Quantcast

OFF-TOPIC Mathematical or Data Analysis Request OFF-TOPIC

HomeBuiltAirplanes.com

Help Support HomeBuiltAirplanes.com:

Victor Bravo

Well-Known Member
HBA Supporter
Joined
Jul 30, 2014
Messages
8,273
Location
KWHP, Los Angeles CA, USA
This is only 1% on-topic, and that 1% is only because I know some of the folks on this forum have very high levels of education in mathematics, prob/stat, data analysis, and the related disciplines. All of that is faaar beyond my capacity to understand or put into practical use.

An aviation friend of mine (retired Huey gunship driver) e-mailed me something containing a fair amount of data analysis. This analysis purportedly indicated that there is a measurable anomaly which affected the quantitative results of a non-aviation matter of interest to me. But making any sense out of the data, and especially determining if the data was valid, is out of my skill set.

But, the question which the data was being collected to answer is not really on-topic here. I don't want to violate the HBA code of conduct by getting into something that's not about airplanes.

So, are any of the qualified math/data people here are interested in looking at the data report that was sent to me, and applying your skills to form an opinion as to whether the purported anomaly could be valid, or is likely to not be valid?

Again the underlying question is a non-aviation matter, so it probably is not relevant to HBA... but the only access I have to really smart data people is through this forum, so if any of you high brain function types want to apply those brain cells to an interesting puzzle, please PM me.

Nobody's on the hook for anything, nobody has any responsibility for solving any major problems, no legal repercussions, no money changing hands, nothing even remotely outside of any law. And I will reciprocate in kind with a little of my skills or capabilities should you ever need it.
 

stevel

Well-Known Member
Joined
Feb 2, 2012
Messages
125
Location
Camarillo, California
So J.E. is a conspiracy fantasist too? Does critical thinking even exist, or was that my misguided fantasy. (I'm making an assumption that it is an analysis that involves the timing of certain events that did not go his way.)
 

Victor Bravo

Well-Known Member
HBA Supporter
Joined
Jul 30, 2014
Messages
8,273
Location
KWHP, Los Angeles CA, USA
No, not him. He's an explosives man, not a Huey driver.

Another person (who is not above being duped and "Bubba-baited" by internet BS) sent me something that had the initial outward appearance of being based on data and mathematical probabilities. Considering the amount of disinformation, misinformation, and tainted information coming from all corners of the internet, it seemed wonderfully refreshing that someone appeared to be making a statement based on measurable data, as opposed to arm-waving.

So I am hoping to find people who have the "quant" chops to make an educated assessment. This is the only place where there are people who I know, who have that skill, and may be able to limit their assessment to the mathematical validity (or invalidity) of the data.

It is precisely that critical thinking (within the framework of prob/stat and data) that I am looking for. No conspiracies, no little green men, no Loch Ness Monster.
 

proppastie

Well-Known Member
Log Member
Joined
Feb 19, 2012
Messages
4,834
Location
NJ
but is the Data correct?....but a 1% error is how many?
 

Marc Zeitlin

Exalted Grand Poobah
Joined
Dec 11, 2015
Messages
816
Location
Tehachapi, CA
So I am hoping to find people who have the "quant" chops to make an educated assessment. This is the only place where there are people who I know, who have that skill, and may be able to limit their assessment to the mathematical validity (or invalidity) of the data.
I can't guarantee that I have (or ever had) the math skills to analyze what you're looking for, but the only way to find out would be to send it along and let me take a look at it.

Email, please.
 

flyboy2160

Well-Known Member
Joined
May 25, 2014
Messages
362
Location
california, USA
....
Another person (who is not above being duped and "Bubba-baited" by internet BS) sent me something that had the initial outward appearance of being based on data and mathematical probabilities. Considering the amount of disinformation, misinformation, and tainted information coming from all corners of the internet, it seemed wonderfully refreshing that someone appeared to be making a statement based on measurable data, as opposed to arm-waving.
...
 

Attachments

mcrae0104

Well-Known Member
HBA Supporter
Log Member
Joined
Oct 27, 2009
Messages
3,632
Thank you for giving a theoretical foundation for procrastinators.
 

pwood66889

Well-Known Member
Joined
Feb 10, 2007
Messages
1,768
Location
Sopchoppy, Florida, USA
The only "slackers" I know personally are my wife's chickens. They have not been producing eggs more and more as the temp's get less and less.
The idea expressed in the attached paper is mathematically attractive, yet kinda stinks from an accounting standpoint. I did not see any "opportunity costs;" the money lost during the time lost. And it does not account for the guy with the "slower" computer getting to the answer in the time one waits.
And yet, the OP's project does sound like a neat one!
 

Marc Zeitlin

Exalted Grand Poobah
Joined
Dec 11, 2015
Messages
816
Location
Tehachapi, CA
The idea expressed in the attached paper is mathematically attractive, yet kinda stinks from an accounting standpoint. I did not see any "opportunity costs;" the money lost during the time lost. And it does not account for the guy with the "slower" computer getting to the answer in the time one waits.
I think you're missing the point. For large, long term projects, the guy with the slower computer doesn't finish until AFTER the guy who waits a year or two and buys a faster computer - in the analysis, the breakeven point was for projects that took about 26 months - if it's shorter than that, start now. If it's longer than that, wait. So there is ZERO opportunity cost lost, because he won't finish earlier, he'll finish later. As the paper says, he'd have been better off financially by drinking magaritas on the beach, waiting around for the faster computer, than he would have been by starting the computation earlier.

Let's say I want to drive 3000 miles from NY to LA, and I've got a car that can average 50 mph. It'll take me 60 hours of driving. But if I wait 30 hours and get a car that can average 100 mph, I'll get there at the same time as the guy that started driving the first car 30 hours earlier. If the new car can go more than 100 mph, I'll get there before the guy that left 30 hours before me. Same thing.
 

flyboy2160

Well-Known Member
Joined
May 25, 2014
Messages
362
Location
california, USA
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!

C'mon, guys that paper was very clever, witty, humor. It fit with VB's crack about having "the initial outward appearance of being based on data and mathematical probabilities."

I especially laughed at the use of Hospital's rule (what we called it back in school) after taking the derivative of the function and setting it to zero to find the minimum, s*.
 

Victor Bravo

Well-Known Member
HBA Supporter
Joined
Jul 30, 2014
Messages
8,273
Location
KWHP, Los Angeles CA, USA
My initial inquiry was not about the paper that was posted in this thread. My inquiry was about a different, very serious topic, but one that is not aviation related.
 

proppastie

Well-Known Member
Log Member
Joined
Feb 19, 2012
Messages
4,834
Location
NJ
I am fortunate to have the initial opinions of two highly qualified people so far on this, however their conclusions are not identical.
America is a wonderful place ......you can believe what you want to believe....
 

Hot Wings

Grumpy Cynic
HBA Supporter
Log Member
Joined
Nov 14, 2009
Messages
7,448
Location
Rocky Mountains
This analysis purportedly indicated that there is a measurable anomaly which affected the quantitative results of a non-aviation matter of interest to me.
For some reason your question came to mind last night during a period of non-sleep. :confused:
My thought was that even if the data is is valid and properly analyzed this sounds like one of those cases where you have to separate correlation from causation.
Even if there is a direct correlation there may be a third, as yet unconsidered, variable that is in reality the controlling factor. Correlation is a good reason to set up an experiment, but not of itself enough evidence to prove an effect.
If the correlation is near 100% then we can use that for predictive purposes, but not for modification of the presumed dependent variable..............though this does get attempted with annoying and expensive regularity.
 
Top