$10 gallon Avgas

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mikoman

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here in Tennessee i have a diesel car and it's running cheapest $5.39 but most stations $5.59, still with 16 gallon tank it's $85 plus to fill. not sure of avgas price. I will be at the airport Thursday for CAP meeting and will check
PS $4.59 for regular here.
 

SpruceForest

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Unlike production wells in most of the rest of the world, to include offshore facilities, most of Russia's oil and gas production originates in places where - while you might not freeze your nose off on a mid-summer's day - temperatures keep the ground a few feet down frozen year-round. Remember that all gas wells produce some oil or at least condensate, while all oil wells produce some gas, so while natural gas under pressure will not freeze at temperatures seen in the well casing of a quiescent sub-arctic or arctic well, oil and condensate become a semi-solid plug of frozen sludge that must be physical extracted from well bores and collection/transport pipelines. Same for the pipelines that move oil from the wellhead to pumping stations and on to market or refinery, which are warmed both by heat of compression at the pumping stations for gas and friction plus some added heating if needed for oil.

Sure...you could shut the well down and devise some sort of heating system to keep the frozen plug of oil or condensate from forming in the bore and wellhead, but you'd have to heat everything from the collection lines to the pipeline for the length of it subject to freezing, and Russia is and likely will continue to be a miserably cold place where nearly 260,000 kilometers of pipeline for oil, oil product, gas, and LNG exist, with a lot of that in very cold areas.

In the mid-1980's, oil prices cratered and Russia - with their temporary storage facilities full and no customers for their oil at close to the cost of production - shuttered much of their oil and gas product. It took nearly 30 years of heavy international capital investment and patient effort to re-drill those wells and rebuild pipelines and related facilities. All this required thousands of western exploration, production, and transport SMEs. Lots of millionaire roughnecks, tool pushers, mud engineers, and geologists made in Texas/Louisiana/Oklahoma/SD/ND in the mid-1990's onward by spending a few years in the Russian icebox.

While the last thing Russia wants to do is shut off that petrodollar spigot, as demand falls and shifts in the geopolitical landscape occur, they may have - just as in the 1980's - no real choice in the matter, and in a globalized economy, that deficit will hurt nearly everyone. Further, sufficient capital to restore Russia's oil and gas industry after a wide-spread shutdown does not appear to be in the cards... or at least not without the Russians accepting some sort of client state arrangement with another major power (highly unlikely in my estimate).
 
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Turd Ferguson

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With an approved replacement for 100LL, even if the STC list is still a short list, how long can the EPA be kept from banning leaded aviation fuel?
Looks like the lead contamination claims are overblown (at least in this study):

The article contains an interesting statement: The county’s airports now only sell unleaded fuel. However, many airplanes can only run on leaded, which has led to pilots refueling at surrounding Bay Area airports before landing at Reid-Hillview or San Martin.

How many planes in that county have an Mogas STC? It must be the highest concentration in the country.
 

TXFlyGuy

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Looks like the lead contamination claims are overblown (at least in this study):

The article contains an interesting statement: The county’s airports now only sell unleaded fuel. However, many airplanes can only run on leaded, which has led to pilots refueling at surrounding Bay Area airports before landing at Reid-Hillview or San Martin.

How many planes in that county have an Mogas STC? It must be the highest concentration in the country.

The actual facts do not matter. This is agenda driven.

Did I not read recently that another decade will pass before there is an approved unleaded Avgas?
 

TXFlyGuy

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Unlike production wells in most of the rest of the world, to include offshore facilities, most of Russia's oil and gas production originates in places where - while you might not freeze your nose off on a mid-summer's day - temperatures keep the ground frozen year-round. Remember that all gas wells produce some oil or at least condensate, while all oil wells produce some gas, so while natural gas under pressure will not freeze at temperatures seen in the well casing of a quiescent sub-arctic or arctic well, oil and condensate become a semi-solid plug of frozen sludge that must be physical extracted from well bores and collection/transport pipelines. Same for the pipelines that move oil from the wellhead to pumping stations an on to market, which are warmed both by heat of compression at the pumping stations for gas and friction plus some added heating if needed for oil.

Sure...you could shut the well down and devise some sort of heating system to keep the frozen plug of oil or condensate from forming in the bore and wellhead, but you'd have to heat everything from the collection lines to the pipeline for the length of it subject to freezing, and Russia is and likely will continue to be a miserably cold place where nearly 260,000 kilometers of pipeline for oil, oil product, gas, and LNG exist, with a lot of that in very cold areas.

