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Thread: Crashes in the News - Thread

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    Registered User Lucrum's Avatar
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    Re: Crashes in the News - Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Turd Ferguson View Post
    Worded another way, the NTSB only reports facts that are discovered during the course of an accident investigation. So when the dreaded "No flight plan was filed" is reported, that is a verifiable fact. Nevermind that it did or did not contribute to the accident, that's one of the boxes that must be checked off on the form so that's why it's there. At the end of the investigation, an investigator or team of investigators often offer a probably cause, which may or may not be factually accurate. The probable cause statement usually contains personal bias and prejudice because of the human element. We all have our preconceived ideas. In my very limited accident investigation training, in one exercise they present an accident scenario and every team is given the same facts. They then work backwards to try and find a "probably cause" yet none of the teams came up with similar probable causes because inevitably, personal bias and prejudices lead us down different paths.

    When a so called "accident investigator" reports with little factual information and lots of personal bias, a light bulb should go off in your head. At that point there's not much reporting going on, which is fine as long as it's stated as such. Often personal bias and prejudice are reported as fact because the reporter presents as some kind of all knowing expert. Remember, on the internet, anyone can be an expert.
    I didn't realize so many GA pilots had so little faith in NTSB accident reports. I'm no expert on NTSB reports but I have studied a number of corporate and airline accident reports over the years.

    Is it the "pilot error" part you guys don't like?
    ...If you forget this, you will be subjected to a four phase aeronautical process that dates back to the early 1900’s. Stall, spin, crash and burn. Phase 4 requires some amount of fuel on board at time of impact.

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    Registered User bmcj's Avatar
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    Re: Crashes in the News - Thread

    Scrapper, I agree that we rarely learn something new in these discussions, but they do often serve to remind of things that have been moved to the back burners of our minds and they provide enough shock reaction to jumpstart our cautious half.

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    Registered User D Hillberg's Avatar
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    Re: Crashes in the News - Thread

    after 18 years of pulling wrecks out of smoking holes (2 to 3 a month) the common cause is neglect, Something the poor bastard should of done but he 'had to get home' or go somewhere they thought was more important then waiting a few minutes or hours to let things settle, fuel, food, weather, flight path - what ever, slow down and enjoy the trip.

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  6. #34
    Registered User Little Scrapper's Avatar
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    Re: Crashes in the News - Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Turd Ferguson View Post
    In my very limited accident investigation training, in one exercise they present an accident scenario and every team is given the same facts. They then work backwards to try and find a "probably cause" yet none of the teams came up with similar probable causes because inevitably, personal bias and prejudices lead us down different paths. .
    I find this extremely interesting.

    Many reports indicate that a pilot log book couldn't be found. Also interesting.

    Many reports also indicate that a pilot hasn't flown in a lengthy period. This could mean multiple things, engineso that sit....not good. Pilots that don't fly often....not good.

    There's so much speculation in the NTSB reports I stand by my words that actual "learning" is very very difficult.

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    Registered User Little Scrapper's Avatar
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    Re: Crashes in the News - Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by bmcj View Post
    Scrapper, I agree that we rarely learn something new in these discussions, but they do often serve to remind of things that have been moved to the back burners of our minds and they provide enough shock reaction to jumpstart our cautious half.
    I agree.

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    Registered User Glider's Avatar
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    Re: Crashes in the News - Thread

    I tend to binge read NTSB reports when I'm curious about a specific plane or other particular. Years ago I happened to be on a Russian airplane kick, and found three (?) instances where Yak-52s had crashed because a pair of pliers (?) had fallen back into the tail, and jammed the elevator control (?).

    Assuming I'm remembering things correctly, I'm sure the second and third (?) guy would have liked to have heard about the first. Maybe they did.

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    Registered User D Hillberg's Avatar
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    Re: Crashes in the News - Thread

    NTSB are not experts the manufactures are, Had to 'teach' an NTSB buddy about helicopter dynamics, He learned a lot and I was at his side for a lot of his investigations, He retired not too long ago.

