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Thread: Crashes in the News - Thread

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    Moderator Topaz's Avatar
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    Re: Crashes in the News - Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by davidb View Post
    ... They have issued a continuing airworthiness directive in response to this accident basically saying there’s no justification to ground the fleet....
    Exactly. I'm getting frustrated with the entirely hyperbolic responses to this accident, as various parties and governments make "good use of a disaster" to further whichever agenda they happen to be pushing.

    The accident a few months ago seems to have been more of a "poor documentation" scenario for a control-laws change. While I agree that eyewitness testimony can be unreliable, they seem to have more than a couple of people who saw some evidence of combustion going on with this Ethiopian crash, while it was on the way down.
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    Re: Crashes in the News - Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by TXFlyGuy View Post
    Add Great Britain to the list of countries banning this aircraft.

    Iím sure we will all patiently wait for the next 24 months while the government authorities determine the cause.
    Pretty much all of Europe and the far east have suspended all flying with the 737 Max. No one will stand there doing nothing after China grounded the Chinese 737 Max fleet.

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    Registered User D Hillberg's Avatar
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    Re: Crashes in the News - Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by davidb View Post
    Thereís nothing new on the Max that makes an electrical fire more likely. If you put credibility on eyewitness accounts, itís more likely to be a bomb that exploded in the cargo compartment.
    Agree with fire or bomb, but the political B.S. with Pelosi and the grounding is more political (ie: hurt Boeing international contracts/stocks to make the administration look bad)
    No crisis goes to waste.

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    Re: Crashes in the News - Thread

    Could be another lithium battery fire in the cargo hold.

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    Re: Crashes in the News - Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by D Hillberg View Post
    Trailing white smoke? Yep that magic electricity is a bi*ch... can't put it back in the circuitry...
    737 flight controls (except spoilers on the Max, IIRC) are all good old cable-and-hydraulics. And there are lots of things that can cause smoke and/or control issues on one of these airplanes that have nothing to do with "magic electricity"


    Quote Originally Posted by BJC View Post
    While it is a tongue-in-cheek comment (I think), it is true that, in most cases, the NTSB takes way too long to determine the root cause of a crash. In this case, they should be able to determine if the auto trim, procedures, related training, maintenance, and the pilotís action was or was not the cause in less than two weeks. If that was not the cause, it could well take much longer to sift through the parts.
    I work with FDR data as part of my day job. I haven't worked any serious accidents (yet; assuming I stick around I'll be doing those eventually) but at least in every one of my minor investigations, the actual cause has been apparent very early on. I also work with the guys who do handle the accident investigations and and most of the ones they work, they generally know fairly quickly what actually happened. In those cases, the immediately-relevant information gets passed on to those who need to know.

    What takes a long time in such cases is the formal report because they're trying to make sure every detail is covered and that they didn't miss anything. Then the formal report has to be compiled, people interviewed, and so on.

    Others do take a long time to piece together. Structural failures, fires, etc. They take a lot of "forensics" type work.

    In this case, assuming the FDR and CVR survived with data, I suspect they'll know in a couple days whether they can rule out MCAS or not.


    Either way, what they don't want to happen is a rushed partial announcement (or worse a misinterpreted non-announcement) out of context. This is apparently what happened in the AA191 case where the NTSB vice-chairman was photographed with a broken bolt, with the public erroneously interpreting that as "the airplane is structurally unsound". That dealt a major (and undeserved) blow to the DC-10.
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    Re: Crashes in the News - Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by davidb View Post
    Well, the NTSB and the FAA don’t have any control over this investigation.
    That's very true. While extremely unlikely, the Ethiopian government could (if it felt like it) tell everyone to kiss off and bury the wreckage and there's nothing anyone could do about it. I know of one (non-airliner) crash where the authority with jurisdiction did exactly that--they basically ignored all offers of assistance and basically pretended like nothing happened.
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    Re: Crashes in the News - Thread

    A new 737 FDR will be data rich with information. Since planes are being grounded around the world, this information will be released early on to either correct a problem or exonerate the plane. Too much at stake to wait months for a formal investigation to be completed.

    I think 200 hr FO's are part of the problem. Both LionAir and Ethiopian have that in common

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    Re: Crashes in the News - Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Turd Ferguson View Post
    I think 200 hr FO's are part of the problem. Both LionAir and Ethiopian have that in common
    At 200 hours, they should be fully competent to fetch a proper cup of coffee for the captain.


    BJC

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    Re: Crashes in the News - Thread

    I don't know if they checked the recent maintenance records yet. Sometimes compliance with an AD can get things messed up.

