's sold anything tangible or substantial.

    I'd like to see what his new idea is for production. I don't think he has a clue what that would take to set up in the numbers required to fill the orders he has.

    I disagree with him that the IP for this design is worth much until it flies and performance comes close to his predictions- both of which are highly in doubt now.
     
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  9. Jun 10, 2019 #649

    BBerson

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    Seems to me the test pilot should be involved from the start. And the prototype built in secret.
    But I see things different, I guess.
     
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  10. Jun 10, 2019 #650

    Steve C

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    What I got out of the video is that the test pilot is pretty sharp. It sure would have been a lot less painful to bring someone like that in on the project much sooner.

    Also, a lot of excuses for bad decisions and he thinks a prop extension on a reliable aircraft engine is a bigger liability than the powerplant he built...which can make 350hp all day long. Yeah right!
     
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  11. Jun 10, 2019 #651

    pictsidhe

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    Has it made 350hp for an hour yet?
     
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  12. Jun 10, 2019 #652

    Turd Ferguson

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    The money funded a 4 yr hobby shop. If the entire project is sold it might bring in 20 cents on the dollar and the mood seems to be if there is no test pilot, it's the end of the line.
     
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  13. Jun 10, 2019 #653

    Deuelly

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    He also mentions he couldn't do the Continental because it would weigh too much and he would possibly have to move the firewall forward? Weigh more than what hes got now? Wow!
     
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  14. Jun 11, 2019 #654

    mcrae0104

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    Question for you canard guys out there: does the weight tend to creep forward during development the same way it tends to creep aft for tractors?
     
  15. Jun 11, 2019 #655

    Marc Zeitlin

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    For reasons that I'm sure I can't fully articulate, weight always tends to increase and move aft. Some 6th Newton's law, or something. On VE's and LE's, it's because folks tend to throw larger engines on and more stuff on their engine. Also, more of the structure is aft (wings, winglet, main landing gear, spar, etc.) so if someone's throwing a bit more glass, epoxy and filler on than they actually need, it's going to have more of an affect aft. Maybe that's the whole story...

    SS2 (although not a canard, it IS a pusher) certainly had this issue in spades - you should see how much tungsten is up in the nose, forward of the 6 ksi helium tank that's about 3 ft. in diameter and about 5 ft. long, which isn't light either.

    The only airplane I've run into that was nose heavy was my original Q2 - I had to move the battery aft of the seats in order to get the CG in a reasonable place (after nosing it over and breaking the prop due to having lousy tailwheel authority during a taxi test).

    And back to the Raptor - it's tough when reality hits you in the face with a 2x4. I've had it happen a few times, and it's not fun.

    I'm not sure I agree with the TP's evaluation of issues - those would have been further down MY histogram - but if the questions the TP asks can't be answered immediately, there's a problem. The $2.7M spent is gone - whatever Peter thinks someone might give him for a >1K lb. overweight non-flying plane is an illusion. The estimate of 20% ($540K) is optimistic, IMO. Those folks that put down a deposit in an escrow account will get their money back - the $20K investors, well, as I told my son when he wanted to invest $30K in an E-Sports team in Brazil (yeah - whatever you're thinking - that's what _I_ said), assume that you just flushed it down the toilet. If you see any of it shoot back out the sink drain, that's great, but don't hold your breath.

    With respect to Ross' statement about production issues - Ross is 120% correct. Peter has NO clue how to productize this thing, whatever he thinks his secret MFG methodology might be. ICON (yeah, I know you guys think they're clowns, but they're not - just made a bunch of poor management decisions along the way) built the prototype, to prove the IDEA of the plane, in about 8 - 12 months, IIRC. That was with 4 - 5 people. THEY thought they'd be in production a year or two later, and that was just about when I joined in 2011. Took them 7 years, and that was after hiring a bunch of people who knew what they were doing, and over $100M in investment. Designing the plane (particularly without concern for how it will be MFG'd) is about 2% of the total work involved.
     
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  16. Jun 11, 2019 #656

    flyboy2160

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    It is one of The Laws of Aircraft Structures

    1. Big Bolts Carry Big Loads

    2. Little Bolts Carry Little Loads

    3. If You Don't Have Any Structure, You Can't Carry Any Loads

    Cor. A12: Wiring and Hydraulic Lines Shown on the SA Drawing Do NOT Count as Structure (Added in Honor of the A12)

    4. When In Doubt, Blend With A Large Radius

    Cor. 1: If Still In Doubt, Increase The Scale Of The Drawing

    5. All Loads Are Reacted at the Engine Attach Points

    6. No Loads Are Reacted In My Section. All Loads Just Pass Through My Section

    7. The Plane Will Always Be Tail Heavy

    Cor. F35 : It Is A Total Waste of Time and Money to Design and Build An All Composite Forward Fuselage, Especially When You RTM The Whole Thing In One Shot Using Tooling Pieces That Weigh, Literally, A ton.
     
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2019
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  17. Jun 11, 2019 #657

    flyboy2160

    flyboy2160

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    Did you laugh, scoff, or cuss when he said to the $20K investors "I'll make sure you guys all get your money back!"
     
  18. Jun 11, 2019 #658

    flyboy2160

    flyboy2160

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    I can't believe the potential Test Pilot didn't ping those bonded-in windows. I'd want a ground pressure test of those suckers.
     
  19. Jun 11, 2019 #659

    Vigilant1

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    It only becomes an issue if the plane ever gets high enough to have a significant pressure differential between inside and out. Maybe that's a scenario he believes to be improbable or far, far in the future.
     
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  20. Jun 11, 2019 #660

    BJC

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    Keep in mind that what is presented on the video is Peter’s take on what Len said.


    BJC
     
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