In the mid-1980's, oil prices cratered and Russia - with their temporary storage facilities full and no customers for their oil at close to the cost of production - shuttered much of their oil and gas product. It took nearly 30 years of heavy international capital investment and patient effort to re-drill those wells and rebuild pipelines and related facilities. All this required thousands of western exploration, production, and transport SMEs. Lots of millionaire roughnecks, tool pushers, mud engineers, and geologists made in Texas/Louisiana/Oklahoma/SD/ND in the mid-1990's onward by spending a few years in the Russian icebox.

While the last thing Russia wants to do is shut off that petrodollar spigot, as demand falls and shifts in the geopolitical landscape occur, they may have - just as in the 1980's - no real choice in the matter, and in a globalized economy, that deficit will hurt nearly everyone. Further, sufficient capital to restore Russia's oil and gas industry after a wide-spread shutdown does not appear to be in the cards... or at least not without the Russians accepting some sort of client state arrangement with another major power (highly unlikely in my estimate).

I flew with a flight attendant one time, who was retired from the Petro-Chemical industry. He happened to be an engineer who was extremely experienced in oil wells, drilling, etc.

He explained to me that a well that was previously capped, and shut down, could be restarted again. Steam injection is a newer technology, and has been used extensively to breathe new life into formerly dead wells.
 

rv7charlie

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TX,

It cost me 106 American dollars to fill my truck up when this gas debacle began. Two years ago it cost me 45. I drive a GMC Sierra four door Z-71 and she has never been a gas sipper. I wonder why the prices are so much higher just two years later? LOFL
Because gas prices were massively depressed two years ago due to the fact that with Covid restrictions happening all over the world, few could use vehicles and all the other uses for petroleum decreased as well. The price of crude back then was literally a negative number for a while in the Middle East, because the producers (the wells) couldn't slow production quickly enough and they had no place to store the crude. They were paying distributors to take the oil. Drillers stopped drilling and the whole production pipeline (pardon the pun) ground almost to a halt. Then with Covid improving, demand shot back up, but there's a lot of inertia in heavy industries like oil. Prices quickly returned to pre-pandemic levels (which due to our short-attention-span-theater memories, no one remembers), and then went higher, because production hadn't ramped back up. And hey, why should they, if they can keep prices artificially high without any production costs? Then the Russian invasion of Ukraine happened, which is destroying world wide petroleum distribution (Russian production) and everyone, including us, pays more. US producers are doing what they do; selling to the highest bidder, with a little (quite a bit) of opportunistic price gouging thrown in the mix.
 

TXFlyGuy

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The above is true, as far as it goes.
Oil prices shot up immediately with the scuttling of the Keystone Pipeline. This was long before the events in Ukraine.
At least we have someone who is making good on his campaign promises!

On the campaign trail, Biden vowed to cancel the Keystone XL cross-border permit should he win the presidency—and on his first day in office, he made good on that promise. The revoked permit became the final nail in the pipeline’s coffin.
 
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And hey, why should they,

Because some of those producers were forced into bankruptcy when the price of oil went negative. Those resources are likely still unavailable due to being tied up by the courts. Those that haven't rusted away during storage will eventually return to service. As noted in this, or another thread?, there has also been a loss of corporate knowledge that will take time to regenerate. Those with the most experience and knowledge are the first ones to permanently retire - in any industry that is shrinking.

edit:
A couple of weeks ago on a drive to the airport (for a reason completely unrelated to aviation). I was a passenger so I had plenty of time to observe. This drive goes through the heart of the local oil field/industrial area of the county. What I observed was a lot of buildings and yards empty - with no for sale/lease signs. The overall industry has expanded since the 80's. Along with the new buildings being empty many of the well established companies buildings, that didn't shut down the last time were also closed. Those business that remain open, of all types, not just oil field, show very noticeable signs of neglect, from what I suspect is simply having to put limited resources into areas other than paint and grounds maintenance.

It is going to be a few years before things get back to 'normal' - even with a pro fossil fuels bureaucracy in place.
 
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rv7charlie

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Keystone pipeline oil was never going to stay in the US; it's from Canadian tar sands and it's so ecologically 'dirty' that it would never have been used in the US. Canadians wanted a cheap path to the Gulf Coast. Their plan-B is to pipe it to the west coast of Canada. The volume would have been relatively insignificant compared to overall US production, anyway.

Additionally, over its long and varied history the direction of potential flow through it has actually reversed a couple of times. When fracking became a thing, we were producing so much oil here that the oil companies were considering exporting oil to Canada through it.

As to timing, it's important to remember that correlation is not the same thing as causation. Just because something else happens at the same time, doesn't mean that it caused the other thing.
 

