Winter depression anyone?

I don't know like you guys, but I have an allergy on white color, unfortunately almost my entire country is covered by snow at the moment (actually for the last 40 days, second year in row). Check out those pics, it's looks like a North Pole, seems that guys from global warming, fight successively.

I can't wait to see green color and sunshine again, fortunately we have youtube with nice movies check out those two, that's what I call flying, life starts at 200mph+

YouTube - Running the Coast

YouTube - Running the Coast
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YouTube - Velocity Dreams

YouTube - Velocity Dreams
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Seb

For winter depression LEDs that are blue help a lot. Blue LED light box


By my count this is year 3 of the next ice age. What I think caused the last ice age (The little ice age 1315~1730) to end was the start of the industrial revolution. Or more precisely the burning of large amounts of coal in England. This actually predated the industrial revolution a bit. The soot released painted the snow black and it melted. This caused more sunlight to be absorbed and so it was warmer the next year and so more rain and less snow. Less snow means more heat kept in and warmer next year etc....


You can see the color deference in the antarctic ice from when the US passed the clean air act. So more light (Heat) reflected into space and cooler temps. CO2 has got nothing to do with it.

Here are global lower troposphere satellite temps for January 2010.

Cold in USA, Europe and Siberia, warm elsewhere.

That temp anomaly looks to be putting the cold and ice down farther south than normal and so resulting in more sunlight being reflected back into space. That should make the weather colder next winter.

Typical Arizona day here 70F and severe clear. Shoveling sunshine.

Originally Posted by vortilon

Typical Arizona day here 70F and severe clear. Shoveling sunshine.

I hate you!

Old Sol has heated up and cooled down a few times over the eon's, that degree or lack of solar radiation has a significant impact on climate. Winter blue's aren't any fun at all, we've had more than a bit of snow this year and snow cover, coupled with an over cast sky are gloomy. Bring on the bright sunshine and roll in springtime...

I understand they are having a little trouble getting snow for the winter olympics in Canada.

Interesting piccy, but I'm having trouble figuring out why Canada in winter shows up as much hotter than Australia in summer...

I was wondering that as well?

All the data we seem to get down here in Australia says things are changing and much faster in some areas and slower in others. Living in a country that is the driest and hottest continent on the planet - we tend to notice pretty quickly.

I would love some of your snow. As our average temp here rises the fire season gets more intense and firestorms become more regular and much more deadly- last year over 200 died and a million acres destroyed including whole towns in one of our cooler southern states- Victoria. The firefront at one stage moved at up to 250kph.

Unless this trend changes, the last thing I would expect is another ice age.

sweating it out
Litespeed

We need to define exactly what they are mapping in that graphic chart. The scale says "Brightness Temperature Anomoly", but what does that mean? Is it a measure of the CHANGE or reflectivity from the Earth and clouds? Depending on the true definition, we may be reading the chart opposite of its true interpretation.

That is the pitfall of debates such as this... people can throw out graphics to justify their point of view, but until you really know what it is saying, you don't know which side of the argument, if either, it actually validates.

Bruce

Originally Posted by Orwasi

Interesting piccy, but I'm having trouble figuring out why Canada in winter shows up as much hotter than Australia in summer...

The pix is a measure of degrees variation from average.

Originally Posted by Alan Waters

I understand they are having a little trouble getting snow for the winter olympics in Canada.
What we believe or do not believe does not change the facts.

This is very true. But the facts are: This is the third colder than average winter for the mid latitudes in a row. More snow = more sunlight reflected back into space = cooler next year. Also, and this is a fact, at the start of the current worming trend the amount of CO2 released by human activity was far less than it is. However the amount of soot released by humans in Europe was far higher than it is now. Now the conclusions that I've drawn from this is that CO2 isn't the problem soot or the lack of it is. Facts and opinions are two different things.



Disproving The Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) Problem « the Air Vent Interesting reading. Here is a link to the raw data RSS / MSU and AMSU Data / Description
RSS / MSU and AMSU Data / Description
I hope this sheds some light on the subject. The + and – appear to be deviations from average. No snow for the Olympics = hotter, snow for DC = colder.


Look at how hot Greenland is. That does not look good for the collapsing ice sheet


Google Maps
Google Maps
Google Maps
The rate of ice coming out of this isfjord could go up exponentially over the next decade or so.

