$10 gallon Avgas

Homebuilt Aircraft & Kit Plane Forum

Help Support Homebuilt Aircraft & Kit Plane Forum:

daveklingler

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 22, 2013
Messages
183
Location
Albuquerque
Somebody should tell Pipistrel. Either there have been recent tremendous improvements in battery technology or the the folks at Pipistrel are ignorant. Their literature from a few years ago claims their users can expect 300-700 cycles in actual aircraft use (before battery capacity is reduced by over 25%) At that rate and at the battery replacement price they charged, it worked out to $25-$58 per flight hour. Taking the midpoint, that was more expensive than the engine reserve AND hourly fuel for a Rotax IC engine (that would also allow the plane to actually fly under power for more than 45 minutes).
There have been tremendous improvements in battery technology, along with enormous investments in R&D. I suspect improvements in certified aircraft are slowed greatly by the need for certification, but this is a homebuilt aircraft forum. :)
 

SpruceForest

Well-Known Member
Joined
May 23, 2022
Messages
240
So the single biggest issue for things like battery transition, etc. will be capital for transition and new tech build-out. What is available will be expensive, and we may (actually will) end up having to choose between attractive long term projects (alternative power generation R&D; rolling out infrastructure) and the necessary task of keeping the lights on and helping blunt the rising tide of global chaos. First world problems, right?

The Golden Goose is nearing the end of productive egg-laying as our single largest generation simultaneously stops both consuming and providing a good chunk of our capital. Much of the economic turmoil over the last 35 years had one root cause - all that Boomer money looking for investment - any investment - that could produce some growth. S&L crisis? Boomers. Sub-prime crisis? Boomers. Our money and the fact that we were the last generation to put work before family (there were so many of us that we depressed wages for ourselves AND our kids and grandkids through 2016), so EVERYONE in our generation worked and in so doing created the capital bubble that helped create the environment within which this now past global golden age occurred.

But it could be worse.

To pick just one worse, Canada in the mid 2010's was one of the most capital-rich (per capita) places on the planet. By the end of this decade, they will become one of the most capital-poor in the advanced developed world as their Boomers age into retirement and start simultaneously drawing down government pensions and retirement accounts that shifted to stability investments starting in that 2015 timeframe. But unlike US Boomers, our Canadian neighbors pretty much forgot to have kids (less one exception as noted below), so at least through the passing of a good chunk of the Boomer generation, Canadian tax rates necessary to maintain that comprehensive social welfare system in Canada will likely see something like a 3X increase in average tax bite (numbers vary, but something like $6K per working citizen to more like $20K seems reasonable), with most of that falling on Gen X (a really small generation in the Canadian federation).

Alberta is the one province that saw Canadian Boomers stay in and get families started in preference to heading out to yet another hockey game. Alberta's birth rate is even today still a bit above replacement when the rest of Canada looks more like Europe, so that province possesses a much healthier Gen X/Y/Z demographic than the rest of the federation going into what will be interesting times. That means that the tax dollars that more populous provinces like Ontario generated through the demographic crunch will now HAVE to come out of Alberta. Problem solved, right? Not really. Between the Tar Sands and a disproportionate number of Gen X taxpayers, Alberta will be the crutch to help the rest of the federation through the collapse of the tax base and related crunches. But Alberta also possesses the largest, most electorally successful provincial separatist movement in the federation. And thanks to the concessions made to an earlier provincial flirtation with breaking up the band, that sort of thing is perfectly LEGAL in Canada, with a federal supreme court decision to support it. What happens when Albertan Gen X'ers stop 'appreciating' being the country's tax revenue piggy bank to be raided, and BC continues to block a Pacific Coast terminus for all that super heavy sour (which would still need to be mixed with the light/sweet stuff out of the SK portion of the Bakken) to flow to international markets? My guess is that they will continue to be polite (they are, after all, Canadian), but the odds are they might be thinking more about how to move their oil through the US without it flowing through SK, and maybe in the back of their minds whether the solution to ALL of their problems might just be a different sort of alliance with a proximate neighbor. Ouch if your lead singer and front dude heads out on a solo career, and even worse if he ends up in a super group while you are stuck playing county fairs and wedding gigs.

Anyway, that is just one of the reasons I see for some caution in assuming away tech problems because historically (which means during the extremely atypical global golden era of the last 40 years or so), we could depend on another tech to be rapidly developed and built out. I think that sort of thing will be a much bigger lift through the end of the 2030s than it has been for the last four decades, and we will not see those cheap capital markets again until things have shaken out and we see some degree of a new normal appear.
 
