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Thread: Homebuilt Fleet Sizes

  1. #16
    Registered User BBerson's Avatar
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    Re: Homebuilt Fleet Sizes

    7000 total?

    I remember EAA reporting EA-B total at 30,000 a few years ago.

  2. #17
    Registered User Wanttaja's Avatar
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    Re: Homebuilt Fleet Sizes

    Quote Originally Posted by BBerson View Post
    7000 total?

    I remember EAA reporting EA-B total at 30,000 a few years ago.
    See Post #3... EAB Total as of 3 January was 28830.

    EAB got to about 33,000 in 2011, but then the re-registration effort took a lot of phantom homebuilts off the rolls.

    Ron Wanttaja

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    Registered User BBerson's Avatar
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    Re: Homebuilt Fleet Sizes

    Quote Originally Posted by Wanttaja View Post
    See Post #3... EAB Total as of 3 January was 28830.

    EAB got to about 33,000 in 2011, but then the re-registration effort took a lot of phantom homebuilts off the rolls.

    Ron Wanttaja
    Ok, sorry.
    So about 7000 new aircraft of both homebuilts and GA are registered each year? (Seems high)
    So, it appears more homebuilts are registered than deregistered each year now.
    Are more GA certified airplanes registered than deregistered each year now?
    Last edited by BBerson; January 5th, 2017 at 04:07 PM. Reason: still confused

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    Re: Homebuilt Fleet Sizes

    And there is the possibility that some of those de-registered planes are still in existence, just parked in a barn. (Next to the wooden Chris-Craft boat, 65 Mustang convertible and fully dressed Indian Chief). They may theoretically be discovered one day, returned to flying condition and re-registered.
    “The only difference between reality and fiction is that fiction needs to be credible.” - Mark Twain

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    Registered User gtae07's Avatar
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    Re: Homebuilt Fleet Sizes

    Quote Originally Posted by Wanttaja View Post
    Well, that's cool. It appears to be mostly drones!

    I'm digging for a definitive flag in the registration data. But there are almost 3500 electric-motored aircraft in the registry, and I'm betting all but a few are drones.

    Will re-do the numbers once I find a consistent way of eliminating them.
    Are your totals just GA aircraft, or all aircraft? IIRC worldwide piston airplane production is only ~1000 airframes/year. I'd bet that number of "new adds" includes a few hundred airliners, business jets, etc.

    I'd really like to see just piston-engine light aircraft compared to homebuilts...
    I reserve the right to be smarter tomorrow than I was yesterday.

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    Re: Homebuilt Fleet Sizes

    A lot of the GA fleet is been bought and shipped out of country.
    Pops

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    Re: Homebuilt Fleet Sizes

    Quote Originally Posted by gtae07 View Post
    Are your totals just GA aircraft, or all aircraft? IIRC worldwide piston airplane production is only ~1000 airframes/year. I'd bet that number of "new adds" includes a few hundred airliners, business jets, etc.

    I'd really like to see just piston-engine light aircraft compared to homebuilts...
    Those are GAMA numbers. The real number (certified sep) is 3 times higher ;-)
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  9. #23
    Registered User Wanttaja's Avatar
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    Re: Homebuilt Fleet Sizes

    Quote Originally Posted by BBerson View Post
    Ok, sorry.
    So about 7000 new aircraft of both homebuilts and GA are registered each year? (Seems high)
    So, it appears more homebuilts are registered than deregistered each year now.
    Are more GA certified airplanes registered than deregistered each year now?
    The Overall FAA database (which includes both GA and non-GA aircraft) showed a net decrease in aircraft from 2009 to 2015. The latest was first year that showed an increase since the re-registration effort started. EAB were only in the red from 2012 to 2014.

    This plot is similar to one I posted earlier, but does NOT include Drones (to my ability to detect them.....)

