Crashes in the News - Thread

Discussion in 'Rules and Regulations / Flight Safety / Better Pil' started by choppergirl, Jun 8, 2016.

Help Support HomeBuiltAirplanes Forum by donating:

  1. May 16, 2019 #2201

    BBerson

    BBerson

    BBerson

    Well-Known Member HBA Supporter

    Joined:
    Dec 16, 2007
    Messages:
    11,420
    Likes Received:
    2,096
    Location:
    Port Townsend WA
    What is the definition of "formation" ?
    They are usually at least 1/2 mile or mile apart. Perhaps called a "Flight of three"?
    Or how close is a "mass arrival" at Oshkosh?
     
    Last edited: May 16, 2019
  2. May 17, 2019 #2202

    Marc Zeitlin

    Marc Zeitlin

    Marc Zeitlin

    Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 11, 2015
    Messages:
    424
    Likes Received:
    571
    Location:
    Tehachapi, CA
    A fascinating interpretation. It's horrible that mid-air collisions never happened before GPS was invented, or ADS-B traffic displays became available, but now - crap - you can't swing a dead cat without running into another mid-air collision caused by these two miserable excuses for technology.

    This is like arguing that cars are less safe than they were in 1950 (clearly untrue, when one examines the data) because we've got anti-lock brakes, seat belts and built-in crash protection in the frame, because folks don't have to pay as much attention to not skidding or not getting T-boned.

    Sure - there are ALWAYS unintended consequences of new things and there are always CONs to a new thing that has PROs. But if you're going to make ridiculous claims, at least make up some data to back them up. It's fairly obvious from the data that both cars and aircraft are getting safer over time, not less safe, and since human beings aren't evolving to be better at either driving or flying, it's the technology (and processes) that are achieving that end. If you look here:


    you can see a list of only the NOTABLE mid-air collisions. I'd venture a guess (and place a bet) that given the dates that most of them occurred on and which planes were involved, very close to ZERO of those collisions were CAUSED by GPS or ADS-B usage.

    Sheesh. Speculating about things that we have almost zero information about is a waste of time at best - speculating about things that have data showing exactly the opposite of what you speculate is less than useless.
     
    Himat and BJC like this.
  3. May 17, 2019 #2203

    jedi

    jedi

    jedi

    Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2009
    Messages:
    1,686
    Likes Received:
    376
    Location:
    Sahuarita Arizona, Renton Washington, USA
    Because they did not have it.

    I think a contributing factor, based on news reports, Is that they were both returning on the last of the "contract flights" to make the ships departure time and that issue put pressure on the pilots to make the schedule time and created a high traffic concentration at the arrival time.

    As noted visibility out the window of both the Beaver and Otter is less than desired.
     
    Last edited: May 17, 2019
  4. May 17, 2019 #2204
  5. May 17, 2019 #2205

    Turd Ferguson

    Turd Ferguson

    Turd Ferguson

    Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2008
    Messages:
    4,555
    Likes Received:
    1,554
    Location:
    Upper midwest in a house
    It was good weather and ultimately the NTSB report will say "pilot's failed to see and avoid"
     
  6. May 17, 2019 #2206

    Daleandee

    Daleandee

    Daleandee

    Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2015
    Messages:
    824
    Likes Received:
    496
    Location:
    SC
    Not to get too far off topic but ADS-B works extremely well IMHO for as little as I've seen it work. In one instance my hangar mate was in the pattern for landing as I watched from the stop/hold line. Soon enough I got a warning from his aircraft on my screen of him about a mile to my left at 500'.

    But ADS-B is not a perfect solution as it has a few quirks that even when a plane is equipped and it's being used could cause confusion. One of the more serious is a phenomenon known as "ghosting". Reading this thread from an iFly discussion page explains it pretty well for any not familiar with this ...

    https://www.iflygps.com/Support/Forum/forumid/14/threadid/26616/scope/posts

    Seems much of this has been, or is being, resolved but there are times when targets appear that are not really there. Heads up & eyes outside!

    Dale
    N319WF
     
  7. May 17, 2019 #2207

    D Hillberg

    D Hillberg

    D Hillberg

    Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2010
    Messages:
    1,138
    Likes Received:
    415
    Location:
    very low low low earth orbit

    Just as deadly as the 45 at Corona where a twin center punched a single waiting for the runway to open, Arnstrong never saw it coming, Like the Piper & a Cessna at the approach end...GPS and other "modern" bling bling keep you occupied until the impact. ADS-B not out with most the rest, Frank Robinson had an Idea "Eyes out not in" the 'smarter' machines get the dumber the monkeys get. They still land on the wrong runways they still let the auto pilot nose em into the hard edges of the sky. I bet you're the type of monkey who sets the cruise control and go to the back of your motorhome to fix a samich.
     
