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Thread: Homebuilt Fleet Sizes

  1. #31
    Registered User BBerson's Avatar
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    Re: Homebuilt Fleet Sizes

    About 15,000 airports. Or an average of 10-20 airplanes per airport.
    Hardly sustainable.

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  3. #32
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    Re: Homebuilt Fleet Sizes

    About 25 aircraft on our little grass field. Very little activity compared to 10 years ago. Just 3 or 4 of us are flying, most of the aircraft wasn't be flown for several years, just setting in hangers collecting dust. GA in this state is almost at a standstill. I rarely hear or see a GA airplane except from our field.
    Pops

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    Re: Homebuilt Fleet Sizes

    I wonder what would happen if Part 103 aircaft were included on that list?

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    Registered User gtae07's Avatar
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    Re: Homebuilt Fleet Sizes

    Quote Originally Posted by Wanttaja View Post
    I download the FAA survey results each year, which includes an estimate of the percentage of active aircraft and their average hours flown per year, divided by rather coarse categories.

    That's the report that says if a person owns a Cessna 172, they fly 200 hours per year, and if they sell it and buy an RV-8, they fly only 50 hours a year.

    Before the de-registration effort began, the FAA survey said 44% of homebuilts were inactive. After a quarter of the homebuilt fleet was eliminated in the de-registration process, the percentage of inactive homebuilts dropped by... 2%.

    Actually, how the conclusion was come to is mathematically logical. It's based on survey results, and the number of people responding to the survey didn't change. The surveys that were sent to the "Phantom" aircraft weren't ever returned, so they weren't included in the results. So despite 6000 non-existent aircraft being removed from the homebuilt fleet, the percentage of active aircraft basically didn't change.

    This bit homebuilding in another way. The FAA assumed that the accident rate shot way up...because there were ~200 accidents for a fleet of 33,000 aircraft in 2012 (0.60% accident rate), and ~200 accidents in a fleet of 27,000 aircraft in 2014 (0.74% accident rate). In reality, about the same number of aircraft, about the same number of aircraft, but on paper, the accident rate had skyrocketed.

    Ron Wanttaja


    Lies, damn lies, and statistics...
    I reserve the right to be smarter tomorrow than I was yesterday.

  6. #35
    Registered User Wanttaja's Avatar
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    Re: Homebuilt Fleet Sizes

    Quote Originally Posted by gtae07 View Post
    Lies, damn lies, and statistics...
    “Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is interesting. What they conceal is vital!”
    - Professor Aaron Levenstein

    “The purpose of analysis is insight, not bull****”
    - T.C. Weston, The Boeing Company, 1974

    Ron Wanttaja

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  8. #36
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    Re: Homebuilt Fleet Sizes

    Quote Originally Posted by ToddK View Post
    I wonder what would happen if Part 103 aircaft were included on that list?
    Nobody knows the number, I think.
    My observation is that since Light Sport, most have rotted away or otherwise inactive, sadly.

  9. #37
    Registered User Wanttaja's Avatar
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    Re: Homebuilt Fleet Sizes

    Quote Originally Posted by ToddK View Post
    I wonder what would happen if Part 103 aircaft were included on that list?
    My opinion is that a lot of people would be shocked at the small size of the fleet.

    Of the ~200 "homebuilt"* accidents investigated by the NTSB every year, 5-8 are listed as unregistered. Certainly, there are more that are unreported or that the FAA/NTSB ignores because of the Part 103 status. But one still comes out with Part 103 fleet size being significantly smaller than the homebuilt fleet.

    Ron Wanttaja

    * NTSB investigators use the "homebuilt" or "Amateur-Built" flag casually. About 10% of the "homebuilt" accidents each year aren't Experimental Amateur-Built aircraft.

  10. #38
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    Re: Homebuilt Fleet Sizes

    Quote Originally Posted by Little Scrapper View Post
    No Cassutt? Lol. Of course I'm biased.
    Well...shoot, let me answer with more than just the numbers.

    As I analyze each year's registration database, I need to automate the process as much as possible. Hence, I develop standard queries for each type of homebuilt aircraft.

    These queries are often more complex than one would think. Let's go through the process of finding the Cassutts.