Last edited:
Joined
Nov 14, 2009
Messages
8,768
Location
Rocky Mountains
all that Boomer money looking for investment
I think you are using the word 'money' in a casual way?
In this case 'money' = work credits from productivity into savings via work credits = tangible transferable wealth?

What central banks and the stock market create is not money ........ but I'm sure you already know this.
We can only paper over a liquidity trap with currency or a finite amount of time.

edit:
Poor grammar on my part is acknowledged - but since it has already been quoted I'll leave the post as is. 😔
 
Last edited:

SpruceForest

Well-Known Member
Joined
May 23, 2022
Messages
240
I think you are using the word 'money' in a casual way?
In this case 'money' = work credits from productivity into savings via work credits = tangible transferable wealth?

What central banks and the stock market create is not money ........ but I'm sure you already know this.
We can only paper over a liquidity trap with currency or a finite amount of time.
Oh, I KNOW I'm using 'money' in a very casual fashion... but in this case, I was speaking of ALL Boomers, and all of the various financial instruments through which they (we) have distorted credit, capital, equities, and even commodities markets, so slang seemed appropriate.

Re: the post above: suffice it to say that Canada will be FINE... just the splatter from the industrial surge in the US and Mexico will provide major support through the beginning of the 2030's, and by then, adjustments will likely have been made to address the budget realities imposed by the Boomer's mass retirement.
 

Bigshu

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Joined
Jun 7, 2020
Messages
1,433
Location
KCMO, midwestern USA
Paid $3.68/gal to fill up today. Heading up to Oshkosh early Monday. I hope prices are similar along my route. My sons are both pretty certain their next cars will be hybrids. I have a Brother-in-law who has had a couple of hybrids and loves them.
 

SpruceForest

Well-Known Member
Joined
May 23, 2022
Messages
240
Saw somewhere that the Prius hybrids and the like by 2015 had reduced demand for oil in the US by about 1% on something under 2 million total at that point... I think the Prius share of sales was just under 100,000 that year (fuel cost was a major factor in sales... pretty much the model for energy efficient vehicles). Good example of tech that did not require a huge capital investment on the part of third parties or the government to move the needle. Yes - subsidies raised the price to the consumer by at least the subsidy amount, but it did incentivize early adopters, so let's hope we see more of that model and less of the supply side coercion.

The slip into global recession is helping to take some pressure off oil prices, but still $4.30 locally, with diesel still up over $5.50, 100LL at $5.65, and Jet A at (ouch!) $8.05 per gallon. Glad I'm not paying that $3K/hour tab anymore.
 

Vigilant1

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Joined
Jan 24, 2011
Messages
8,461
Location
US
Anecdotal only, but it seems that in my area folks aren't especially price sensitive. Two gas stations 200 yards apart and with prices 20 cents per gallon different are both are doing about the same amount of business.
It wasn't long ago that folks would line up to save a nickel per gallon, and it has never been easier to find the lowest local price.
 
Last edited:

Bigshu

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Joined
Jun 7, 2020
Messages
1,433
Location
KCMO, midwestern USA
Anecdotal only, but it seems that in my area folks aren't especially price sensitive. Two gas stations 200 yards apart and with prices 20 cents per gallon different are both are doing about the same amount of business.
It wasn't long ago that folks would line up to save a nickel per gallon, and it has never been easier to find the lowest local price.
In this market, we don't see that much spread. It's rare to see a penny difference in the branded stations. QT is the market price setter, but Costco and Sam's club are lower for members. The two big grocery chains offer gas discount programs that are very popular. But when you think about it, a few cents difference in price won't even pay for a cup of coffee if you only fill up once a week.
 

Bigshu

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Joined
Jun 7, 2020
Messages
1,433
Location
KCMO, midwestern USA
Did everybody see the Avweb article on GAMI getting approval from the FAA to use their 100UL fuel in all aviation piston engines?
 