    Charles Snyder likes this.
  8. May 17, 2019 #2208

    Marc Zeitlin

    Marc Zeitlin

    Marc Zeitlin

    Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 11, 2015
    Messages:
    424
    Likes Received:
    571
    Location:
    Tehachapi, CA
    I swear to Cthulhu that I'd give someone $5 if they could translate whatever it is you believe you're saying into English, or pidgin English, or something akin to a human language.

    Let's actually take a look at some data. The 1997 Nall Report (data from 1996 and prior) indicates that the fatal accident rate for GA aircraft was between 1.8 and 1.5 per 100,000 hours in the 1994 - 1996 timeframe, while the overall accident rate was about 9.1 - 8.1 per 100,000 hours in the same time period. The 27th Nall report, for 2015, indicates that the overall accident rate had declined to 5.22 - 4.87 per 100,000 hours in the time period 2013 - 2015, while the fatal accident rate had declined to 0.91 - 0.92 per 100,000 hours in the same time period.

    So in the time period in which GPS became available and then ubiquitous, both the overall and fatal accident rates declined by almost 50%. Causal? I have no clue - could just be a correlation, for sure - hell, for all I know, the declining accident rate led people to want GPS's. Airplanes are better, training is better, procedures are better - those are most probably the main contributors to lower accident rates. But also for sure, we can say that putting a GPS into every **** airplane out there most certainly did not make things LESS safe, which is what you're espousing, along with the fact that it makes poorer pilots, which obviously ALSO is not correct, given the declining accident rates.

    ADS-B is far newer, so there are only a few years of generalized data to examine, but using the data from 2006 - 2015 in the 27th Nall report, we can see a very slight decline in both accident rates in that 10 year time period. Again, no INCREASE in accidents in the time period that ADS-B is/was becoming more prevalent.

    Your anecdotes, even should they have any validity whatsoever to you, are not generalizable to GA as a whole and their point is contraindicated by the facts.

    No, I'm the type of monkey that gives a crap whether what I'm saying is supported by reality (you know - those "fact" things that are quickly going out of style these days), or whether I'm just pulling nonsense out of my nether regions.

    I believe that WHILE I'm looking out the window, trying not to hit things (mountains, birds, airplanes, UFO's) I ALSO can glance at a screen every once in a while to give me an idea about where I can be concentrating some of my searching for aircraft. I also listen to ATC while on FF to get traffic reports and look for those aircraft as well. About 1/2 the time, I can find them on the ADS-B traffic screen, and can't find them in the sky with my eyeballs. When flying in the LA basin, I find that even with multiple sets of eyeballs in the plane, we can find 1/3 - 1/2 of the traffic that's called out to us or shows up on the screen. I have had many other pilots tell me exactly the same thing regarding finding called or screen traffic.

    What does that tell you about relying on eyeballs ALONE for your traffic avoidance?
     
    Himat likes this.
  9. May 17, 2019 #2209

    bmcj

    bmcj

    bmcj

    Well-Known Member HBA Supporter

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2007
    Messages:
    12,563
    Likes Received:
    4,587
    Location:
    Fresno, California
    I’ve encountered ghosting myself when we were frantically looking for a target that was flying just ahead of us at an uncomfortably close distance. It turned out to be a ghost of ourself, presumably a timing difference between the primary/transponder radar return and the Stratus/iPad ADSB-in feed.

    We became suspicious when we turned and The conflicting target matched us turn-for-turn.
     
  10. May 17, 2019 #2210

    BJC

    BJC

    BJC

    Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 7, 2013
    Messages:
    8,899
    Likes Received:
    5,747
    Location:
    97FL, Florida, USA
    Apparently, UFO cloning systems can, at times, be detected as an ADS-B transmission. Not a collision concern - UFO’s are extremely agile in flight - but you might be at risk of abduction, followed by an inability to post a coherent rant against new technology on HBA.


    BJC
     
    bmcj and MadRocketScientist like this.
  11. May 17, 2019 #2211

    gtae07

    gtae07

    gtae07

    Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 13, 2012
    Messages:
    1,731
    Likes Received:
    1,031
    Location:
    Georgia
    It was generally accepted years ago that GPS in all its flavors, from uncertified handhelds up to IFR approach units and glass cockpits with synvis, has been responsible for a marked decline in CFIT accidents. The CFIT accident rate from 2002 till 2012 alone dropped by more than half. From the GAJSC report on LoC:
    Granted, CFIT is not typically a day VFR type of issue. But the point is that GPS is directly attributed to a noticeable safety improvement in that particular area.

