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Pops

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I came from California; I left in 2004, and have not looked back. I would not go back there even if my employer gave me an 8-figure salary. Can barely stand the place...even if its for a brief work trip. Don't get me wrong- there is alot of aviation history there and alot to go see and do...but their state government is all-in on economic and cultural suicide. Lost cause...don't do it. It is not the economic powerhouse it was 30 years ago...nor will it be for a very, very long time. When select high profile business leaders are openly calling the state out and actively working to wash there hands of the place, how do you think a small business will fare?

Maryland: I live here. Close to the water, alot of history, good for family, but not friendly at all to small business. We are looking forward to leaving soon.

Tennessee/Kentucky: Yes to both, especially out in the eastern parts. I lived there for a good while, just north of Nashville. Low cost of living and doing business (we have a facility out at Piney Flats)...but Nashville has terrible traffic 24/7/365. Knoxville is a great town!!

North Carolina / South Carolina: Not a bad area at all. Relatively low cost of living, and the coastlines are awesome. A place called "Kill Devil Hill" is there, and I hear something significant in aviation happened there some years ago!

Florida: Great state. Location of Sun n Fun, and Dan Johnson and the Light Aircraft Manufacturers Association is based there. Great place for both family, recreation and business. If it were up to me, I'd go there, time now.

Texas: This is where I am heading in 2023. Great for business, not a bad cost of living. I will be in the DFW region...and guess what- did I mention they are a big fan of small business? They even have hangar spaces available in the region at the many airports all around! I'd take a look at Mineral Wells (KMWL). They're east of DFW, are developing, and my employer is taking a very, very, very serious look at relocating its Flight Research Center from Arlington to there.

At the end of the day, do your due diligence and make what choice is good for you and your business. But please, keep California out of your realm of consideration; you are completely undeserving of the regret you will feel if you try setting up shop there!
Back many years ago when we were a fed gov contractor, they wanted our company to relocate to southern TX. Offered a huge incentive to move that was very hard to refuse. If we signed the contract it meant that we would have to expand with more airplanes and employees with the move. We ended up selling the company and retiring and moving to the grass field airport where we live. Money isn't everything. Looking back, we made the right decision.
 

SpruceForest

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This is another of those 50,000 feet view things, so skip if that stuff is of little use.

With the end of the global lash-up, us North Americans - and particularly the US and Canada-based folk - will have to rebuild our industrial and tech base if we're going to be able to have...STUFF. In particular, all the stuff that China has produced for the last 40 years will largely be gone within a decade, so replacing those mid-tech and low-tech products with NA-produced stuff will require us to roughly DOUBLE our industrial capacity. This rebuild will take a lot of $$$, which means someone (consumers) will be paying for it. We have inflation now, but it's mostly tied to preventable mistakes. In the future, we'll see inflation because all that capital to rebuild has to come from somewhere, so recovery on investment will force manufacturing costs and even raw materials ever upwards.

To the folks that think the bulk of that rebuilding activity will flow to Mexico or other lower wage area, consider that there are only 30 million people in the part of Mexico that is attractive for manufacturing to support other North American markets, and most of that area is in the middle of a current civil war between the drug cartels. There are other issues with Mexico as well, to include spotty educational systems, lack of workforce development and national skill-base build, and resource constrains (e.g., water, water, water...manufacturing uses a LOT of water). That said, that rebuild will do for Mexico what the Marshal Plan did for Japan, and all without US and Canadian taxpayers footing the bill.

So much of the manufacturing and tech base rebuild will occur in the US and Canada, with a related build-out of the energy sector. No - you don't get to the future without a near doubling of oil and gas production short of kind-hearted aliens dropping a million mini-fusion plants and 100 million micro-fusion portable systems. All of this rebuilding/expansion of manufacturing, tech, and energy means we continue to see a tight labor market for what will likely be the next decade, if not two, exacerbated by retirement of us boomers (the world's largest, most skilled, knowledgable, and productive generation in history), GenX's penchant for trading work time off for family time (and their own early retirements to 'smell the roses'), and the diminutive size of both the Millennia/GenY and Zoomer/GenZ workforces.