But how do you define "average"? AGW believers talk about the rise in the Earth's "average" temperature, but in an scientific measurement it's necessary to have accurately calibrated instruments. Where were those calibrated instruments 100 years ago?

There seems little doubt that the planet has been warming for the last few hundred years, overlaid on a sinusoidal temperature variation that spans some decades. There's quite a bit of doubt whether human activity has much, if anything, to do with it.

There's also little doubt that when they happen, ice ages happen fast. A few degrees warmer and plants grow better and crop belts move north. In an ice age, billions would perish. The place to put money today is research so we can learn what's really happening, not band aid fixes based on dubious "data" that do little more than enrich Al Gore while impoverishing the rest of us.

-Dana

Sometimes it is easier to beg forgiveness than get permission.

Yes depending on who you talk to they can read anything to suit their argument.

The soot/ice effect is the Albedo effect and is a significant problem which tends to runaway in the melt direction. Yes we find that some parts of the planet are actually getting colder and even some glaciers are growing, but that ignores that almost all glaciers are shrinking at alarming rates. The planet is a very complex thing and not simple to study, and many aspects are still unknown to science. And yes modern measurements are a lot more accurate but we can actually tell what the temp and atmosphere was like millions of years ago with ice core samples and even trees for recent times.

Yes soot levels have dropped for older industrial countries but Co2 levels are still rising, due to rapid economic development in the new economies and the runaway consumption in the west. Other gasses such as Methane have a far greater effect- never in history has the planet had so many ruminant animals such as cattle that belch and fart Methane. Add in the huge amount of forest we have destroyed and we get a serious problem- forests take up CO2 and give O2, this stores carbon and eventually locks it away from the atmosphere as fossil carbon deep in the ground. WE humans have burnt a lot of this stored carbon, some say at least 100 Million years worth of fossil carbon in less than 200 years. That can not be a good thing. Like most things- nature eventually finds a balance and a new equilibrium, but will that allow us to live like today? I doubt it.

When we talk about a small rise in average temp for the globe we must remember that this means the ocean rise a smaller amount and land masses a greater amount, and some spots by a very big amount. Yes a increase in Co2 and warmer weather is good for plants in general but also bad for all other life, the rate of change can be too great for many species to adapt so they become extinct. Increases in CO2 changes the acidity of the oceans and reduces O2 levels aquatic life needs for survival. Here in Australia our Barrier Reef- worlds biggest, is shrinking fast by bleaching from heat and acidity dissolving the coral. Meanwhile up North, the Northwest Passage is becoming open to shipping as the Arctic melts, Polar bears starve to death etc.

The biggest thing besides a warming affect to worry about is the gyrations of climate and weather patterns whilst the earth slowly settles to a new equilibrium- think lots more extreme weather events, in places that never had them in recent history, such storms, heat waves etc will kill and disrupt millions. Some now fertile areas that feed millions will become unsustainable.

America has spent many billions on wars about fuel security, maybe spending a similar amount to reduce the need for imported energy is a lot smarter even if it just creates Jobs and reduces your trade deificit- you know- that thing that has cost Trillions to prop up dodgy banks.

Just a thought

Dana,


I couldn't have said it better myself. If you look from 1970 until 2000 the global warming argument looks really good. But when did it start? 1730. When did James Watt perfect the steam engine? 1764.

Originally Posted by litespeed

The soot/ice effect is the Albedo effect and is a significant problem which tends to runaway in the melt direction.

It actually tends to runaway in both directions. But the earth would need to be a bit cooler to get all ice. There are two stable climates all ice and no ice. Some ice is unstable.

Originally Posted by litespeed

Yes we find that some parts of the planet are actually getting colder and even some glaciers are growing, but that ignores that almost all glaciers are shrinking at alarming rates.

The rate of glacier shrinkage is only alarming if you assume that we can have a stable climate with glaciers in place. We can't. The albedo effect is a very powerful feed back loop. Run away melting started in about 1730!!!.

Originally Posted by litespeed

The planet is a very complex thing and not simple to study, and many aspects are still unknown to science. And yes modern measurements are a lot more accurate but we can actually tell what the temp and atmosphere was like millions of years ago with ice core samples and even trees for recent times.

