Boeing -- Global Demand for Pilots, Mechanics

[dcstrng]

Based on “surging aviation demand in emerging markets”, Boeing predicts that airline fleet expansion around the world will drive what it calls an “exponential increase” in demand for pilots and mechanics over the next 20 years. In its Pilot and Technician Outlook just released this week, Boeing predicts a record need for an additional 533,000 airline pilots and 584,000 maintenance technicians to meet global aviation requirements.

The greatest demand for pilots and mechanics continues to be in the Asia Pacific region, with China in the lead. But other areas of the world are also experiencing large fleet expansions, including the Middle East. By region, the predicted 20 year demand for new pilots is: Asia Pacific 216,000, Europe 94,000, North America 88,000, the Middle East 55,000, Latin America 45,000, the Commonwealth of Independent States [former Soviet Union countries] 18,000 and Africa 17,000.

See: http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngoglia/2014/08/03/boeing-predicts-exponential-increase-in-global-demand-for-pilots-mechanics/

 

[JamesG]

Of course a manufacture of aeroplanes would say that.

 

[TFF]

Jobs are there; no one is hiring. New world economics.

 

[JamesG]

Which means Boeing, the airlines, et. al. will plow the billions and billions that they could pay to attract and keep pilots and mechanics, into automated/teleoperated flight, and "smart" components and structures.

I'm actually looking forward to our robot overlords. Hopefully the smug arrogant corp. executives will be first in line to the soilent green facilities.

 

[autoreply]

Jobs are there; no one is hiring. New world economics.

Just like what happened in the nautical world, lower wages, incompetent personel etc.

Note that Boeing didn't say that THEY would see that growth. I would be curious for the future, with both Boeing and Airbus being big, political and government-supported organisations, there might be space for more than just Embraer.

 

[cheapracer]

If only you guys could see the Cessna 172's taking off every 3 to 4 minutes training new Chinese Pilots like I do daily. I drive past the end of the runway of the National Flight Training University morning and night, and I mean 20 meters away.

There has been a dramatic rise in twin engined circuits recently too, Piper PA44 Seminoles.

Civil Aviation Flight University of China - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][SIZE=+1]WELCOME TO PILOT TRAINING[/SIZE][/FONT]

primary trainer: 147 hours in aircraft, 43 hours in simulator; ​ midium trainer: 25 hours in aircraft, 5 hours in simulator; ​ advanced trainer: 35 hours in aircraft, 5 hours in simulator. Total price: 655 thousand yuan(about $80,000 ) in four year. ​

 

[pwood66889]

Bosh. Been reading `bout this for years. I personally see the pilots of the future - walking out to the UH-60 Blackhawks every evening. Don't get your hopes up, wannabes.
Percy in SE Bama

 

[davidb]

Just like what happened in the nautical world, lower wages, incompetent personel etc.

The world has plenty of people willing to work for peanuts and plenty of people willing to disregard safety for the lowest priced airline ticket.

The latest scheme is for a corporation to start an airline in their country (grabbing the cash flow of ticket sales), borrowing money from a different country (with lower interest rates) to fund aircraft purchases, registering the aircraft in a different country for the tax breaks and less restrictive regulations, crewing the aircraft with people from a country where they are willing to work for little money and where training standards are questionable, and maintaining the aircraft with third party companies that employ cheap/incompetent labor. Basically, they are shopping the world for the cheapest options needed to run an airline. One has to wonder who has a vested interest in safety and what country's government is regulating an overall level of safety in this latest scheme.

 

[JamesG]

I would be curious for the future, with both Boeing and Airbus being big, political and government-supported organisations, there might be space for more than just Embraer.

Only if its another government sponsored organization that can absorb the huge costs to entry (ie: China).

Bosh. Been reading `bout this for years. I personally see the pilots of the future - walking out to the UH-60 Blackhawks every evening.

A drop in the bucket. That's why you keep reading about it, the problem isn't going away. It is accelerating as all the Boomer pilots retire and overseas airline capacity/demand increases.

The world has plenty of people willing to work for peanuts and plenty of people willing to disregard safety for the lowest priced airline ticket.

A recipe for disaster.