Cardmarc

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 16, 2021
Messages
103
Did everybody see the Avweb article on GAMI getting approval from the FAA to use their 100UL fuel in all aviation piston engines?
Yes, I did but so far have not seen the AML of the expanded list of engines and airframes. Unleaded gas is much better for my engine, but it has to be 100 octane. AOPA & AVWEB both released the news. Now GAMI has to figure how to commercialize its formulation and distribution, however!
 

rv7charlie

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Joined
Nov 17, 2014
Messages
3,380
Location
Pocahontas MS
Think bigger picture, though. It's reasonable to expect a new product like this to be expensive; $1/gal doesn't really sound that bad, considering. But look long term. Costs will almost certainly come down as economies of scale kick in. And one of the reasons avgas costs significantly more than mogas is that it requires a completely separate handling path, from the time the lead goes in until it goes into a plane. Just removing the lead opens up distribution options that haven't existed since we went lead-free in cars. Engines are going to last longer, and require less maintenance. The guys that have to have 100 octane are probably going to save the equivalent of $1/gal in maintenance & overhaul costs alone.
 

Bigshu

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Joined
Jun 7, 2020
Messages
1,433
Location
KCMO, midwestern USA
100LL is almost $8/gal and there are different suppliers…..wonder what this will cost
At best, it will be a boutique fuel like 100LL, so price will be higher than auto gas. That said, since it's an unleaded fuel, it's handling in the distribution system is much less problematic. Fewer cross contamination concerns and more fungibility will make it less likely to command a premium price. There's also the chance that it will be a preferred fuel of high-performance cars that are maybe part time race vehicles. The ability to have higher octane without emissions concerns could lead to a broader market for the fuel than just aviation. More customers mean larger orders, larger orders make it more desirable to refiners. It might end up being a big enough niche to justify its own micro refinery, rather than depend on building a relationship with existing refiners. Volume is key to breaking into pipeline transportation, which is key to widespread availability and lower cost passed on to consumers.
 

Vigilant1

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Joined
Jan 24, 2011
Messages
8,461
Location
US
They've been concentrating (for a long time) specifically on a replacement for 100LL in aviation use. The evaporation/air quality/oxygenate legal requirements have been established largely for fuels burned by motor vehicles (cars and trucks), sometimes only those used on public roads.
Anybody know if these new aviation fuels meet the regulatory strictures in place for motor vehicle fuels?
Hopefully, they aren't hygroscopic, don't evaporate to a varnish, etc.
 
Last edited:

Bigshu

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Joined
Jun 7, 2020
Messages
1,433
Location
KCMO, midwestern USA
When asked previously, George B. of GAMI suggested to expect a roughly 90 cents, call it a buck, more per gallon.

Tim
Don't forget the added benefit of no lead sludge gumming up the engine internals. That's worth something if it can help more engines get to TBO and beyond. Should make overhauls less troublesome too.
 

Bigshu

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Joined
Jun 7, 2020
Messages
1,433
Location
KCMO, midwestern USA
They've been concentrating (for a long time) specifically on a replacement for 100LL in aviation use. The evaporation/air quality/oxygenate legal requirements have been established largely for fuels burned by motor vehicles (cars and trucks, sometimes only those on public roads.
Anybody know if these new aviation fuels meet the regulatory strictures in place for motor vehicle fuels?
Hopefully, they aren't hygroscopic, don't evaporate to a varnish, etc.
That's a great question. Those standards are well known, and it's not particularly expensive to test to the standards. Whether the tested product will be approved for road use is another question. The possibility that it will make financial sense to get it approved for road use is a carrot for the folks at GAMI.
 

Turd Ferguson

Well-Known Member
Joined
Mar 13, 2008
Messages
6,163
Location
Upper midwest in a house
“100LL is almost $8/gal and there are different suppliers…..wonder what this will cost”

Initial estimates are an additional ~$1.00 per gallon over 100LL based on oil being $40/barrel with the price increasing proportionally with higher oil prices.

The replacement fuel will require an STC. It’s not the industry sought after ‘drop in’ replacement.
 

TXFlyGuy

Well-Known Member
Joined
Apr 25, 2012
Messages
2,414
Location
Republic of Texas
“100LL is almost $8/gal and there are different suppliers…..wonder what this will cost”

Initial estimates are an additional ~$1.00 per gallon over 100LL based on oil being $40/barrel with the price increasing proportionally with higher oil prices.

The replacement fuel will require an STC. It’s not the industry sought after ‘drop in’ replacement.

LOL! $40/bbl oil? When was the last time that happened?
 

Cardmarc

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 16, 2021
Messages
103
100LL is almost $8/gal and there are different suppliers…..wonder what this will cost
You will probably save big time on decreased engine wear-no spark plug fouling anymore, cleaner valves, better oil possibilities w/o lead-like full synthetics.
 
Top