Yes this is very true. If you look at the temps for the last 65 million years the temp reached a peek 62 million years ago and then had a gradual cooling trend until 1.2 million years ago. Then the temp looks like a saw tooth. All of the species that are alive now have survived multiple swings from ice to warmer. What is killing the species off is competition with man for living space as well as an inability to move north and south as the climate changes because we are in the way.

Originally Posted by litespeed

Yes soot levels have dropped for older industrial countries but Co2 levels are still rising, due to rapid economic development in the new economies and the runaway consumption in the west.

I'd think that total soot levels are headed down as china switches to oil from coal for a lot of their power. More CO2 gets you more plant growth it takes plants for us to live. Warmer = more life. Colder = less life. Chose wisely.

Originally Posted by litespeed

Other gasses such as Methane have a far greater effect- never in history has the planet had so many ruminant animals such as cattle that belch and fart Methane.

termites there are a lot of termites. The peek temp 62 million years ago coincides with the uncovering of sandstone deposits in Utah that if you can find still covered ones contain methane gas. Global warming = good. Global cooling = bad.

Originally Posted by litespeed

Add in the huge amount of forest we have destroyed and we get a serious problem- forests take up CO2 and give O2, this stores carbon and eventually locks it away from the atmosphere as fossil carbon deep in the ground.

Peat bogs sequester carbon. Forests tend to be CO2 neutral. They give off as much CO2 as the trees die as they take up when they grow. Except for the termites that eat the trees they release a large amount of methane. Cutting down trees grinding them up into wood pulp printing stuff on them and then dumping them in a land fill that sequesters atmospheric carbon if you allow the trees to re-grow.

Originally Posted by litespeed

WE humans have burnt a lot of this stored carbon, some say at least 100 Million years worth of fossil carbon in less than 200 years. That can not be a good thing. Like most things- nature eventually finds a balance and a new equilibrium, but will that allow us to live like today? I doubt it.

There is a somewhat good argument that a lot of the oil is left over from when the world was formed. Ice age would be worse than global warming. You can grow crops inside of the arctic circle if it is warm enough but you can't grow crops on top of a glacier. Warmer would the world be like it is today? Nope . Colder can we support our current population? Nope. Chose wisely.

Originally Posted by litespeed

When we talk about a small rise in average temp for the globe we must remember that this means the ocean rise a smaller amount and land masses a greater amount, and some spots by a very big amount. Yes a increase in Co2 and warmer weather is good for plants in general but also bad for all other life, the rate of change can be too great for many species to adapt so they become extinct. Increases in CO2 changes the acidity of the oceans and reduces O2 levels aquatic life needs for survival. Here in Australia our Barrier Reef- worlds biggest, is shrinking fast by bleaching from heat and acidity dissolving the coral. Meanwhile up North, the Northwest Passage is becoming open to shipping as the Arctic melts, Polar bears starve to death etc.

The change from an unstable to a stable environment isn't going to be pretty. The world ocean levels would go up about 40ft. (12m) A lot of the worlds human population would be displaced really bad for business. But the alternative is far far worse. The north west passage opening up would be great for shipping. There is an argument that it was open before (the explorers that went looking for it were following a verbal history that told of it's existence.) With you living in Australia you don't have that much to worry about in an ice age so I can see you not being scared about having one.

Originally Posted by litespeed

The biggest thing besides a warming affect to worry about is the gyrations of climate and weather patterns whilst the earth slowly settles to a new equilibrium- think lots more extreme weather events, in places that never had them in recent history, such storms, heat waves etc will kill and disrupt millions. Some now fertile areas that feed millions will become unsustainable.

Yip But that will happen no matter what as the climate is unstable. We may be able to chose to tip the weather warmer instead of letting the ice age happen.

Originally Posted by litespeed

America has spent many billions on wars about fuel security, maybe spending a similar amount to reduce the need for imported energy is a lot smarter even if it just creates Jobs and reduces your trade deificit- you know- that thing that has cost Trillions to prop up dodgy banks.

Now you have said something That I am actuality working on achieving. Put a $1 surcharge on gasoline in America and that would generate a $100 billion (US 100,000,000,000) subsidy for the purchase of solar cells and electric cars. A good system to drive a car the way that an average American drives would cost about $100K USD. The barke even time with current prices is about 20 years or so. It would actually be cheaper to switch to sunlight than to keep using oil. Now with Large volume production the price should drop precipitously. This runs counter to my goal of global warming but it is good for business.

Originally Posted by litespeed

Just a thought

And a good one at that.