The latest scheme is for a corporation to start an airline in their country (grabbing the cash flow of ticket sales), borrowing money from a different country (with lower interest rates) to fund aircraft purchases, registering the aircraft in a different country for the tax breaks and less restrictive regulations, crewing the aircraft with people from a country where they are willing to work for little money and where training standards are questionable, and maintaining the aircraft with third party companies that employ cheap/incompetent labor. Basically, they are shopping the world for the cheapest options needed to run an airline. One has to wonder who has a vested interest in safety and what country's government is regulating an overall level of safety in this latest scheme.

A new cycle of this is starting here in the US. All that Fed. monopoly money has induced a bunch of start-up airlines because a couple of wise guys were able to convince VCs they had a better answer than the old hands and is more likely just a way to get lots of "free" money.

 

[PTAirco]

I have a prediction: there will NEVER be a shortage of pilots. Nobody will ever offer training to become a pilot (like airlines used to do waaaay back.) There will always be pilots willing to get up to their neck into debt to get their training and then work as indentured servants for 30 years.

"Pilot shortage" , yeah right....

 

[davidb]

I have a prediction: there will NEVER be a shortage of pilots. Nobody will ever offer training to become a pilot (like airlines used to do waaaay back.) There will always be pilots willing to get up to their neck into debt to get their training and then work as indentured servants for 30 years.

"Pilot shortage" , yeah right....

If we single out the USA, I say there is a pilot shortage and it will get worse. Now that you need to qualify for an ATP before getting hired by a part 121 carrier, there are not enough ways to get there regardless. There's just not enough "fly for peanuts to build hours" opportunities nor enough people willing to fund their own training to that high hurdle.

Not to worry, the general US population seems fine with "global" airlines with "global" crews flying them around over US soil. They don't want the government taking away their opportunity for a cheap ticket. Regulating safety comes at a price. It costs a lot of money to produce a well trained and experienced pilot. I'm concerned the "globe" doesn't value safety. We have just recently seen an accident on US soil that was attributed to cultural and training issues of a less regulated Asian airline. If we apply US standards to the globe, the globe too will have a pilot shortage.

 

[mcrae0104]

Pilot shortage? Depends what you mean by that. If you mean, "There are not enough pilots in existence to fly the number of flights demanded by the market," then I doubt it.

Probably what many people mean is that there are not enough pilots willing to work for the low wage the market is willing to pay right now (specifically the regionals). I think a lot of this stems from people feeling that pilots ought to make more (I'm not saying they shouldn't, BTW). If they were paid what people feel they ought to make, then the ticket prices would go up and then we'd have people talking about a passenger shortage. The market sorts it out. Like many other lines of work (including some professions with similar levels of responsibility) it can take a long time before you make good money.

Right now it's good to be a passenger and maybe not as good to be a pilot. It's iffy at best to project what the market will be willing to pay in the future.

 

[bmcj]

Now that you need to qualify for an ATP before getting hired by a part 121 carrier, there are not enough ways to get there regardless. There's just not enough "fly for peanuts to build hours" opportunities nor enough people willing to fund their own training to that high hurdle.

Will this drive instruction prices lower, maybe even a price war, with pilots (instructors) trying to scrape out as many free flying hours as they can get for their logbooks? Granted, and unfortunate, because instruction cost is only a small part of getting a license (plane rental is the biggest cost driver in lessons) and instructors can barely eke out a living if that is all they do, but it might yield a slight reduction in the cost to get a PPL.

 

[davidb]

The situation right now in the US is the pilots of major airlines are retiring in large numbers. This was delayed by five years when the mandatory retirement age was changed from 60 to 65 but now it is again an issue. The majors are now hiring to fill those positions and there are plenty of current regional airline pilots to fill those positions. It's the regional airlines that are now seeing the shortage of qualified applicants--with the FAR change that has just gone into effect, a pilot has to have an ATP to get hired. There just isn't enough pilots with those qualifications currently waiting to get hired and it takes a lot of time and/or money to get there. The regionals not paying a living wage is part of the problem in that a lot of young motivated people aren't drawn to the profession. It's a fun job and plenty of people claim they would do it for free. Much fewer people are willing to put in the work/time required to qualify for that job.