The future holds more competition for existing physical plant space, longer delays in construction of new physical plant (what happens when all that recycled steel stops arriving from Russia and China for reprocessing, and we have to go dig all that ore out of the ground again to make rebar, ductile iron for machines, tool steel for bits, etc.?), tougher/more expensive staffing, and much more aggressive poaching of skilled workers once you've sunk all those dollars into training that GenY/GenZ worker (and may not have been necessary for a Boomer or Gen X new-hire, but good luck finding them).

On the plus side, we have another 30-35 years before what is slamming into China, Russia, and other 'winners' in the demographics ZPG race right NOW hits us, so there is every reason to hope that our national leaders pay attention to how those nations handle the train wreck.

So seems like those facing the job of establishing new facilities will see some unique challenges as we move into this new era, and it seems like reasonable advice to move on facilities sooner rather than later; try to leverage what Boomers/X'ers you can find; keep to train your youngsters, and plan for supply chain disruptions until that industrial base buildout is well advanced.

That's it. Good luck to those shopping for infrastructure, staff, and capital!
 
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Riggerrob

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Dear Spruce Forest made some interesting points.
Does this mean that new industry will move into facilities vacated by a decreasing North American population?
Or will they move into previous under-developed areas like Eastern Washington State or Eastern Oregon?
 

Vigilant1

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With the end of the global lash-up, us North Americans - and particularly the US and Canada-based folk - will have to rebuild our industrial and tech base if we're going to be able to have...STUFF.
Thanks, an interesting post. Two comments:
1) I don't think we need to imagine an isolationist or even "North American-partners-only" manufacturing future for the US. The unbridled global free market may be a thing of the past, but there is still a large pool of countries in the Americas, Europe, and Asia that share important common values and aren't trying to bury us. Enough, anyway, so there's room for countries to specialize in areas where they have a competitive advantage. That's good for everyone.
2) The need for US manufacturing of "stuff" presumes an ongoing demand for stuff--and the ability to pay for it. I wonder. When the credit runs dry (domestically and abroad) and we aren't already producing a lot, it's not clear where the capital for new plant, training, etc will come from. The personal savings of Boomers ain't gonna fund much.
 

tspear

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The personal savings of Boomers ain't gonna fund much.

Boomers have or are close to having the worst savings rate in modern history; so yeah not much savings. Boomers also continued and greatly expanded the use of the countries credit card, leaving future generations to pay the bill. Does not matter if discussing current debt, or structural debt.

So where will the capital come from? No where. It will be borrowed.

Tim
 

Victor Bravo

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Florida: Great state. Location of Sun n Fun, and Dan Johnson and the Light Aircraft Manufacturers Association is based there. Great place for both family, recreation and business.

Yeah, but isn't there supposed to be a difference between the percent water content of the ocean and the percent water content of the air?

And I can at least get away from the roaches, snakes, and gators in LA, all you have to do is get off of Sunset Bl. and drive north for 20 or 30 minutes.
 

PMD

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Boomers have or are close to having the worst savings rate in modern history; so yeah not much savings. Boomers also continued and greatly expanded the use of the countries credit card, leaving future generations to pay the bill. Does not matter if discussing current debt, or structural debt.

So where will the capital come from? No where. It will be borrowed.

Tim
What you are missing is that our economy has transitioned from capitalism - where real money is invested by real people - to casino capitalism where it's "money for nothing and the chicks for free". The money supply is based on nothing but agreed conventions (even the "gold standard" required some arbitrary value to be placed on gold). We have lost the lessons of the '20s where the speculative economy crashed and we legislated protection from the venom of speculators. We hit that wall in '08 but instead of punishing the offenders, they were rewarded with "too big to fail" legislation (or more to the point a LACK of legislation, regulation and enforcement). The "money" to go forward instead of being fiat currency earned by the measure of productivity of a capitalist economy creating wealth will now come from a speculative economy that expands the money supply in a horribly inflationary way by simply declaring more money to exist. Look at the values of "market value" of equities, but far worse the trading value of "synthetic instruments" such as derivatives or crypto currency. When you double or triple the declared and agreed value of "money for nothing" it dillutes the value proportionally of actual wealth created from productive activities and shifts the balance of power from those who create wealth to those who merely re-distribute it (mostly into their own pockets). So, the "money" will simply come from and for nothing - where the chicks are indeed free.
 