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    Re: Crashes in the News - Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Lucrum View Post
    I didn't realize so many GA pilots had so little faith in NTSB accident reports. I'm no expert on NTSB reports but I have studied a number of corporate and airline accident reports over the years.
    If by faith you mean "complete trust or confidence" that would be accurate. I have complete faith in the facts discovered during accident investigations. However, many probable cause statements don't pass the smell test.

    Is it the "pilot error" part you guys don't like?
    The NTSB doesn't list "pilot error" as a probable cause anymore. Perhaps they have evolved as an investigative agency?

    With many years experience as an instructor and a period of service as ASAP ERC, there is no shortage of pilot errors. Not all of them result in an accident. Corollary to that, accidents are rarely the result of a single pilot error.
    “The only difference between reality and fiction is that fiction needs to be credible.” - Mark Twain

    “If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bull$hi+.” ― W.C. Fields

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    Re: Crashes in the News - Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by D Hillberg View Post
    NTSB are not experts the manufactures are, Had to 'teach' an NTSB buddy about helicopter dynamics, He learned a lot and I was at his side for a lot of his investigations, He retired not too long ago.
    Correct, which is why the NTSB will often invite experts to participate in investigations.
    “The only difference between reality and fiction is that fiction needs to be credible.” - Mark Twain

    “If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bull$hi+.” ― W.C. Fields

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    Re: Crashes in the News - Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Little Scrapper View Post
    There's so much speculation in the NTSB reports I stand by my words that actual "learning" is very very difficult.
    I think from an educational perspective, reading the facts in an accident report are analogous to sifting through a bed of oysters. You examine them, pry some open only to discover they are oysters. If one looks long enough and hard enough, they might find a pearl. For the casual reader of accident reports, that pearl can be elusive. So again, from an educational perspective, probably not a very efficient learning method.

    On the other hand, I have always found accident reports an entertaining read. Perhaps I'm one of those psycho's.

    An alternative might be to read the analyzed version of an accident in aviation publications. They are usually structured to be "educational" and as such you would think they would point out the pearls. On the other hand, if the author introduces too much personal bias, he might obfuscate the pearls...
    “The only difference between reality and fiction is that fiction needs to be credible.” - Mark Twain

    “If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bull$hi+.” ― W.C. Fields

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    Re: Crashes in the News - Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Little Scrapper View Post
    Can anyone list the top 5 reasons a homebuilt airplane crashes with a 100% fatality? I would like to see that list.
    Ooooo, good suggestion:

    This the percentage of time at least one fatality occurs (vs. the 100% fatality you asked for) but I'm suspecting it wouldn't change much.

    BTW, "Other Mechanical" refers to mechanical failures other than the engine.


    Ron Wanttaja
    Last edited by Wanttaja; June 9th, 2016 at 12:52 AM.

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    Re: Crashes in the News - Thread

    Actually my intent was simply to report crashes in the news around the world when we see them; not to be a downer or depressant on aviation or even necessarily to learn from accident mistakes; not everybody watches the news everywhere but my guess is, you guys click "New Posts" religiously here like I do. More eyes are better than two.

    I use an app called Fast News a lot and once in a while something might be in the news aviation related. Post an airplane crash if you see it in the news. I know if like something like the Glacier Girl crashed I would want to know but I might of missed it being off somewhere else. Maybe it might of been someone you knew or knew about, or a historic old warbird or unusual plane or circumstance. Something more like the eBay thread. Spot it, post it, if it causes some discussion, alrighty then, until the next one posted.

    As for me barnstorming fields, well... that's pretty much the only reason I want to fly, dangerous or not. I have nowhere to go; won't have a fast plane; there is nothing I want to see up high; don't want to get hypoxia; and oddly even though I can be something of a hardcore adrenilin junky, I also am a fragile squishy primate and inherently and rightfully so disconcerted by great heights. I was talking with my dad about it today and he said it's different in a plane, compared to say being on top of a TV antenna tower looking down... as in a plane you have no frame of reference like having a tower below you. Of course I've been in planes plenty so I had to ponder it and nod agreement.

