i worked in the FBO biz in the 1980’s GA spiral and fuel cost was a primary concern for many reasons, mostly it was primary driver to capture customers from competitors on the field offering same product. It comes down, of course, to supply and demand. AVGAS is a insignificant market overall to refineries and distributors so as demand decreases, so will their output…..and fuel biz is about quantity, so cost to make and distribute climbs with lower output and as they pass along the cost to FBO. So, it’s not that they will continue to make the same amount of AVGAS regardless of lower demand and excess supply will drive cost down….there is finite storage. … there is no strategic reserves for AVGAS anymore as there was in WW2. We saw this during Covid when no one was driving and there was no place to put oil so prices spiraled down.
as gas stations and FBOs fill their supply tanks, their cost goes up with each delivery. At my airport AVGAS went up again…. Now $8.97/gal, that’s about $1 more from just a few couple of weeks, as their last delivery of fuel cost them more. There is a small airport about a 20 min flight with self serve about $5.75/gal, but they haven't refilled for a while and likely to be about 6.50 after next delivery.
point is, few care about cost of AVGAS so there is little pressure or incentive to lower its cost for of what public and politicians perceive as rich aircraft owners that look like the guy on the monopoly game. So, as the cost goes up, quantity sold and produced decreases, resulting in a decreased supply and shrinking market, which self induces higher cost until suppliers conclude there is more money to be made elsewhere With their resources.
If distributors drop out of the market, that would be real bad. remember, many of the avgas suppliers have been under considerable pressure to stop making the leaded concoction for decades, including being sued. states like CA have been fighting to outlaw it since the 1980s and only failed cause there wasn’t an alternative….. but now there is an alternative fuel regardless of its cost. Eventually, if demand continues to drop, so will their interest in making it regardless it they are getting $12/gal for it. …there’s a point where it doesn’t make fiscal sense Quantity wise regardless of cost.
my buddy has a Tesla and couldn’t care less about cost of gas. Point being, few care about cost or supply of AVGAS. I fly all over the world and often inquire about cost of AVGAS….. besides some oil producing counties that subsidize, we have always enjoyed cheap AVGAS. Europe seems to have always been about 3X our cost, and ASIA even more. I expect bean counters in the AVGAS segment are using historical foreign cost to determine their price elasticity models, and thus expect $8-10 per gallon AVGAS or alternative will become the norm even after oil cost decreases.
for me, I don’t really care about AVGAS cost as I burn the cheapest car gas (85 octane ethanol) and pump it from my SUV directly to my c172 wing tanks. ..even get off highway tax rebate! right now, we are modifying software that shuts the cylinders down when not needed, such as taxi and descent. We eliminated the engine run up, unless leaded AVGAS is used, which actually made a considerable consumption decrease over time. During descent with engine off and windmilling prop, we are now able to power the alternator enough to maintain normal loads on electrical system and charge batteries….. so we now stay high and plan on a Vg extended descent to landing which also helps in the bottom line. All of this seeming insignificant savings really adds up, especially now with even car gas close to $5/gal, not to mention it’s why there is experimental aircraft category to begin with…to experiment.
we had a guy do 20 hrs of commercial pilot flight training and FAA check ride in our exp c172. The total cost of the 20 hrs aircraft time was less than the cost of the examiners fee. A high school student is now training for her private pilot in it and expects to take checkride soon. The total cost for the 60 ish aircraft hours will be less than $1600, compared to 3X that with original c172 engine. Point being, these seeming insignificant savings can really add up when fuel cost increases so significantly.
as far as hybrid, there is significant challenges in developing software to make a car engine work in aircraft mission and add part 33 type redundancies. But, we figured it out with the V8 and have some talented engineers again looking at is as a challenge. Not sure what engine we will use yet. We will likely buy a couple of different engines from a junk yard and narrow it down from there. FAA has basically shut our further development down for over 2 years even as an experimental project….. so can’t attach anything new to a plane for now. Seems when you figure a way to eliminate leaded fuel, lower cost by more than 50% all while increasing performance in effort to reignite GA, FAA will figure a way to shut even experimental projects down unless you are either lycoming or Continental. But will post some photos of hybrid Frankenstein when available on
www.corsairV8.com if anyone is interested.
I would suggest avoiding engines not able to burn MOGAS or not eligible for MOGAS STC. Car gas will always be available everywhere and relatively cheap.