What we are already seeing is smaller regional jets getting parked and replaced with bigger jets--less jets, less pilots needed but same number of people moved. This effectively means fewer flights/departure times to chose from as a passenger. That's good for reducing delays in and out of busy hubs too.

BTW, pilot wages represent a surprisingly small percentage of the total ticket price. Regional pilots' pay is a reflection of what the pilots are willing to accept, not an indication of what the airline ticket market will bear. Right now the market for qualified pilots is in favor of the pilots. It's the airlines with the lowest wages and the worst working conditions that aren't getting qualified applicants.

 

[JamesG]

I have a prediction: there will NEVER be a shortage of pilots. Nobody will ever offer training to become a pilot (like airlines used to do waaaay back.) There will always be pilots willing to get up to their neck into debt to get their training and then work as indentured servants for 30 years.

"Pilot shortage" , yeah right....

That's your perspective. As a pilot. But the number of people interested in aviation, even as just a job, is dwindling fast. From the Gen Xers on ward they were raised on computers, coddled by their parents, and told that they need to become lawyers or MBAs to be successful. To them an airline pilot is just a flying bus driver who's job is rapidly being made obsolete by those computers.

Right now the "feeders" of commercial pilots, the military and GA can't keep up with attrition. That is not going to get any better in the future as GA dies and the government is forced to cut the size of the military. For a while they will go international with legions of mass trained 3rd world flight crew, but it won't take too many more short landings before that is stopped. So pay and bennies will go up, a lot, to attract people with enough brain cells to rub together (probably paid flight training) which will increase prices, which will reduce demand, until a new equilibrium is reached. It will still favor the pilots, which is why the industry is going to go for bigger pax count airplanes (but not nessissarily bigger airplanes) and smaller (to none) aircrew.

 

[autoreply]

BTW, pilot wages represent a surprisingly small percentage of the total ticket price.

Is that so? I always though pilot wages amount to around 15-20% of the ticket price for an intercontinental one. Wages there are admittedly a lot higher.

For a while they will go international with legions of mass trained 3rd world flight crew, but it won't take too many more short landings before that is stopped. So pay and bennies will go up, a lot, to attract people with enough brain cells to rub together (probably paid flight training) which will increase prices, which will reduce demand, until a new equilibrium is reached. It will still favor the pilots, which is why the industry is going to go for bigger pax count airplanes (but not nessissarily bigger airplanes) and smaller (to none) aircrew.

We thought the same about shipping... didn't happen.

 

[TFF]

One thing that has changed is all the real old time big jet pilots captains got incentives for being on the front lines of "building the airline." In the late 70's early 80's, those guys were making $300K a year, with everything added up. Today and in today's money they might get $200K in the last years of their carrier. Yes I know Boo Hoo. Most of these guys got in it for the money. Easy money. They feel cheated not being able to get the old money. They like flying but they do it for the money. They might get paid $150+ an hour when they fly, but non flying pay, they get paid 50 cents an hour for about 60% of their work day.

 

[davidb]

Is that so? I always though pilot wages amount to around 15-20% of the ticket price for an intercontinental one. Wages there are admittedly a lot higher.

That percentage figure sounds more like the total cost for all the human resources. Pilot costs alone are probably closer to 1 to 2 percent. Each passenger is paying about $1 to $3 per flight hour to cover pilot wages. Fuel by far accounts for the biggest percentage of ticket cost. Fuel used to account for about 20-25% but now it is probably 35-40 %. Fuel efficient aircraft are what will keep ticket prices down. The ones built today are about 20% more fuel efficient than what was available 10 years ago. But, airlines operate on a very thin profit margin so they are not inclined to pay a penny more than they have to for pilots.

 

[JamesG]

We thought the same about shipping... didn't happen.

Uh... Not quite the same thing. Different economics.

 

[mcrae0104]

Is that so? I always though pilot wages amount to around 15-20% of the ticket price for an intercontinental one.

I know that when I fly SFO to HKG they have two complete flight crews on the 744. Course the pilot/passenger ratio may be a wash with that many souls back in steerage!