N804RV

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I'm no authority on the valve seat issue (I know a bit more about lead buildup in the guides), but if the valve seat thing is truly such an ever-present danger to the point of causing failures 'in as little as 30 hours' I do wonder how EAA & Peterson managed to get their auto fuel STCs past FAA scrutiny. I know that I ran a *lot* of 87 octane mogas through a '46 Luscombe with a Continental 65, while it was teaching me to fly. And I've run a steady diet of E-free 93 mogas in my Lycs over the past 20+ years. Even if it was a problem in the distant past, I wonder if it's a 'thing' with cylinders that were manufactured or overhauled within the last 30 years or so. Peterson seems to list every engine they're concerned about as having an STC available for it. Strangely, no injected Lycs are listed, even though they should have fewer vapor lock issues than the carb engines.

Shell, of course, has a vested interest in keeping the volume of 100LL up.

The biggest consumers of 100LL are larger piston business class a/c; cabin twins, etc. Maybe 20% of the fleet, and they burn 80+% of the 100LL, and they are the ones (high compression, or turbo'd & high altitude) that can't burn any of the current no-lead alternatives.

Having said all that, if the whole piston a/c fleet stopped flying tomorrow, the drop in overall pollution levels wouldn't even move the needle.

I gotta believe what you're saying is true. There are a lot of Lycomings (carbureted and fuel injected) flying in light GA aircraft on non-ethanol MOGAS.

Which is why it slays me every time I hear the resident expert at my field warning my friends, that have asked my about running MOGAS, that they're putting their engines at risk.

I suggested to a couple of friends that were nervous about running MOGAS, that with current prices they could save ~$40 per tank by just running a 50-50 blend of 100LL and 92 octane 0e MOGAS in the Lyc powered RVs. They could try that, and just see how they run before decided to run 100% MOGAS. You'd have thought I told them to run some kind of witches brew.
 

SpruceForest

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I flew with a flight attendant one time, who was retired from the Petro-Chemical industry. He happened to be an engineer who was extremely experienced in oil wells, drilling, etc.

He explained to me that a well that was previously capped, and shut down, could be restarted again. Steam injection is a newer technology, and has been used extensively to breathe new life into formerly dead wells.

Steam injection works for heavy crude that is very viscous at underground temps, and is nothing new...it's been around since the late 50's/early '60's. But any of the steam techniques require steam in the reservoir... which is not going to be the Russian's problem. Thawing a few hundred or even thousand feet (directional drilling...when the target formation is a half a mile to the north under a nuke site) of 18" diameter bore and the upper concrete casing gets to be a prohibitive energy budget (ROT from the one geology class I took was 1 deg C per hundred feet of vertical depth, so -20 deg C average surface temp means something like a plug 1500'-2000' long...and that assumes that directional drilling does not add a half mile of horizontal travel above the freeze depth.

In the early 1990's as investment began to flow into the former USSR, the Russians were faced with dealing with shut down wells , often of 2-4km depth... 100 tons of semi-frozen sludge in the bore per well, the frozen well head itself, and tens of thousands of miles of hard-frozen pipeline. Steam might help, but the conventional wisdom was the energy required to unfreeze down to the point where subsurface pressure could begin moving crude upward was significantly more that that required to sink a new well into the same formation. With pipelines, the problem as quite a bit worse, in that you'd have had to built a string of new powerplants on the tundra solely for power to thaw the lines.

Not that there may not be a feasible adjustment to the steam method which would work, but the energy budget seems like a formidable obstacle to overcome.
 

Dana

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Ethanol in gasoline is the worst thing that can happen for aviation fuel. I would think accidents would increase as carburetors would be gumming up left and right
Well, sure. But that was kinda my point; airports in CT don't sell mogas because the distributor isn't allowed to sell it to them without ethanol.

Avgas isn't affected.
 

SpruceForest

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Keystone pipeline oil was never going to stay in the US; it's from Canadian tar sands and it's so ecologically 'dirty' that it would never have been used in the US. Canadians wanted a cheap path to the Gulf Coast. Their plan-B is to pipe it to the west coast of Canada. The volume would have been relatively insignificant compared to overall US production, anyway.

Additionally, over its long and varied history the direction of potential flow through it has actually reversed a couple of times. When fracking became a thing, we were producing so much oil here that the oil companies were considering exporting oil to Canada through it.

As to timing, it's important to remember that correlation is not the same thing as causation. Just because something else happens at the same time, doesn't mean that it caused the other thing.
OK...where to start with what appear to be direct pulls from the NRDC talking points.

- There was 2.4 MILLION km of gas, oil, and refined product pipeline in the US as of 2017... suggesting that the KeystoneXL would be relatively insignificant in terms of overall volume of crude carried is factually accurate but very misleading in terms of Keystone XL impacts (see below).

- By both definition and casual inspection (Google is your friend), NO pipeline carries a significant volume of the overall Canadian or US production... this is by design, and one of the reasons why pipeline movement of oil and gas is far safer in terms of both risk and hazard than any other means of long range petroleum and petroleum product transport.