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    Re: Crashes in the News - Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Turd Ferguson View Post
    I think 200 hr FO's are part of the problem. Both LionAir and Ethiopian have that in common
    ALPAís position on MPL pilots (200 hr FOs):

    "The Multi-Crew Pilot License1 (MPL) is a pilot-training scheme adopted by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in 2006. In the United States, the MPL is not an available pathway, and ALPA will actively oppose any efforts for it to become one. The MPL does not teach nor require students to demonstrate their mastery of well-established levels of progressively increasing responsibilities in flight operations. Unlike other pathways, MPL students do not obtain a private and commercial certificate as part of their progression. Just as troublesome, MPL pilots do not need to earn an instrument rating, which includes an instrument checkride in which students are required to demonstrate their knowledge and skills to an FAA-designated examiner. There are other problematic elements too, such as inadequate flight experience in single- engine and complex aircraft, and no specific requirement for basic multiengine aircraft training. Inherent weaknesses in the MPL program are evidenced by the fact that MPL pilots are not allowed to operate any aircraft for hire without an experienced captain. All pilots should be required to obtain private and commercial certificates, plus multiengine and instrument ratings, as prerequisites for issuance of the ATP or R-ATP certificates to qualify to fly as a first officer for an airline."

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    Re: Crashes in the News - Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by davidb View Post
    ALPA’s position on MPL pilots (200 hr FOs):

    "The Multi-Crew Pilot License1 (MPL) is a pilot-training scheme adopted by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in 2006. In the United States, the MPL is not an available pathway, and ALPA will actively oppose any efforts for it to become one. The MPL does not teach nor require students to demonstrate their mastery of well-established levels of progressively increasing responsibilities in flight operations. Unlike other pathways, MPL students do not obtain a private and commercial certificate as part of their progression. Just as troublesome, MPL pilots do not need to earn an instrument rating, which includes an instrument checkride in which students are required to demonstrate their knowledge and skills to an FAA-designated examiner. There are other problematic elements too, such as inadequate flight experience in single- engine and complex aircraft, and no specific requirement for basic multiengine aircraft training. Inherent weaknesses in the MPL program are evidenced by the fact that MPL pilots are not allowed to operate any aircraft for hire without an experienced captain. All pilots should be required to obtain private and commercial certificates, plus multiengine and instrument ratings, as prerequisites for issuance of the ATP or R-ATP certificates to qualify to fly as a first officer for an airline."
    Wow. Unbelievable. ICAO should list all the airlines who use MPL crew so I know which ones not to fly on.
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    Re: Crashes in the News - Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by BBerson View Post
    I don't know if they checked the recent maintenance records yet. Sometimes compliance with an AD can get things messed up.
    They have. The Lion Air 737 had had multiple squawks of multiple systems problems, including in-flight pitch excursions, prior to the accident flight. It was reported this morning that the review of the Ethiopian 737 maintenance records showed that it had not. Yet another way in which these crashes are dissimilar.
    "If you have built castles in the air, your work need not be lost; that is where they should be. Now put the foundations under them." - Henry David Thoreau

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    Re: Crashes in the News - Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by davidb View Post
    ALPA’s position on MPL pilots (200 hr FOs):

    "The Multi-Crew Pilot License1 (MPL) is a pilot-training scheme adopted by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in 2006. In the United States, the MPL is not an available pathway, and ALPA will actively oppose any efforts for it to become one."
    It is natural to be highly skeptical of ALPA's objectivity in situation like this--the economic interests of ALPA and its members are served by reducing the number of people qualified to compete for crew positions (a high bar to entry keeps wages high). But in this case I think they have a very valid position.

    Under normal circumstances, insurance companies would have an important role to play in subjects like this. Since they have a lot to lose in the case of a hull loss/large loss of life, they will refuse to write policies for operators with policies (qualifications, training, maintenance, etc) that they don't agree with ("What? You guys are going to put 200 hour FOs on the flight deck to save $50k per year, and thereby increase the risk I'll need to pay out $50 million dollars for an airplane and maybe a lot more to survivors? Ha! Save money someplace else." ). And, in a normal, market-oriented system, no insurance=no financing. Unfortunately, government underwriting of state flag carriers and government financing of deals have changed the normal risk assessment process and we've lost another check that would normally enhance safety.

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    Re: Crashes in the News - Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by rv6ejguy View Post
    Wow. Unbelievable. ICAO should list all the airlines who use MPL crew so I know which ones not to fly on.
    That’s why I stick almost exclusively to American owned and regulate airlines.

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    Re: Crashes in the News - Thread

    I just saw this on the local Fox News feed:

    President Donald Trump: announced the US is issuing 'emergency order' grounding all Boeing 737 Max 8 and Max 9 aircraft following Ethiopia crash.
    I hate it when politicians make aviation decisions like this rather than let the FAA/NTSB make this call.

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