    The registration database has a "Make" and a "Model" field. "Cassutt" is a nice search term, in that it's a unique term. Homebuilts are supposed to be registered with the Make the name of the builder, and the Model, the type of aircraft. So, we plug the term "*cassutt*" into our search term for the model, and get 117 hits.

    But...wait a minute, what if someone mis-spells "Cassutt"? Trying the same search term with only one "t" at the end ("*cassut*") we get an additional four hits. Just for the heck of it, try it assuming someone only uses one "s" as well. Nice thought, but there aren't any "Casut"s. Might be next year though...keep it in the query term?

    All right, so we use "*Cassut*" as the search term and get 121 hits. Is that all of them?

    Hmmm... while the FAA says to use the builder's name as the "Make", some folks don't do that. So let's search for "*cassut*" in the Make, too.

    ...and get another 26 airplanes.

    So, are those all the Cassutts?

    When one scrolls down the list of hits, one sees a lot of listings like "CASSUTT III M". Hmmmm....the "III M" seems to be a common model number for Cassutts. Let's add THAT to the search term.

    Is the "WELNIAK-BUDDE III M" a Cassutt? Probably. But now there's that little bit of uncertaintly. One starts running the trap line of variations... "IIIM," "111M," "3M", with varying spaces and order, all with wild cards to find them when they're embedded.

    And soon have 172 hits. But...a lot of them are obviously NOT Cassutts. A Mig 23M is not a Cassutt, neither is an Antares MA-33M or a Boeing 737-3M8. It's certainly possible to put some additional filters to eliminate the "Mikoyan"s and "Antares"es, but the best approach is to weed out the variations that don't seem to be very productive in resulting in actual Cassutts. So one bags the "3M" searches (while keeping the IIIM variant) and comes up with 148 aircraft.

    Then the next guy steps up, and wants to know how many of HIS type of aircraft is out there. :-)

    Right now, I've got about 70 different homebuilt aircraft type filters. Some of them overlap...for instance, I've got a search value for "Lancair" in general, as well as for Lancair IVs. With, roughly, 50 of them that DON'T overlap, my database can specifically identify only about 2/3rds of the homebuilt fleet. The rest are a bunch of types that have relatively few examples, or have names that are so far off the "true" that no one could figure out where they came from.

    Ron Wanttaja

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  12. #39
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    Re: Homebuilt Fleet Sizes

    Quote Originally Posted by Wanttaja View Post
    Well...shoot, let me answer with more than just the numbers.
    I may have come across in this posting more peevish than I intended. My apologies.

    I had just wanted to point out that counting a given type is more than just typing "RV-6" into a search box. It takes effort to achieve some degree of accuracy. That's why I don't have fleet sizes available for more than a few dozen homebuilt types.

    Ron Wanttaja

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  14. #40
    Registered User Wanttaja's Avatar
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    Re: Homebuilt Fleet Sizes

    OK....here's an attempt to determine the production quantities of the aircraft added to the US registry in 2016.

    Pay close attention, class... generating this table was a bit complex.

    1. I started with the 3 January 2017 US registration database ("This year")
    2. This database was compared to the 4 January 2016 one ("Last year")
    3. A "New N-Numbers" file was generated of N-Numbers that were on this year's database, but not the last year's.
    4. This "New N-Numbers" file had the aircraft model code and serial number compared to last year's database. This identified the aircraft that, themselves, were not new, but just had their N-numbers changed.
    5. Aircraft on the "Changed N-Number List" were removed from the "New N-Number" list to produce a list of what should be only aircraft added to the rolls in 2016.

    All the above was performed with my standard "Ignore Drones" filters... aircraft had to have one seat or more, or be lighter-than air.

    The resulting list was about 6,000 aircraft long. My net computation of new aircraft (using a simpler process, posted a while back) was about 500 aircraft more. I'm inclined to think the net computation number is more accurate, and that my process may have eliminated some valid aircraft. Also, some companies use temporary US registrations for planes that are to be exported.

    No matter, we still have 6,000 airplanes that were definitely new last year. The following table summarizes the number of new aircraft by manufacturer. I have eliminated all manufacturers with a production size of one; the vast majority of these will be homebuilts with the builder's name as the manufacturer. I also eliminated all "obvious" homebuilts...for instance, some builders use "VANS AIRCRAFT" for the manufacturer name, so the "VANS AIRCRAFT" tally was above my 2-plane-minimum threshold.

