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$10 gallon Avgas

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TXFlyGuy

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Hope this does not happen...but the likelihood of $10/gallon 100LL is a real possibility, in 12 to 24 months.

The Saudi-Russian oil war is impacting the US energy industry, in a very negative way. It is rumored that a barrel of oil could drop to $10. We all like cheap gas, but this will force many of the smaller oil well operators and fracking companies in Texas, Louisiana, and North Dakota out of business.

I listened to a long interview yesterday with the former Secretary of Energy, Rick Perry.

He laid out a scenario that will impact all of us, both in driving cars (if we ever get out of house arrest), and flying aircraft.

If 100LL hits 10 bucks, you will be able to pick up GA aircraft at fire sale prices.

At least with the T-51, we can burn auto gas, probably 6 to 8 bucks a gallon.
 

cblink.007

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Jul 7, 2014
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I have done multiple MOGAS STC mods in 2018 and 2019; I think more are ahead in the near future if this happens.

Good thing I designed my bird around a Rotax 912!!
 

ScaleBirdsScott

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Feb 10, 2015
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Uncasville, CT
It's possible that a lot of the things will go back to how they were but, it may take a long time and/or it may not go directly to the pricing it was. If a economic landscape changes drastically over the next 12 months, who knows what will restore.
 

TXFlyGuy

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The big question is how long will this last?
In 2008 when crude was $147 barrel, analyst predicted $10 gal avgas and jet fuel and once there it would stay there.

If that happens, you'll be seeing a lot of planes burning car gas.
And the ads in Trade-A-Plane will set all time records. Not many of us want to top off our tanks at 10 bucks a gallon.
My plane only holds 54 gallons, so that's $540.

Yes, car gas is an option. Cleaner burning also.
 

Hephaestus

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Jun 25, 2014
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YMM
You guys are worried about hitting 10$ a gallon?

Geeze last fill was 2.25/L here so that's 9$/gal... And that was fairly cheap...

Boiling frog scenario... Thanks for catching up :popcorn:
 

Jay Kempf

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Rick Perry has be so wrong about so many things... I'll guess the other way. Peak oil scares never panned out and out dependence on middle eastern oil has waned. I don't see this short term hit where OPEC has decided to commit suicide as anything that will be a long term trend in any way. Let the Shieks sell off some gold plated Bentley's while whining about the infidels. They're gonna anyway.
 

Pops

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Been burning auto fuel since the early 70's. Never any problems until the watering down of the BTU's with ethanol.
 

Rockiedog2

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Dec 11, 2012
Messages
2,393
Hope this does not happen...but the likelihood of $10/gallon 100LL is a real possibility, in 12 to 24 months.

The Saudi-Russian oil war is impacting the US energy industry, in a very negative way. It is rumored that a barrel of oil could drop to $10. We all like cheap gas, but this will force many of the smaller oil well operators and fracking companies in Texas, Louisiana, and North Dakota out of business.

I listened to a long interview yesterday with the former Secretary of Energy, Rick Perry.

He laid out a scenario that will impact all of us, both in driving cars (if we ever get out of house arrest), and flying aircraft.

If 100LL hits 10 bucks, you will be able to pick up GA aircraft at fire sale prices.

At least with the T-51, we can burn auto gas, probably 6 to 8 bucks a gallon.

Yeah that happened back during one of the fuel crunches...I forget which one. They don't mean much now. Anyway, I bought a cherry Apache with low time remans, low AF time...not a trainer...a corporate and photography plane. Nice. Paid 13K for it; flew it 300 hours in 3 years; some dude at some FBO offered me 26K for it and yeah I took it.
Lookin back, all the scares didn't amount to much. We just keep on truckin. Maybe this one will be different?

It'll be all right...
 

ToddK

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Jan 13, 2016
Messages
393
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The Real Texas
Hope this does not happen...but the likelihood of $10/gallon 100LL is a real possibility, in 12 to 24 months.

