Malaysian airlines missing plane

Discussion in 'Hangar Flying' started by oriol, Mar 12, 2014.

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  1. Nov 2, 2016 #441

    Jay Kempf

    Jay Kempf

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    One doesn't have to help with that.
     
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  2. Nov 2, 2016 #442

    ironnerd

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    I used to fix 777's for United Airlines. I can see a lot of ways this flight could have gone wrong. The thing is, I can't really share what I think happened on an open forum for a few reasons:
    1. It sounds bug-nuts crazy
    2. It's scary as hell
    3. If it really was what went happened, no one in their right mind would ever confirm it.
    4. By discussing it on an open forum, I would give info to the bad-guys who might actually try it...

    That's kind of a big problem. If someone figures out what really happened, it may be in the public's best interest that the actual events remain undisclosed.

    FWIW, I don't buy the suicide angle. If you wanna take yourself out, you just do it. You don't fly around aimlessly for hours and let the plane fall to the ocean "whenever".
     
  3. Nov 2, 2016 #443

    N8053H

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    IMHO I thought from the time I heard about this that this airplane was hi-jacked remotely. I have nothing to base this on but gut feelings. But from what I have heard and seen from other forms of transportation being Hi-jacked this way why could this not have happened here. Fly by wire or drive by wire scares the baggeezers out of me, with the ladder much more so. Drive by wire scares the baggeezzeers out of me more then anything. But this is another subject for a different forum or thread.

    Tony
     
  4. Nov 2, 2016 #444

    autoreply

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    It's still funny. A decade ago, with a few drunk friends we leaked a "secret spraying manual", directly from a 737 POH. The chemtrail-guys went absolutely mental. It still pops up every now and then.

    Happened multiple times though with other planes. Just a few years ago, almost the exact same scenario, albeit with a Cessna. Airline pilots are also people. Suicide is rarely (if ever) a rational deed.

    Ockham's razor is probably the most powerful tool in ruling out most scenario's in cases like this.
     
  5. Nov 2, 2016 #445

    12notes

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    Unless he/she didn't want to be awake when it happens, disabled the other pilot's reserve oxygen, set the autopilot to nowhere, and dropped cabin pressure until they passed out. I'm not sure if that's last part is possible with the cabin pressure controls, but it is possible by cutting a hole.

    Or literally die laughing by replacing the pilot's oxygen source with nitrous oxide.
     
  6. Nov 2, 2016 #446

    Himat

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    Some scenarios here to go with the razor:
    - The plane was captured by aliens, the passengers taken away and the plane ditched.
    - The plane was hijacked and flown to some remote airfield, some passengers and/or load unloaded and the plane ditched.
    - Suicide by one of the crew.
    - Suicide by one of the passengers.
    - One crew or passenger jumped of the airplane with parachute and ditched the airplane to mask his disappearance.
    - There was a hijack attempt that went wrong and left the airplane uncontrollable to the crew or without someone to control the airplane. The airplane then continued flying on the last heading until out of fuel.
    - A technical failure rendered the airplane uncontrollable to the crew or with the crew incapacitated, but the airplane continuing flying on the last heading until out of fuel.

    There could be more possibilities on the list, the two last ones is no more far fetched than suicide by the crew.
     
  7. Nov 2, 2016 #447

    clanon

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  8. Nov 2, 2016 #448

    ironnerd

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    I don't believe the suicide theory any more than I believe the wiring theory for TWA-800.
    Sorry, guys. I've seen the guts of 777's and 747's. I know how they work. There are back-ups for the back-ups. You could hack the yokes and throttles out of a 777 and it could still be flown quite well on autopilot alone.

    - The plane was captured by aliens, the passengers taken away and the plane ditched. - Interesting but very unlikely
    - The plane was hijacked and flown to some remote airfield, some passengers and/or load unloaded and the plane ditched. Never showed up on radar near an airfield large enough to land at and take off from
    - Suicide by one of the crew. Possible, but why would the rest of the crew just let it happen?
    - Suicide by one of the passengers. See above
    - One crew or passenger jumped of the airplane with parachute and ditched the airplane to mask his disappearance. If one of the crew departed the plane, the rest of the crew could have carried on
    - There was a hijack attempt that went wrong and left the airplane uncontrollable to the crew or without someone to control the airplane. The airplane then continued flying on the last heading until out of fuel.Maybe. It is possible that the pilot/crew depressurized in flight and performed the zoom climb to render everyone unconscious, but fell unconscious themselves and died of hypoxia
    - A technical failure rendered the airplane uncontrollable to the crew or with the crew incapacitated, but the airplane continuing flying on the last heading until out of fuel. That would have resulted in the type being taken out of service until the fault was corrected. That didn't happen, so I can't go along with it.
     