    The list was generated based on the REGISTERED manufacturer name. You will see some companies listed multiple times; this is due to the variation of the manufacturer's names in the various registrations. The variation in "Embraer" is particularly impressive.

    You will also see production values for long-dead aircraft companies...Aeronca, Stinson, Ercoupe, etc. This is probably due to previously-deregistered aircraft having their registration re-activated.


    MFR Name
    Count
    AERO COMMANDER
    10
    AERO STARZ
    2
    AERO VODOCHODY
    4
    AERO VODOCHODY AEROSPACE AS
    7
    AERONCA
    35
    AEROPILOT S R O
    2
    AEROPRAKT MANUFACTURING SP ZOO
    7
    AEROPRO CZ
    8
    AEROSPATIALE
    12
    AEROSTAR INTERNATIONAL INC
    5
    AEROTEK
    2
    AGUSTA SPA
    16
    AGUSTA WESTLAND PHILADELPHIA
    11
    AGUSTAWESTLAND PHILADELPHIA
    4
    AIR CREATION USA LLC
    2
    AIR TRACTOR INC
    70
    AIRBORNE WINDSPORTS PTY LTD
    4
    AIRBUS
    123
    AIRBUS HELICOPTERS
    19
    AIRBUS HELICOPTERS DEUTSCHLAND
    21
    AIRBUS HELICOPTERS INC
    34
    AIRBUS INDUSTRIE
    5
    AIRPLANE FACTORY (PTY) LTD
    4
    AIRPLANE FACTORY (PTY) LTD THE
    2
    AIRTIME AIRCRAFT INC
    4
    ALEXANDER SCHLEICHER GMBH & CO
    12
    ALEXANDER VAGNER
    2
    ALISPORT SRL
    4
    AMERICAN AVIATION
    3
    AMERICAN CHAMPION AIRCRAFT
    15
    AMERICAN LEGEND AIRCRAFT CO
    10
    ANDREW PHILIP RICHARDSON DBA
    18
    ARBC INC DBA LINDSTRAND
    30
    ATR-GIE AVIONS DE TRANSPORT
    2
    AUTOGYRO USA INC
    2
    AUTOGYRO USA LLC
    2
    AVIAN BALLOON
    2
    AVIAT AIRCRAFT INC
    23
    BALLOON WORKS
    9
    BALONY KUBICEK SPOL S R O
    5
    BALONY KUBICEK SPOL SRO
    26
    BEECH
    111
    BEECHCRAFT CORP
    2
    BELL
    70
    BELL HELICOPTER TEXTRON
    4
    BELL HELICOPTER TEXTRON CANADA
    55
    BELLANCA
    18
    BOEING
    346
    BOEING-VERTOL
    5
    BOMBARDIER INC
    143
    BRITISH AEROSPACE
    8
    BRITTEN-NORMAN
    3
    BRM AERO
    4
    BRM AERO SRO
    3
    BRUCE KREIKEMEIER
    2
    BURKHART GROB
    2
    CAMERON BALLOONS
    7
    CAMERON BALLOONS U S
    6
    CAMERON BALLOONS US
    29
    CANADAIR
    2
    CANADAIR LTD
    4
    CASSUTT
    2
    CESSNA
    529
    CESSNA AIRCRAFT CO
    4
    CHAMPION
    16
    CHRIS WALLEN
    2
    CIRRUS DESIGN CORP
    292
    CIRRUS DESIGN CORPORATION
    3
    CLASSIC AIRCRAFT CORP
    2
    COLT BALLOONS LTD
    2
    CONSTRUCCIONES AERONAUTICAS SA
    4
    COSTRUZIONI AERONAUTICHE TECNA
    25
    CSP LEASING LLC
    4
    CUB CRAFTERS INC
    16
    CUBCRAFTERS INC
    16
    CURTISS WRIGHT
    3
    CZECH AIRCRAFT WORKS SPOL SRO
    2
    CZECH SPORT AIRCRAFT A S
    20
    DASSAULT
    6
    DASSAULT AVIATION
    30
    DAYTON A DABBS
    2
    DEHAVILLAND
    24
    DG-FLUGZEUGBAU GMBH
    2
    DIAMOND AIRCRAFT IND GMBH
    36
    DIAMOND AIRCRAFT IND INC
    17
    DIAMOND AIRCRAFT INDUSTRIES GM
    3
    DISTAR CZ A S
    2
    DORNIER GMBH
    2
    DORNIER LUFTFAHRT GMBH
    2
    DOUGLAS
    4
    DOWNER
    2
    ECLIPSE AEROSPACE INC
    5
    EMBRAER
    27
    EMBRAER EMPRESA BRASILEIRA DE
    13
    EMBRAER EXECUTIVE AIRCRAFT INC
    37
    EMBRAER S A
    93
    EMBRAER SA
    19
    EMBRAER-EMPRESA BRASILEIRA DE
    2
    ENGINEERING & RESEARCH
    2
    ENSTROM
    3
    ENSTROM HELICOPTER CORP
    5
    ERCOUPE
    4
    EUROCOPTER
    13
