Raptor Composite Aircraft

[BBerson]

If the market is near zero then what about the 1500 deposits? I wonder if investors actually verify anything like deposits before investing?

 

[Vigilant1]

I think we should stay away from discussions of the Raptor business plan, etc.

Please stick to the technical aspects and news of the Raptor project or this discussion will terminate.

 

[BBerson]

That was a general investor question, not an unsubstantiated allegation about Raptor.

 

[pictsidhe]

They've got it listed on their website:

http://www.velocityaircraft.com/airplane-models-txl.html

But if they don't actually sell them, then the answer is zero, and that only supports my argument about the size of the market even more.

Which gives another data point in the argument for this being a tiny market, unless one argues that the right airplane that the huge demand has been waiting for just hasn't existed until now.

I suspect that many of the Raptor deposits are from non-pilots.

 

[donjohnston]

They've got it listed on their website:

http://www.velocityaircraft.com/airplane-models-txl.html

But if they don't actually sell them, then the answer is zero, and that only supports my argument about the size of the market even more

Interesting logic.

I didn't say they don't sell them. I said there is no specific TXL kit. As for the model list, you'll notice those are just specs (which with the exception of weight) are the same as the XL. Finally, if you look at the kit prices, you'll notice that there is no TXL listed. Only SE, XL and Twin. Everything beyond the basic kit is an option. i.e. Retract landing gear, 5 seats, side sticks, turbo charged engine, etc.

So using your logic, because they don't have an XL-RG listed in the kit prices, then they've never sold one.

As for the number of TXL Velocitys flying, I was not providing that number to imply it was a large market. You stated that could only find one. I was simply trying to provide you with a more accurate number.

 

[BBerson]

I suspect that many of the Raptor deposits are from non-pilots.

That may be. But nothing wrong with that if he found a way to attract new pilots.
My view is the company still has some chance of success, even if this prototype crashes. Elon Musks first three rockets blew up. It takes a rare risk taker to do these difficult things, ignore the naysayers, and eventually succeed on the third try.
He might need more expert help from others to continue from here. I applaud Marc, Justin and Elliot for stepping up to help.
I would consider investment if this was a light sport that I understand. A successful investor friend once told me you invest in particular people, not companies.

 

[Doggzilla]

As Elon once said, he had to do it himself because nobody good would come work for him at first.

If Peter can get anywhere near his goals then he can hire someone more experienced to do the next prototype.

The great thing about running a company is that you can hire other people to work for you.

 

[Marc Zeitlin]

I didn't say they don't sell them. I said there is no specific TXL kit....
As for the number of TXL Velocitys flying, I was not providing that number to imply it was a large market. You stated that could only find one. I was simply trying to provide you with a more accurate number.

Thanks for the explanation of how Velocity markets their kits.

A search on the FAA database for "Velocity XL" (forget the TXL) only shows 5 aircraft, which I know is incorrect low. MFG designation is probably limiting that substantially. In any case, finding accurate numbers for flying turbo-charged Velocity XL's (TXL) is difficult (unless Velocity has them and can tell us), but the answer is still that it's a low # - tens to 100 max, almost certainly, over the many years that they've been offering the option.

My point was that the market is small, and I think that point still stands. If folks wanted this type of plane, other than the pressurization, it's already available as the Velocity XL. And with pressurization, it's available as the Lancair IVP, of which there are also somewhere around 200 - 250 registered, per the FAA database. Over a ~20 - 30 year sale period for both planes, that kind of gives an idea that the market is small.

I've lost track of why market size was a point of discussion .

 

[BJC]

My point was that the market is small, and I think that point still stands. If folks wanted this type of plane, other than the pressurization, it's already available as the Velocity XL. And with pressurization, it's available as the Lancair IVP, of which there are also somewhere around 200 - 250 registered, per the FAA database. Over a ~20 - 30 year sale period for both planes, that kind of gives an idea that the market is small.

I've lost track of why market size was a point of discussion

See projected cost for the top of the line Velocity here http://www.velocityaircraft.com/images/Cost of A T-XLRG-5 Top Of The Line 2014.pdf

See the cost of a finished Raptor here http://www.raptor-aircraft.com/ordering.html

Note the difference in cost for a completed Raptor versus a Velocity that has to be built. Note the difference in performance. Note the added features, such as pressurization, in the Raptor, and the clearly superior automobile diesel engine. Anyone that can deliver on the Raptor claims can create a market.