The Saudi-Russian oil war is impacting the US energy industry, in a very negative way. It is rumored that a barrel of oil could drop to $10. We all like cheap gas, but this will force many of the smaller oil well operators and fracking companies in Texas, Louisiana, and North Dakota out of business.

I listened to a long interview yesterday with the former Secretary of Energy, Rick Perry.

He laid out a scenario that will impact all of us, both in driving cars (if we ever get out of house arrest), and flying aircraft.

If 100LL hits 10 bucks, you will be able to pick up GA aircraft at fire sale prices.

At least with the T-51, we can burn auto gas, probably 6 to 8 bucks a gallon.
Where did you hear that interview?
 

12notes

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The equipment doesn't disappear when the wells close, when prices rise those same wells will be opened again. It is not likely to hit $10 per gallon. In current dollars, average gasoline prices for cars stay between $1.50-$4.00 per gallon. At the top end, domestic production skyrockets in a boom, and prices come down. At the low end, domestic production busts, and prices rise. The spikes are relatively brief, and $2.00-2.50 seems to be where the market settles.

Graph of fuel prices 1929-2015 in 2015 dollars. I couldn't find a more current chart with constant dollars, but prices stayed roughly in the $2.00-3.00 range since then:
from: Fact #915: March 7, 2016 Average Historical Annual Gasoline Pump Price, 1929-2015 (energy.gov)

Autogasprices.jpg

Avgas prices have followed these trends as well. Again, I couldn't easily find a graph up to current in constant dollars, and this one is wholesale prices (retail would be higher), but 100LL follows the trends of car gasoline (peaks in 1981 and 2008, 3 smaller peaks between). At worst, expect a similar average 100LL prices as you've seen in the last 10 years, realistically, it's going to be cheap for a while - inexpensive crude and low demand are not recipes for high prices, by any system of economics ever tested.

from page 42 of : Current and Historical Trends in General Aviation in the United States (MIT.edu) (warning, 93 page pdf)

avgasprices.jpg

Rick Perry is a bit too tied to domestic oil producers to be a reliable source predicting oil prices.
 

Toobuilder

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Mojave, Ca
Out here in California, diesel fuel at the pumps is by far the most expensive option, outstripping "premium" gasoline by a fair margin. It often approaches, and sometimes exceeds the cost of 100LL. No thanks.

Thanks to SDS EFI, I have a fuel system that works fine on the wicked chemical concoction that passes for automotive gasoline these days, and a programmable ignition that keeps detonation at bay without any fuss. If 100LL becomes unavailable, I'm ready.
 

cblink.007

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Jul 7, 2014
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534
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Texas, USA
Maybe a small diesel powered experimental?
DeltaHawk makes a great turbodiesel, but thanks to the obscenely expensive endeavor known as "certification", their engines are priced well out of of reach to most. It is too bad; I flew a DeltaHawk-powered Velocity many years ago, and was convinced that diesel was the way of the future in piston-powered GA!!

Maybe that is why Peter chose the converted Audi for the Raptor??
 

Voidhawk9

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Mar 26, 2012
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372
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Timaru, NZ
DeltaHawk makes a great turbodiesel, but thanks to the obscenely expensive endeavor known as "certification", their engines are priced well out of of reach to most. It is too bad; I flew a DeltaHawk-powered Velocity many years ago, and was convinced that diesel was the way of the future in piston-powered GA!!
What specifically did you like so much? Was it directly related to the fuel or more to do with the electronic control?
 

cblink.007

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Jul 7, 2014
Messages
534
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Texas, USA
What specifically did you like so much? Was it directly related to the fuel or more to do with the electronic control?
It was super quiet at altitude, and sipped less than 4GPH at at 165 KIAS cruise, 14,000MSL. No need for mixture fiddling, etc. Cost notwithstanding, the big drawback was the weight, given that it is a liquid cooled system. We used Jet-A for fuel.
 
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