    EUROCOPTER DEUTSCHLAND GMBH
    2
    EVEKTOR - AEROTECHNIK A S
    2
    EVOLUTION AIRCRAFT INC
    7
    EXTRA FLUGZEUGBAU GMBH
    2
    EXTRA FLUGZEUGPRODUKTIONS
    4
    EXTRA FLUGZEUGPRODUKTIONS-UND
    7
    FAIRCHILD
    6
    FIREFLY BALLOONS 2010 INC
    2
    FLIGHT DESIGN GMBH
    5
    GATES LEARJET
    2
    GATES LEARJET CORP
    2
    GIPPSAERO PTY LTD
    4
    GLOBE
    5
    GROB AIRCRAFT AG
    5
    GRUMMAN AMERICAN AVN. CORP.
    19
    GULFSTREAM AEROSPACE
    41
    GULFSTREAM AEROSPACE CORP
    53
    GULFSTREAM AEROSPACE LP
    2
    GULFSTREAM AM CORP COMM DIV
    2
    GULFSTREAM AMERICAN CORP
    3
    HAWKER BEECHCRAFT CORP
    28
    HAWKER SIDDELEY
    3
    HEAD BALLOONS INC
    5
    HELICOPTERES GUIMBAL
    9
    HELIO
    2
    HILLER
    4
    HONDA AIRCRAFT CO LLC
    16
    HONDA AIRCRAFT COMPANY LLC
    2
    HOWARD AIRCRAFT
    4
    HPH SPOL SRO
    2
    HUGHES
    14
    IAI LTD
    24
    ICON AIRCRAFT INC
    14
    ICP SRL
    2
    ISRAEL AEROSPACE IND LTD
    2
    ISRAEL AEROSPACE INDUSTRIESLTD
    4
    ISRAEL AIRCRAFT INDUSTRIES
    3
    JABIRU AIRCRAFT PTY LTD
    8
    JARDINE AVIATION LLC
    2
    KAZAN HELICOPTERS
    4
    KEYSTONE HELICOPTER CORP
    2
    KITTY HAWK
    3
    LAKE
    3
    LEARJET INC
    34
    LET
    2
    LINDSTRAND BALLOONS
    5
    LUSCOMBE
    10
    MAULE
    13
    MCDONNELL DOUGLAS
    6
    MD HELICOPTERS INC
    6
    MESSERSCHMITT-BOELKOW-BLOHM
    2
    MESSERSCHMITT-BOELKOW-BLOHM-GM
    2
    MESSERSCHMITT-BOLKOW-BLOHM
    2
    MOONEY
    22
    MOONEY AIRCRAFT CORP.
    3
    MOONEY AIRPLANE CO INC
    2
    MOONEY INTERNATIONAL CORP
    4
    NAVAL AIRCRAFT FACTORY
    2
    NAVION
    3
    NORTH AMERICAN
    12
    NORTH WING UUM INC
    2
    NORTHROP
    2
    PAUL VAGNER
    2
    PILATUS
    3
    PILATUS AIRCRAFT LTD
    63
    PIPER
    304
    PIPER AIRCRAFT INC
    47
    PIPISTREL LSA S R L
    6
    POWRACHUTE LLC
    18
    PPHU EKOLOT
    3
    PROGRESSIVE AERODYNE INC
    12
    QUEST AIRCRAFT COMPANY LLC
    26
    QUICKSILVER
    4
    QUICKSILVER AERONAUTICS LLC
    2
    RAINBOW SKY REACH (PTY) LTD
    6
    RAYTHEON AIRCRAFT COMPANY
    43
    RAYTHEON CORPORATE JETS INC
    3
    REPUBLIC
    3
    RICARDO DE ALMEIDA
    2
    ROBINSON HELICOPTER
    40
    ROBINSON HELICOPTER CO
    22
    ROBINSON HELICOPTER COMPANY
    70
    ROCKWELL INTERNATIONAL
    3
    ROLLADEN-SCHNEIDER
    2
    RYAN
    3
    RYAN AERONAUTICAL
    2
    SCHEMPP HIRTH FLUGZEUGBAU GMBH
    3
    SCHEMPP-HIRTH
    3
    SCHLEICHER
    3
    SCHREDER
    2
    SCHWEIZER
    8
    SCODA AERONAUTICA LTDA
    6
    SHORT BROTHERS PLC
    8
    SIAI-MARCHETTI
    3
    SIKORSKY
    62
    SIKORSKY AIRCRAFT CORP
    12
    SILVERLIGHT AVIATION LLC
    2
    SIX CHUTER WEST LLC
    3
    SKYRUNNER LLC
    3
    SLINGSBY
    2
    SOCATA
    54
    STEMME AG
    2
    STINSON
    18
    TAYLORCRAFT
    21
    TEXTRON AVIATION INC
    469
    THRUSH AIRCRAFT INC
    30
    THUNDER & COLT AIRBORNE AMER
    2
    THUNDER & COLT LTD
    3
    TL ULTRALIGHT SRO
    4
    TL-ULTRALIGHT S R O
    2
    TRAVEL AIR
    3
    TRITON AERO-MARINE INDUSTRIES
    2
    U-FLY-IT LIGHT SPORT ACFT LLC
    2
    ULTRAMAGIC
    4
    ULTRAMAGIC SA
    6
    UNIVERSAL
    2
    UNIVERSAL STINSON
    6
    VARGA AIRCRAFT CORP.
    2
    WACO
    3
    WACO CLASSIC AIRCRAFT
    4
    WACO CLASSIC AIRCRAFT CORP
    3
    YAKOVLEV
    2