    Year
    All
    Net Increase
    Aircraft Deregistered in that Year
    New Aircraft Registered
    Year
    EAB
    Net EAB Increase
    EAB Deregistered in that Year
    New EAB Registered
    2000
    343873
    Data not provided until 2009
    2000
    23286
    Data not provided until 2009
    2001
    348317
    4444
    2001
    24577
    1291
    2002
    351738
    3421
    2002
    25718
    1141
    2003
    354529
    2791
    2003
    26593
    875
    2004
    356064
    1535
    2004
    27614
    1021
    2005
    359540
    3476
    2005
    28539
    925
    2006
    364033
    4493
    2006
    29427
    888
    2007
    373462
    9429
    2007
    30367
    940
    2008
    376124
    2662
    2008
    31242
    875
    2009
    374373
    -1751
    7018
    5267
    2009
    31914
    672
    464
    1136
    2010
    373896
    -477
    5422
    4945
    2010
    32682
    768
    309
    1077
    2011
    367857
    -6039
    11224
    5185
    2011
    33038
    356
    666
    1022
    2012
    352198
    -15659
    20985
    5326
    2012
    32041
    -997
    1951
    954
    2013
    317813
    -34385
    40180
    5795
    2013
    27946
    -4095
    5013
    918
    2014
    312281
    -5532
    12573
    7041
    2014
    27909
    -37
    1084
    1047
    2015
    311014
    -1267
    8182
    6915
    2015
    28078
    169
    781
    950
    2016
    314005
    2991
    3467
    6458
    2016
    28830
    752
    225
    977

    Ron Wanttaja

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    Re: Homebuilt Fleet Sizes

    No Cassutt? Lol. Of course I'm biased.

    Mini max?

  11. #25
    Registered User Wanttaja's Avatar
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    Re: Homebuilt Fleet Sizes

    Quote Originally Posted by Pops View Post
    A lot of the GA fleet is been bought and shipped out of country.
    The list of De-Registered aircraft goes all the way back to the late 1920s, and has 270,000 entries. 85,000 of them are shown as exported.

    Since 1990, 54,000 aircraft were exported, and since 2000, it's 40,000. Some of these include production-type aircraft that had a temporary US Registration prior to shipment.

    Ron Wanttaja

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    Re: Homebuilt Fleet Sizes

    I'm a bit hesitant to look at these numbers and make too many conclusions. In 2009 we hit a global crisis. A local airport FBO looked like a ghost town. Finally things are starting to grow.

    I think the economy pushed a lot of average people on hold in the homebuilt realm. The "kits" seem to represent a certain demographic that isn't as severely impacted as the scratch built guys.

    All I'm saying is the scratch built crowd is a very different group than the kit assemblers. Not saying one is better than the other but there's a clear difference in economics, my opinion of course.

    In 2008 - 2011 many many scratch builders i know (knew) stopped building. The type of person (demographic) they are got hit hard.

  13. #27
    Registered User BBerson's Avatar
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    Re: Homebuilt Fleet Sizes

    Ron,
    You might try to get a list of "active" aircraft.
    I asked the contractor that does the annual activity survey. He emailed me his data. I seem to recall the active was about 150,000.

  14. #28
    Registered User Wanttaja's Avatar
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    Re: Homebuilt Fleet Sizes

    Quote Originally Posted by BBerson View Post
    Ron,
    You might try to get a list of "active" aircraft.
    I asked the contractor that does the annual activity survey. He emailed me his data. I seem to recall the active was about 150,000.
    I download the FAA survey results each year, which includes an estimate of the percentage of active aircraft and their average hours flown per year, divided by rather coarse categories.

    That's the report that says if a person owns a Cessna 172, they fly 200 hours per year, and if they sell it and buy an RV-8, they fly only 50 hours a year.

    Before the de-registration effort began, the FAA survey said 44% of homebuilts were inactive. After a quarter of the homebuilt fleet was eliminated in the de-registration process, the percentage of inactive homebuilts dropped by... 2%.

    Actually, how the conclusion was come to is mathematically logical. It's based on survey results, and the number of people responding to the survey didn't change. The surveys that were sent to the "Phantom" aircraft weren't ever returned, so they weren't included in the results. So despite 6000 non-existent aircraft being removed from the homebuilt fleet, the percentage of active aircraft basically didn't change.

    This bit homebuilding in another way. The FAA assumed that the accident rate shot way up...because there were ~200 accidents for a fleet of 33,000 aircraft in 2012 (0.60% accident rate), and ~200 accidents in a fleet of 27,000 aircraft in 2014 (0.74% accident rate). In reality, about the same number of aircraft, about the same number of aircraft, but on paper, the accident rate had skyrocketed.

    Ron Wanttaja

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    Registered User BBerson's Avatar
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    Re: Homebuilt Fleet Sizes

    So, if 44% or 42% are inactive, that is still a big percentage.
    Probably only 200,000 active aircraft supporting all those airports.

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    Re: Homebuilt Fleet Sizes

    and at least 3 FAA employees for every plane.
    “The only difference between reality and fiction is that fiction needs to be credible.” - Mark Twain

    “If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bull$hi+.” ― W.C. Fields

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