- ALL oil and gas is 'dirty'...but the cleanest West Texas light crude is only incrementally 'cleaner' in terms of contaminates than any of the heavier crudes. And if the metric to be used for goodness of a bulk stock to flow through pipelines is the arbitrary notion of 'cleanliness', then ND and SD shale oil derived bulk stock is incredibly light and sweet, so therefore 'good' for the environment, right?

- Re: causality... you may wish to look at the contemporaneous analysis and discussion fora in the US and international petroleum and capital markets industries during the Obama Administration's original decision to cancel the pipeline, the Trump Administration's decision to allow the pipeline to go forward, and the current Administration's Day One action to kill the pipeline. Makes for interesting reading. In summary, the value of the Keystone XL argument as a virtue-signaling tool for US candidates and administrations is second only to it's use as a tool to create or further compromise capital formation to support the petroleum industry.
 
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rv7charlie

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The article contains an interesting statement: The county’s airports now only sell unleaded fuel. However, many airplanes can only run on leaded, which has led to pilots refueling at surrounding Bay Area airports before landing at Reid-Hillview or San Martin.

How many planes in that county have an Mogas STC? It must be the highest concentration in the country.
I think you might have misread the statement. I read it as saying that they're just flying to nearby counties with avgas, filling up, and flying back home. So, *more* lead instead of less, because of the need to make fuel runs out of the county & back.
(Not that there was ever a real problem caused by avgas to begin with.)
 

SpruceForest

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Because some of those producers were forced into bankruptcy when the price of oil went negative. Those resources are likely still unavailable due to being tied up by the courts. Those that haven't rusted away during storage will eventually return to service. As noted in this, or another thread?, there has also been a loss of corporate knowledge that will take time to regenerate. Those with the most experience and knowledge are the first ones to permanently retire - in any industry that is shrinking.

edit:
A couple of weeks ago on a drive to the airport (for a reason completely unrelated to aviation). I was a passenger so I had plenty of time to observe. This drive goes through the heart of the local oil field/industrial area of the county. What I observed was a lot of buildings and yards empty - with no for sale/lease signs. The overall industry has expanded since the 80's. Along with the new buildings being empty many of the well established companies buildings, that didn't shut down the last time were also closed. Those business that remain open, of all types, not just oil field, show very noticeable signs of neglect, from what I suspect is simply having to put limited resources into areas other than paint and grounds maintenance.

It is going to be a few years before things get back to 'normal' - even with a pro fossil fuels bureaucracy in place.

The 1980's oil glut occurred about half way through my time in the Gulf of Mexico. By 1985, there were hundred million dollar jackup rigs stashed all over the Gulf Coast to the point where bad weather arrivals to oil support ports were complicated by those jack-up legs sitting up 20+ stories. It is a cyclic business that is about to get much more interesting as globalization proceeds off into the sunset.
 

ddsrph

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Regarding the Lead topic. It would do some people good to go back and read up on General Doolittle and his contributions to high octane fuels pre WWII. Some have argued that our capacity to manufacture the better grade of fuel that made the difference when all things were equal in the air during combat.

What really gets me is the talk of "carbon footprint". So lets go electric they scream. However, they never stop to think about those steam plants that produce electricity and all the coal the use to create the steam.

In reference to the pipeline being shut down. Now, instead of having a safe, reliable, and proven method of moving oil from the north to the south that allowed for a small "carbon footprint" now that same oil is having to be sent by 18 wheelers, trains, and water born shipping. All three methods leave a significant amount of "carbon footprints". I guess the genius' let that detail slip by them.

OR, it could all be by design.

Of course countries and corporations can purchase "carbon credits". LOFL!!!!!!

-YH


P



Pops,

Please post a pic of that MF if you get the chance. I would love to see it sir. I grew up on the old solidly built tractors. The Farm All Super Cub was the first vehicle I learned how to operate. Age 9 years old.

Thanks,
Yellowhammer
One thing to look into is the reasons a foreign government (Canada) wants to build a pipeline across the us to our gulf coast. Presently other pipelines are being expanded and even now only 5 % of their oil we import is being transported by rail and truck. Their oil is landlocked we are their only customer buying 97 percent of their production. The xl pipeline would allow them to export to Europe and China and when the pipeline company was looking for capital to build pipeline they highlighted that fact to potential investors.
 

Turd Ferguson

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I flew with a flight attendant one time, who was retired from the Petro-Chemical industry.
I used to fly a plane for a petroleum engineer. He was fond of saying humans can't burn all the oil on the planet. He did say at that time (mid 1980's) we didn't have reliable technology that would enable up to produce from most of those untapped sources.
 
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