foolonthehill

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BIGSHU: Here is both our scale wind tunnel model being erected, and the full size unit prior to breakdown and shipping. The entire composite assembly weighed less than 400 lbs, started turning at 3mph wind, making power at 6mph, and certified and insurance underwritten to 120mph winds without having to stop, because it's a drag based system, not lift based. Avian see it, and fly around it, so it's not an Avian Cuisineart like the propellers on a stick. For the rest of you, I apologize for briefly taking this thread off topic.03-Picture 596.JPG
 

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it's not clear where the capital for new plant, training, etc will come from.
Same place it has always come from = People that are willing to work just a little longer/harder/smarter than needed to survive and then be willing to join with another that has done the same to risk their 'excess' on an idea to improve their standard of living ......... and maybe even that of their neighbor.

Wealth, money and currency are NOT the same things even though many try to make them fungible.

Edit:
As PMD noted above those that don't understand the difference often get their wealth stolen, transferred unknowingly, by those in control of the currency that may or may not understand the difference
 
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tspear

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BIGSHU: Here is both our scale wind tunnel model being erected, and the full size unit prior to breakdown and shipping. The entire composite assembly weighed less than 400 lbs, started turning at 3mph wind, making power at 6mph, and certified and insurance underwritten to 120mph winds without having to stop, because it's a drag based system, not lift based. Avian see it, and fly around it, so it's not an Avian Cuisineart like the propellers on a stick. For the rest of you, I apologize for briefly taking this thread off topic.View attachment 127714

That is so cool!

How do you determine where/how is a good place for it? And does it have height limitations? Or is better mounted on the top of a tower?

Tim
 

SpruceForest

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Global trade is not ending... just the contract we signed with the rest of the non-Soviet world back after WW2 to a) police the sea lanes to keep trade routes safe and insurable, and to b) provide a global trading currency that was largely unmanipulated. I have no idea as to how fast things will fall apart, but they WILL fall apart. The good news is that Mexico and the US are already benefiting from the chaos, and Canada will see some beneficial splatter just by virtue of proximity and fortunate ties through USMCA to our common markets. Lots of other folks will still be trading, but gone will be the days where you could buy and ship a bag of 4-40 nuts and bolts from China for what just the postage from Cleveland on the same manufacturer's nut and bolts would run from a US vendor. I really want to think that everyone wins something in the future, but that looks very unlikely.

Re: energy...I love wind and solar...I really do. That wind turbine is cool and likely does not 'Cusinart' (thanks, Bigshu!) our fellow aviators nearly as often as can happen with some conventional windmill designs. The US has fortunately-placed mountain ranges and deserts (+++ wind) as well as being closer to the equator than any other major industrial power (++ solar), but short of fusion power or those benevolent aliens showing up with nth dimensional energy pumps for all of us, gas and oil will dominate our energy future despite current policy being generated local to my home EAA chapter's airport. If you want to see the near future of energy policy for the US, just look at what the EU is having to do to unwind all that ESG-driven investment decisionmaking and 'good' energy versus 'bad' energy thinking. Look up 'lignite' and understand that that's what Europe's largest economy is going to have to rely upon for a few decades to replace all that natural gas that will no longer be flowing west short of a dark miracle. And that does not even touch on impacts to all that stuff we need to import for auto and aviation batteries... what happens when an auto-scale or light aircraft-scale power plant battery sees a 3X-8X increase in production cost because the pacific hegemon that controls the raw materials used is suddenly absent from the world? After all, they are not e-cars and e-airplanes, but rather battery-powered cars and airplanes.
 
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tspear

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It is amazing to me how much people continue to believe that there is no choice but to remain dependent on O&G.
The numbers disagree with you.
Here is the info on O&G specifically:

You will see a significant decline in the past few years. And the numbers have NOT so far come back up.

Further, look at this page: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/
Ans scroll down to the primary major energy sources by year chart. You will see that even as our economy and population have both continued to expand since 2000, we have had small decrease in total energy consumption. You will also note that the potion of "renewables" as continued to slowly increase.

Is it a slam dunk? Nope. But the transition has already started.

Tim
 

PMD

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Until battery energy density increases something between 20x to 50x there will be no battery powered REAL working airplanes.
 
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