  9. Nov 2, 2016 #449

    Himat

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    But if it is possible to cut the communication between the pilots input devices and the flight control system?


    - The plane was captured by aliens, the passengers taken away and the plane ditched.
    Definitively:gig:


    - The plane was hijacked and flown to some remote airfield, some passengers and/or load unloaded and the plane ditched.
    And everyone involved have keept quiet ever since.


    - Suicide by one of the crew.
    The one perfoming the act incapacitated or looked out the others first.


    - Suicide by one of the passengers.

    - One crew or passenger jumped of the airplane with parachute and ditched the airplane to mask his disappearance.
    Not if first incapasitated.


    - There was a hijack attempt that went wrong and left the airplane uncontrollable to the crew or without someone to control the airplane. The airplane then continued flying on the last heading until out of fuel.

    - A technical failure rendered the airplane uncontrollable to the crew or with the crew incapacitated, but the airplane continuing flying on the last heading until out of fuel.
    Not as long as it is not known and no evidence this could have happened.
     
  10. Nov 2, 2016 #450

    bmcj

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    I hate it when that happens.
     
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  11. Nov 3, 2016 #451

    Topaz

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    Except that "suicide-by-airliner" has happened, with airliners, in just the past twenty years. More than once. If you can make it so the airplane is either never found or sufficiently pulverized that there is no data/voice-recorder "tattletale" left over, your family has a pretty good chance of seeing a life-insurance payout, because you "died in a crash".

    And it's still the scenario that best matches the available data.
     
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2016
  12. Nov 3, 2016 #452

    Kyle Boatright

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    I can think of 6 cases in addition to this one.
     
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  13. Nov 3, 2016 #453

    ironnerd

    ironnerd

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    I agree, it has happened and will happen again. But Malaysian was in the air for HOURS. Why didn't another member of the crew stop the suicidal individual?

    There is just something about this particular instance of the pilot suicide theory that bugs me, and I can't accept it. I'm not a conspiracy kook. I read quite a bit on Airplane Crashes to figure out the chain of events leading to the moment of impact. In all but two instances, I have accepted and agreed with the NTSB findings. I had no feeling of foul play with AirFrance, I just wondered what happened. This one though... I just really hope I'm wrong.
     
  14. Nov 3, 2016 #454

    Kyle Boatright

    Kyle Boatright

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    My guess is that the pilot sent the co-pilot out of the cockpit or killed the co-pilot, then locked the cabin door and depressurized the airplane at altitude. The cabin crew and passengers would have died within minutes once the drop down oxygen ran out. Then, the pilot would free to do as he pleased.

    We'll never know.
     
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  15. Nov 3, 2016 #455

    TMann

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    My money is on an in-flight fire and a disabled crew from smoke inhalation.

    A Boeing 777 (Egyptian Airlines) suffered a cockpit fire when an electrical short burned through the oxygen line in the cockpit. The blaze burned a hole through the outside skin of the aircraft.
    The flight captain said they were lucky to get out alive ....... and they were parked at the gate.

    see:
    http://theairplanenut.blogspot.com/2011/07/egyptair-boeing-777-suffers-cockpit.html
    http://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/flights/2013/05/09/boeing-777-fires/2147173/
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...-fire-could-yield-clues-to-missing-plane.html

    Also, as any good pilot would do when faced with an emergency (in the middle of the ocean), the plane make a substantial course change.
    If you follow the track, that course change took it over "the nearest airport" with a runway long enough for a landing.
     
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2016
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  16. Nov 3, 2016 #456

    Kevin N

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    Well.....they found a few little pieces. Maybe they will find some bigger chunks that will give them better forensic value. My only speculation is the crew was incapacitated. Either both or one with the other with evil intent. I flew that area of the world in the '90's in DC8's. Whole lot of nothing out there.
     
  17. Nov 3, 2016 #457

    Himat

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    As I see it, four main scenarios all matches published data with onlyone that could be considered less likely.

    - “Suicide by airliner”. If so the one person doing this did take some action to make it look less obvious so. I do then think about the change of course and heading to make the airplane run out of fuel far out at sea.

    - “Airplane hijack”. That somehow went wrong. The airplane could by accident be left on a heading to nowhere or of some reason the crew or hijackers sent the airplane far out at sea.

    - “Technical failure” The crew turned to the closest airport and then could do nothing more.

    - “Escape by parachute” The airplane was taken high to knock out the passengers, then low to jump and the autopilot set to get rid of any evidence.

    The last one is maybe not that probable, but can not be ruled out entirely. If this was the case some old man might confess something in the future or just have slip of tongue. Suicide by airliner, airplane hijack and crash due to technical failure are all known to have happened before and maybe less hijacking after this airplane did go missing. And those three all matches the available data.
     