    It's also been noted anecdotally that "pilots just don't get lost any more". To wit:
    This source also notes that weather-related accidents are on a decline and primarily attributes that to the availability of in-cockpit visual weather displays.
    In the end, though,


    My experience on cross-countries and local flights around Atlanta is largely the same. Thanks to haze and sun glare I generally don't see other traffic enroute that the ADS-B hasn't already picked up. Only in the vicinity of the pattern do I frequently see traffic that ADS-B does not. Most peoples' eyes stink at this; eagle eyes like Chuck Yeager are the exception.
     
  12. May 17, 2019 #2212

    Marc Zeitlin

    Marc Zeitlin

    Marc Zeitlin

    Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 11, 2015
    Messages:
    424
    Likes Received:
    571
    Location:
    Tehachapi, CA
    Hah. Yeah. Not long after I started flying powered planes in 1981 or so, I took a cross-country trip from MA to ME for reasons I cannot possibly recall. For anyone that ever played Zork, and remembers "you are in a maze of tiny passages, all alike", Maine is like that, but with lakes and trees. There are approximately 12 zillion lakes and 12 zillion^18 trees and they all look exactly the same. At one point, I had no freaking clue where I was within 10 - 20 miles, even with 40 mile visibility. But I knew that I was west of I-95, so I headed east until I saw the highway, then turned north until I found a city I could recognize. That matched up with the VOR indications, so I was able to find myself.

    But yeah - now, I always know where I am within 3 - 30 ft., the precision of which is obviously of no use whatsoever unless I'm on an approach.
     
  13. May 17, 2019 #2213

    Dana

    Dana

    Dana

    Moderator

    Joined:
    Apr 4, 2007
    Messages:
    8,457
    Likes Received:
    2,855
    Location:
    CT, USA
    Mod note: Disagree all you want, but keep the insults to yourself. I deleted a couple of unpleasant posts.
     
  14. May 17, 2019 #2214

    bmcj

    bmcj

    bmcj

    Well-Known Member HBA Supporter

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2007
    Messages:
    12,563
    Likes Received:
    4,587
    Location:
    Fresno, California
    In my younger days, I used to navigate from the sectional with GPS precision.

    Oh, wait, that’s not entirely true... I was once off course by twenty feet on a cross country in a Luscombe from California to Texas, but that was across the badlands of New Mexico where everything looked alike.

    :rolleyes:
     
  15. May 17, 2019 #2215

    mcrae0104

    mcrae0104

    mcrae0104

    Armchair Mafia Conspirator HBA Supporter

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 2009
    Messages:
    2,868
    Likes Received:
    1,883
    Location:
    BDU, BJC
    Off by twenty feet on the sectional? What is that, about the width of New Mexico?
     
    bmcj likes this.
  16. May 17, 2019 #2216

    radfordc

    radfordc

    radfordc

    Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2008
    Messages:
    1,151
    Likes Received:
    435
    Even with a GPS on a cross country flight I've been within 6 miles of my destination airport and still didn't have it located visually for sure. I always said that if my GPS failed on a flight I would try to find the nearest airport and go buy another one. Flying from Detroit to Kansas City somewhere in eastern Missouri my GPS quit receiving a signal. I fired up the backup GPS and it wouldn't acquire a signal either. The plan was to continue flying toward the setting sun until I saw the Missouri River and take a left...and it was working, too. After a half hour or so the GPS's came back online.
     
  17. May 17, 2019 #2217

    D Hillberg

    D Hillberg

    D Hillberg

    Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2010
    Messages:
    1,138
    Likes Received:
    415
    Location:
    very low low low earth orbit
    Still waiting for my samich
     
    bmcj likes this.
  18. May 17, 2019 #2218

    bmcj

    bmcj

    bmcj

    Well-Known Member HBA Supporter

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2007
    Messages:
    12,563
    Likes Received:
    4,587
    Location:
    Fresno, California
    Haven’t you heard? They outlawed GPS signals in Missouri.
     
    mcrae0104 likes this.
  19. May 18, 2019 #2219

    Wanttaja

    Wanttaja

    Wanttaja

    Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2013
    Messages:
    1,128
    Likes Received:
    1,310
    Location:
    Seattle, WA
    If you're off by twenty feet on the sectional, that puts you about three feet beyond your wingtip.....

    Ron Wanttaja
     
    bmcj and mcrae0104 like this.
  20. May 18, 2019 #2220

    Wanttaja

    Wanttaja

    Wanttaja

    Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2013
    Messages:
    1,128
    Likes Received:
    1,310
    Location:
    Seattle, WA
    If an astrolabe, octant, and lodestone were good enough for [insert deity name here], it's good enough for you.

    Ron Wanttaja
     
    bmcj likes this.

Share This Page

arrow_white