#### SpruceForest

##### Well-Known Member
Saw somewhere that the Prius hybrids and the like by 2015 had reduced demand for oil in the US by about 1% on something under 2 million total at that point... I think the Prius share of sales was just under 100,000 that year (fuel cost was a major factor in sales... pretty much the model for energy efficient vehicles). Good example of tech that did not require a huge capital investment on the part of third parties or the government to move the needle. Yes - subsidies raised the price to the consumer by at least the subsidy amount, but it did incentivize early adopters, so let's hope we see more of that model and less of the supply side coercion.

#### tspear

##### Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
100LL is almost $8/gal and there are different suppliers…..wonder what this will cost When asked previously, George B. of GAMI suggested to expect a roughly 90 cents, call it a buck, more per gallon. Tim #### rv7charlie ##### Well-Known Member Supporting Member Think bigger picture, though. It's reasonable to expect a new product like this to be expensive;$1/gal doesn't really sound that bad, considering. But look long term. Costs will almost certainly come down as economies of scale kick in. And one of the reasons avgas costs significantly more than mogas is that it requires a completely separate handling path, from the time the lead goes in until it goes into a plane. Just removing the lead opens up distribution options that haven't existed since we went lead-free in cars. Engines are going to last longer, and require less maintenance. The guys that have to have 100 octane are probably going to save the equivalent of $1/gal in maintenance & overhaul costs alone. #### Bigshu ##### Well-Known Member Supporting Member 100LL is almost$8/gal and there are different suppliers…..wonder what this will cost
At best, it will be a boutique fuel like 100LL, so price will be higher than auto gas. That said, since it's an unleaded fuel, it's handling in the distribution system is much less problematic. Fewer cross contamination concerns and more fungibility will make it less likely to command a premium price. There's also the chance that it will be a preferred fuel of high-performance cars that are maybe part time race vehicles. The ability to have higher octane without emissions concerns could lead to a broader market for the fuel than just aviation. More customers mean larger orders, larger orders make it more desirable to refiners. It might end up being a big enough niche to justify its own micro refinery, rather than depend on building a relationship with existing refiners. Volume is key to breaking into pipeline transportation, which is key to widespread availability and lower cost passed on to consumers.

#### Vigilant1

##### Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
They've been concentrating (for a long time) specifically on a replacement for 100LL in aviation use. The evaporation/air quality/oxygenate legal requirements have been established largely for fuels burned by motor vehicles (cars and trucks), sometimes only those used on public roads.
Anybody know if these new aviation fuels meet the regulatory strictures in place for motor vehicle fuels?
Hopefully, they aren't hygroscopic, don't evaporate to a varnish, etc.

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#### Bigshu

##### Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
When asked previously, George B. of GAMI suggested to expect a roughly 90 cents, call it a buck, more per gallon.

Tim
Don't forget the added benefit of no lead sludge gumming up the engine internals. That's worth something if it can help more engines get to TBO and beyond. Should make overhauls less troublesome too.

#### Bigshu

##### Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
They've been concentrating (for a long time) specifically on a replacement for 100LL in aviation use. The evaporation/air quality/oxygenate legal requirements have been established largely for fuels burned by motor vehicles (cars and trucks, sometimes only those on public roads.
Anybody know if these new aviation fuels meet the regulatory strictures in place for motor vehicle fuels?
Hopefully, they aren't hygroscopic, don't evaporate to a varnish, etc.
That's a great question. Those standards are well known, and it's not particularly expensive to test to the standards. Whether the tested product will be approved for road use is another question. The possibility that it will make financial sense to get it approved for road use is a carrot for the folks at GAMI.

#### Turd Ferguson

“100LL is almost $8/gal and there are different suppliers…..wonder what this will cost” Initial estimates are an additional ~$1.00 per gallon over 100LL based on oil being $40/barrel with the price increasing proportionally with higher oil prices. The replacement fuel will require an STC. It’s not the industry sought after ‘drop in’ replacement. #### TXFlyGuy ##### Well-Known Member “100LL is almost$8/gal and there are different suppliers…..wonder what this will cost”

Initial estimates are an additional ~$1.00 per gallon over 100LL based on oil being$40/barrel with the price increasing proportionally with higher oil prices.

The replacement fuel will require an STC. It’s not the industry sought after ‘drop in’ replacement.

LOL! $40/bbl oil? When was the last time that happened? #### Cardmarc ##### Well-Known Member 100LL is almost$8/gal and there are different suppliers…..wonder what this will cost
You will probably save big time on decreased engine wear-no spark plug fouling anymore, cleaner valves, better oil possibilities w/o lead-like full synthetics.