    What disconcerts me is in an Ultralight, at least mine, you have no nose in front of you, no floor below you, no doors around you, and your only thing resembling a cowl is your tennis shoes. So yes I'm probably going to be a bit disconcerted with only my tennis shoes sticking out in front of me where one might expect an instrument panel and a windshield for an attitude reference to the horizon..

    If I can fly 20 to 200 feet off the fields hopping hedge rows to return back to right above skimming above ground effect I'll be happy... I have no problem setting down in a field right below me with no other choice should the engine go out. Break out the cellphone an call for a pickup...

    I realize this defies conventional wisdom to gain lots of altitude so you got lots of time to make a plan and find a place to land in a GA plane or ultralight that drops like a rock. But most of where I want to fly I'm already going to be over a place to land in a nice little glider with a not shabby 2.6 lbs/square ft wing loading. When leaving an airport or crossing a huge unbroken forest I plan to gain plenty of altitude to have that margin of safety, until I get to the next field to play in where I can watch the world go by at a blazing 40 mph...

    As for not discussing people dying... well... the reality is we are all dying here.. whether we like it or not, flying or not. In only 100 years time all of us here will be dead. And 100 years is not even a drop in the bucket of eternity. So hello all you opinionated dead people! Being an opinionated argumentitive geeky nerd occasional ahole myself, I think I'm in the right place!! Birds of a feather, we flock together...

    Would you rather die peacefully in your sleep unaware you were dying, or fully awake doing something you loved? Of course nobody wants to die, but then, we don't much get to chose when or how most of the time... and don't see it coming... or believe its coming either... total denial... if you knew you were about to unexpectedly die, you'd change your otherwise routine and harmless appearing plan for the day... before the uncanny series of unfortunate and inexplicable events occured.
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    Re: Crashes in the News - Thread

    Ultralights -- something I'm quite interested in -- crashes aren't throughly investigated, if at all, and media reports get many things wrong, however when I read about one, I try to do a bit of looking into the possible causes, just for my own knowledge which translate into safer flying. Recently in my FB news feed there were two different ultralight fatalities. One was apparently brought down by a failure to complete a loop close to the ground and the other apparently exceeded the g-rating for the vehicle and folded a wing. Although, it was too bad for the (sorry to say this, stupid) pilots, it was a sigh of relief knowing that vehicles themselves had nothing to do with causes of the crashes. And looking at Ron's chart, both incidents fit among the top 4 causes.

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    Registered User Little Scrapper's Avatar
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    Re: Crashes in the News - Thread

    CG, everyone here is well aware we are all gonna die, i can assure you. Barnstorming fields at low altitude in a 2 stroke ultralight? There's 2 people in town who didn't die from this, they drink food through a straw though, so that's nice. I seem to be the only one here who is shocked by your comments on flying. I guess the world is changing and I'm a bit old fashioned, I'm probably outdated in this world but no thanks. I've been in 2 strokes, and I've had engine issues in a quicksilver MX. I pray to God you don't lose lift at an unusual attitude in that Vollmer. Part of not having any experience is the imagemail you paint in your mind of how the future plays out tends to be optimistic.

    Ron, thanks for the chart.

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    Re: Crashes in the News - Thread

    I'm not a fan of dying while flying. This thing of dying "while doing something he loved to do" is nothing but BS. I want to die in bed with my loved ones near me, tomorrow or 20 years from now. Maybe i'm a wuss, but that's my thoughts. Gleaning info from other accidents is a learning tool. So reporting them here as reported by media or NTSB without speculation is good. Flying below stall recovery altitude is not my thing. I don't know numbers, but I think not a lot of deaths happen at safe altitude unless over water or mountains or into a thunderstorm. Very low and slow don't appeal to me.

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