  18. Nov 3, 2016 #458

    Topaz

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    Ummmm, an in-flight fire that was bad enough to not only incapacitate the crew, but also kill both redundant strings of comm devices, from radios to transponders to the data-portion of the ACARS system, but not the power supply to the basic ACARS transceiver, which kept on pinging for handshake for all the subsequent hours.

    And that fire wasn't bad enough to disable the automatic flight controls, so the aircraft did more or less a 180° turn after recovering from the zoom-climb, never zoom-climbed again, maneuvered across the island chain and onto the busiest airway west-bound, then turned south-west just a relatively short time outside primary commercial radar contact (but seen by a military radar that was under testing, IIRC), turning onto a heading directly into the center of the Indian Ocean - and then, after all that maneuvering, joining the airway, another turn, it suddenly changes behavior and flies straight-and-level for another 6-7 hours?

    What kind of fire is that, exactly? All those comm systems wiped out, crew wiped out, and yet the fire mysteriously allows the airplane do keep on flying and doing all this other stuff for hours and hours? Sorry, no kind of fire I've ever heard tell of.

    There's one scenario that works with all this - One pilot decided to commit "suicide by airline 'crash'", and hoped to cover his tracks by making sure the airplane is never found so his family gets the insurance payout when his airliner "crashes". This was, after all, just a very few years after AF447 nearly disappeared in the Atlantic. He kills, disables, or locks out his opposite number, pulls the breakers on all the radios, transponders, and the ACARS system - probably not realizing that the ACARS radio will keep on pinging for handshake even if the main computer is turned off, or that it even could be used by some really clever people to figure out the flight path of the airplane in a way that was thought impossible before they actually did it, after the crash.

    Whether the zoom-climb and subsequent erratic flight path immediately afterwards reflects a struggle in the cockpit or a deliberate attempt to wipe out the main cabin through hypoxia, I don't know. Regardless, once he's got the cockpit to himself, turns back across the island chain, turns north-west and then west to join the main west-bound airway (the original flight plan and path was north-northeast towards Vietnam), plays "radar ghost" in other traffic with all the aircraft's regular transponders, etc. turned off, and waits until he's out of regular commercial radar coverage. There's a big radar-hole out there, on the northern edge of the Indian Ocean. Then he turns south-west, not realizing there's a military radar operating where it only infrequently does, and heads for the very middle of the Indian Ocean. Turns on the autopilot and either sits back to wait for the fuel to run out, or offs himself knowing that it will eventually and that the autopilot will keep the airplane flying until that happens. Eventually the tanks go dry, the airplane ditches in level flight (damage to the flap components found so far is consistent with a controlled near-level impact with the water), and the airplane breaks up on impact and sinks, never to be seen again. Insurance pays out, family covered, suicide-causing issue or shame extinguished - along with the lives of all the passengers and crew.

    There's no mechanical failure that fits that string of events. There's no terrorist group that ever claimed responsibility, and they'd be all over it if they had done it. There's no place to parachute out of the aircraft and no reason to do so - again, "whomever" might have paid him never claimed credit for the incident, so motive goes away. Hijack seems utterly unlikely since "they" deliberately tried to make the airplane disappear, and it's not like you're going to sneak a 777 into any runway that could accommodate the aircraft - and again, even if this were a hijacking-gone-wrong, whatever group that send the guy(s) to do it never claimed the "consolation prize" credit of downing an airliner.

    That leaves a pilot trying to suicide and get the insurance payout for his family by "disappearing" the airplane, and it leaves Little Green Men.

    Me, I'm not going for flying saucers on this one.
     
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2016
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  19. Nov 3, 2016 #459

    StarJar

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    Dang Topaz, you missed your calling as crash investigator!
    I dig your logic there.
    And there is such a thing as suicide rate, and it may easily overtake the otherwise safety rate of airlines.
     
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2016
  20. Nov 3, 2016 #460

    Himat

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    I do still do not dismiss a technical failure. I have seen autonomus underwater vehicle autopilots fail, what then happen can look weird even if it have kind of logical explanation. I do not know airplane automation systems in depth, my knowledge is most on ship automation systems. There I have seen fully redundant systems with the possibility of failure modes that do not stop the system, but isolates the controlling system from any input by helmsman or navigator. When discovered this was rectified, but the fault had to appear once before it was found...

    Now, that manoeuvring of the flight could be the autopilot replaying bits and pieces of an old flight track or messed up flight plan. The erratic behaviour could be initiated by some fault combination, cable fire or electronics fizzling out. The failure that also cut the communication and possibility for pilot input flying the plane.


    You are not going with flying saucers?
    But that’s where the fun is.:eek:
     

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