BJC

 

[narfi]

Note the difference in cost for a completed Raptor versus a Velocity that has to be built. Note the difference in performance. Note the added features, such as pressurization, in the Raptor, and the clearly superior automobile diesel engine. Anyone that can deliver on the Raptor claims can create a market.


BJC

This.
It isn't that their isn't a desire for the class of aircraft, it is that there is a lack of budget by the people who desire it.
It is the class those on a budget dream of but cant afford, where those with money would just skip over and go straight to turboprops/small jets.

 

[mcrae0104]

Anyone that can deliver on the Raptor claims can create a market.

I see you're a true believer now.

 

[BoKu]

...See the cost of a finished Raptor here http://www.raptor-aircraft.com/ordering.html...

Minor quibble: It's still an amateur-built aircraft from a kit. But that page does not exactly make that clear, tossing around sentences like "...We are pricing the finished aircraft based upon..." and "...take delivery of your aircraft..." and "...Once your air frame is complete..."

In particular, the paragraph "Construction of your Raptor" suggests that Peter does not understand how the FAA actually evaluates amateur-built status these days. That **** might have flown in the 1990s, but these days the FAA isn't having it.

 

[BJC]

What? He doesn’t understand?

This part

... When we begin construction of your air frame 30% of your aircraft price will be due. Once your air frame is complete and is ready for engine, avionics and interior a further 30% will be due. The balance will be due upon delivery of the completed aircraft.

would lead one to believe that he is offering a completed airplane.


BJC

 

[Vigilant1]

Given that, maybe the thing slowing the project down is the time spent by the development team with all the documentation and paperwork to get this engine and airframe certified by the FAA while the development is continuing.
That probably takes a lot of effort.

 

[Bert]

What? He doesn’t understand?

This part would lead one to believe that he is offering a completed airplane.


BJC

3. How much time do I need contribute to the construction of the aircraft?
The minimum requirement in order to still satisfy the 51% rule for experimental aircraft will be 3 weeks at a construction facility where you will be supervised in closing out various components of the airframe so you have a decent understanding of how your Raptor is constructed. For most people this will be a very fun and exciting adventure. Once the airframe is complete we can transfer it to a build completion center for the engine, avioincs, interior and paint or you can have it delivered and complete these items yourself. We are going to recommend a completion center as they will have a production line approach to completion and have your aircraft flying faster and for less cost than you can do it yourself. Again, the $130K price is the finished and flying price that we are presently projecting.

From the FAQ

 

[Bert]

I am glad to see that there is beginning to be a favorable comment or two for this project. It was getting difficult to differentiate between actual hard data and supposition for a while.

I was also happy to see that the test pilot gave a qualified "yes" to flying the Raptor. I was getting the feeling that no one would ever try to fly it.

Thanks also to Marc for the update and realignment of perspectives on the project. Actual data always helps.

 

[Topaz]

3. How much time do I need contribute to the construction of the aircraft?
The minimum requirement in order to still satisfy the 51% rule for experimental aircraft will be 3 weeks at a construction facility where you will be supervised in closing out various components of the airframe so you have a decent understanding of how your Raptor is constructed. For most people this will be a very fun and exciting adventure. Once the airframe is complete we can transfer it to a build completion center for the engine, avioincs, interior and paint or you can have it delivered and complete these items yourself. We are going to recommend a completion center as they will have a production line approach to completion and have your aircraft flying faster and for less cost than you can do it yourself. Again, the $130K price is the finished and flying price that we are presently projecting.

From the FAQ

Oy. I'm with Boku, they seem to be really riding the edge of the rule, the way a lot of "build centers" in the '90's were, before the FAA cracked down on the practice. This is probably going to have to be adjusted, since the project is so very "public" and the FAA is surely aware of it by now.

 

[BoKu]

BTW, here is the current FAA amateur-built assessment checklist. I have a hard time seeing how an aircraft of Raptor's complexity could meet the major portion rules with just three weeks of customer "hands-on."

https://www.faa.gov/aircraft/gen_av/ultralights/amateur_built/kits/media/AmBuiltFabAssyCklistFW.pdf

 

[Andy_RR]

You will be able to visit your local clinic to have the specified 51%-worth of blood, sweat and tears extracted to be mailed to the Raptor build centre...

 

[BoKu]

You will be able to visit your local clinic to have the specified 51%-worth of blood, sweat and tears extracted to be mailed to the Raptor build centre...

If that includes installing 51% of the carbon fiber splinters you get building an airplane like that, your hands would look like porcupines.