    Ron Wanttaja

  15. #41
    Registered User BBerson's Avatar
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    Re: Homebuilt Fleet Sizes

    GAMA lists actual shipments. The numbers were down for 2015, according to the website. The 2016 numbers will be out in February.
    I think Cessna might get a block of N numbers, but not necessarily use them for actual registrations and sales.

  16. #42
    Registered User Wanttaja's Avatar
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    Re: Homebuilt Fleet Sizes

    Quote Originally Posted by BBerson View Post
    GAMA lists actual shipments. The numbers were down for 2015, according to the website. The 2016 numbers will be out in February.
    I think Cessna might get a block of N numbers, but not necessarily use them for actual registrations and sales.
    I'm certain that's the case for other manufacturers, such as Icon. However, the manfacturer does have to supply a serial number for each registration.

    Also, the Cessna/Piper etc. numbers will be inflated by previously-deregistered aircraft returned to the rolls, just like the Aero Commanders/Aeroncas, etc.

    Ron Wanttaja

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    Re: Homebuilt Fleet Sizes

    Quote Originally Posted by BBerson View Post
    GAMA lists actual shipments.
    Of only a fraction of total shipments. Actual shipments are a few times higher.
    Kennis vermenigvuldig je door het te delen.
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  18. #44
    Registered User gtae07's Avatar
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    Re: Homebuilt Fleet Sizes

    Quote Originally Posted by autoreply View Post
    Of only a fraction of total shipments. Actual shipments are a few times higher.
    I want to believe you, but... source?
    I reserve the right to be smarter tomorrow than I was yesterday.

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    Re: Homebuilt Fleet Sizes

    I do not see one Fisher airplane. I know of three on this forum who own a registered Fisher Airplane. I am sure there are many others who own one of these registered Fisher airplanes.

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